THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 20, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 0.97% downside to 1792 and 0.63% upside to 1821.                                    

                                                                                           

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.56 from 2.57
  • VIX  closed at 14.15 1 day percent change of 2.54%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized q/q, 3Q rev, est. 3.6% (pr. 3.6%)
  • Pers. Consumption, 3Q revision, est. 1.4% (prior 1.4%)
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manuf Activity, Dec., est. 6 (pr 7)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT

    • 9:30am: U.S. Chief Negotiator Dan Mullaney, EU Chief Negotiator Ignacio Garcia-Bercero hold press conference
    • 10am: U.S. Treasurer Rosie Rios signs currency
    • Senate adjournment will follow confirmation of nominations including John Koskinen to lead IRS
    • President Barack Obama, family scheduled to depart for Hawaii for Christmas
    • China’s Vice Premier Wang Yang, U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman chair mtg of U.S. and China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade; Beijing,

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Senate pushes Yellen confirmatione to Jan. in nominee deal
  • Passes defense authorization totaling $625.1b
  • Obama kills health insurance mandate for canceled policies
  • Bankers say agencies’ answer on Volcker CDO rule inadequate
  • SEC internal clashes said to flare over CMBS cases, NYT says
  • Banks said to snitch on FX competitors to avoid EU fines
  • Sycamore to buy Jones Group fashion co. for $1.2b
  • Jazz Pharma. buys rare disease drugmaker Gentium for $1b
  • Banks said preparing for Sprint bid for T-Mobile: WSJ
  • Axiall to tap cheap gas with $3b Louisiana ethylene plant
  • Apple’s Oracle dispute split from patent-infringement suit
  • Apple says demand for Mac Pro outstripping supply: Forbes
  • AmEx merchant settlement allows different debit surcharges
  • Cathay Pacific orders 21 Boeing planes valued at $7.5b
  • Fisker won’t make cars at Delaware GM plant, Carper says
  • TD Bank not focusing on large U.S. retail expansion: CEO
  • Chinese accused of plotting to steal DuPont’s GMO corn

EARNINGS:

    • BlackBerry (BB CN) 7am $(0.46) - Preview
    • CarMax (KMX) 7:35am $0.48
    • Finish Line (FINL) 7:05am $0.02
    • Navistar International (NAV) 7am  $(1.56)  - Preview
    • Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am $0.72 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Wheat Reaches 19-Month Low as Argentine Crop Adds to Supplie
  • Gold Climbs From Lowest Close Since 2010 as Goldman Sees Los
  • Barrick Omen for Gold Miners With $44 Billion Debt: Commoditie
  • Brent Heads for Weekly Gain on Growth Prospects After Fed Mov
  • Copper Rises as Growth Outlook Fuels Closing of Bets on Declin
  • Raw Sugar Rallies for 2nd Day as Robusta to Arabica Coffee Dro
  • WTI-Brent Spread Narrowing as U.S. Exports Record Fuels: Energ
  • Indonesia Must Consider Economic Impact From Ore Ban: Wacik
  • Shanghai Gold Exchange Contract Volume Surges on Price Slump
  • Commodity Funds Post First Outflow Since 2000: Chart of the Da
  • Aluminum Surplus May Widen Through 2015 on Output, Marubeni
  • Refiners Turn to Exports, With 4% Growth Expected: 2014 Outloo
  • Wheat Traders Turn Bullish After Two Weeks of Betting on Decli
  • Rebar Posts Worst Week in a Month on China Cash Crunch Concerns

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more