In preparation for CCL FQ4 2013 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.
EX CARNIVAL BRAND
- Fleetwide booking volumes during the last 12 weeks from the end of June, covering sailings over the next three quarters, are at the same levels – about the same levels as last year. These bookings have been at higher prices versus last year.
- For North American brands, booking volumes during this 12-week period are higher year-over-year at lower prices.
- For EAA brands, booking volumes are lower at nicely higher prices.
CARNIVAL BRAND
- Booking volumes and pricing over the last 12 weeks are both lower year-over-year in the low single-digits and mid-double-digits range respectively.
- Carnival's booking volumes have also shown recent improvement, and during the last six weeks are running higher year-over-year. As Carnival booking volumes steadily increase, we are expecting their cruise pricing to gradually improve over the longer-term.
- Carnival Cruise Lines' brand continues to demonstrate its resilience in the market, maintaining high occupancies albeit at lower prices. The perception and consideration surveys on the Carnival brand continued to show improving trends at a faster pace than originally projected, so we are greatly encouraged by these positive signs.
- Although, Carnival Cruise Lines' pricing is lower than we would like, with the new national advertising campaign and the increase in marketing spend this fall and winter, we do expect to see a recovery of pricing as we cycle into the second half of 2014. Recently, Carnival adopted a strategy of holding firm on pricing, even if its ships sail at slightly lower occupancies. We believe this will make Carnival's pricing recovery more achievable as we move through 2014.
4Q 2013 TRENDS
- On a fleetwide basis, and this excludes Carnival, cumulative occupancies are lower at the same pricing levels as last year.
- For North American brands, excluding Carnival again, occupancies are slightly lower at slightly lower prices.
- Carnival Cruise Lines occupancies for the fourth quarter are lower at lower prices.
- For EAA brands, occupancies are lower year-over-year at slightly higher prices, reflecting the positive patterns we have experienced during the last 12 weeks. Costa brand occupancies and pricing for the fourth quarter are nicely higher.
- North American brand revenue yields in the fourth quarter, excluding Carnival, are expected to be down slightly.
- Carnival Cruise Lines yields in the fourth quarter are expected to be lower, in the double-digits range. And fourth quarter EAA pricing, revenue yields are expected to be higher year-over-year.
1H 2014 TRENDS
- Although, pricing on bookings taken to-date for the first half of 2014 is higher, because we are running behind on occupancies, we are expecting revenue yields will follow the usual pattern of coming down as we close out the first and second quarters.
- As a result on a fleetwide basis, for the first half of the year, we are estimating a low single-digits decrease in revenue yields, in a similar range to the lower yield we experienced in the third and fourth quarters of 2013; this expectation includes the Carnival Cruise Lines yields.
- North American brand yields in the first half of 2014 are expected to be lower year-over-year and EAA brand yields are expected to be higher.
2H 2014 YIELD
- We are ramping up marketing efforts in both North America and Europe this fall and winter and are expecting that revenue yields will turn positive in the second half of the year.
1Q 2014 TRENDS
- On a fleet-wide basis, pricing on bookings taken to-date is higher year-over-year with lower occupancies. For North American brands, excluding Carnival, pricing is higher on lower occupancies. Carnival Cruise Lines pricing is lower on lower occupancies. For EAA brands, pricing on bookings taken to-date is flat year-over-year at lower occupancies.
2Q 2014 TRENDS
- Second quarter of 2014 bookings taken to-date, which is still in the early stages of development, on a fleetwide basis, excluding Carnival, pricing is slightly higher year-over-year at lower occupancies.
- North American brands, pricing is slightly higher at lower occupancies. At this stage, Carnival's pricing is also higher at lower occupancies.
- For EAA brands, pricing is slightly higher at lower occupancies.
- Big increase in Caribbean supply
COSTA
- We expect the company's performance will continue to strengthen over the remainder of this year and throughout 2014. Brand perception surveys for Costa continue to show improvement, particularly in Italy and France; its two most important markets.
- We are forecasting continued revenue yield increases in 2014 for Costa, despite what is still a very challenging European economic environment, especially in Italy.
NA BRANDS
- Our two premium brands, Holland America and Princess, are all expected to have a solid performance in 2014. Our Seabourn brand, although small, is performing extremely well.
COST SAVINGS
- And then as we look at it and look at our total spend and the opportunity to leverage across the brands, I think there will be opportunities, additional opportunities, for cost savings.
% BOOKED
- The ranges that we generally talk about are – for the next quarter, which would be the fourth quarter, would be 85% to 95% booked. The second quarter out, which is the first quarter, 50% to 70%. And then the second quarter, which is three quarters out, 30% to 50% booked. And we have indicated recently that we're at the lower end of those ranges as far as booking patterns are concerned.
