Client Talking Points
Alas, GDP is a lagging indicator. So... as the 10-year yield makes a lower-high versus the Q313 top, look at what Mr. Market is telling you via the leading indicator in our model: The US Dollar. The greenback is down for four consecutive weeks now after being down -0.41% yesterday. #broken
UST 10YR YIELD
Levels matter versus the prior high. If the 10-year yield can’t make a higher high versus the pre-Fed-no-taper September closing high (and we get anything average in an employment report), no-taper can knock 20-30 basis points out of this rate rally. Fast.
Just awesome. Both home prices (+7.7% year-over-year in November versus 6.9% in October) and autos (+7% November versus +4% October) are loving what Americans loved in Q2-Q3 of 2013. What's that? Strengthening purchasing power via a #StrongCurrency. Go Pound.
|FIXED INCOME||8%||INTL CURRENCIES||24%|
Top Long Ideas
Our bullish call on the British Pound was borne out of our Q4 Macro themes call. We believe the health of a nation’s economy is reflected in its currency. We remain bullish on the regime change at the BOE, replacing Governor Mervyn King with Mark Carney. In its October meeting, the Bank of England voted unanimously (9-0) to keep rates on hold and the asset purchase program unchanged. If we look at the GBP/USD cross, we believe the UK’s hawkish monetary and fiscal policy should appreciate the GBP, as Bernanke/Yellen continue to burn the USD via delaying the call to taper.
WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.
Financials sector senior analyst Jonathan Casteleyn continues to carry T. Rowe Price as his highest-conviction long call, based on the long-range reallocation out of bonds with investors continuing to move into stocks. T Rowe is one of the fastest growing equity asset managers and has consistently had the best performing stock funds over the past ten years.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
3.6% GDP and +200k handles on jobs and these morons are going to try no-taper again @federalreserve
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"I knew if I didn't leave my bitterness and hatred behind, I'd still be in prison." - Nelson Mandela
STAT OF THE DAY
Most British workers under 50 will have to work longer than expected after the government unveiled plans to introduce the highest retirement age in the developed world. Under the reforms, the pension age will be linked to rising life expectancy and reflect the U.K. government's belief that workers should spend no more than a third of their adult life in retirement. The state pension age of 68 will now be enforced in the mid 2030s, about 10 years earlier than planned. And by the late 2040s it will rise to 69.
THE MACAU METRO MONITOR, DECEMBER 6, 2013
CASINO LEGISLATION REVIEW PUT ON HOLD Taipei Times
The review of a proposed casino act was placed on hold yesterday as lawmakers opposed to the legislation demanded more time to study all the relevant information. Legislators from the transportation, economic and judiciary committees were yesterday scheduled to review the act governing the management of casino resorts bill proposed by the Executive Yuan. They were also to consider two similar drafts proposed by Independent Legislator Chen Hsuen-sheng and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Alex Tsai. They were also supposed to review an amendment to the International Airport Park Development Act proposed by several legislators including KMT Legislator Chen Ken-te, which would allow casinos to be built within the boundaries of the Taoyuan Aerotropolis project. According to the proposed amendment, casinos would be located in the airport’s free trade zone, and people entering them must hold passports and may be exempt from paying customs tax.
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“All progress comes from the creative minority.”
So, US GDP Growth goes from 0.14% (at this time last year) to 3.6% in Q3 of this year, and all I hear consensus whine about are “inventories.” I wonder if that slope of US #GrowthAccelerating’s line had anything to do with the long-end of the yield curve being up +127 basis points (or Gold crashing) year-over-year…
Newsflash: businesses build inventories when confidence is rising. These are called coincident indicators. Both the US Dollar and US interest rates peaked in Q3 – so did US consumer and business confidence. So the I (Investment) in C+ I + G = GDP, went up.
Would the 2013 growth bears have preferred Investment to go down (and G (government) spending to go up instead)? Who knows. And who actually cares what they think anyway? For them, it’s all rear-view. Mr. Macro Market looks forward.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Now that Bond Yields ripped to a lower-high (vs the SEP 2013 high) on a lagging economic indicator (that was a Q3 GDP report; it’s the end of Q4), and the stock market had another little meth withdrawal on that (“taper-talk” drives them batty), what’s next?
- TREASURY YIELDS = immediate-term TRADE overbought at 2.88% on the UST 10yr
- US EQUITIES = immediate-term TRADE oversold at 1779 on the SP500
- US EQUITY VOLATILITY (VIX) = immediate-term TRADE overbought at 15.58
So, would a bad jobs report be good for stocks (and bad for bonds)? Would another good jobs report be bad for stocks (and good for bonds)? Inquiring “lower-class folks” who don’t get to play at the insider Fed Whale tables want to know…
We mince no words calling this a centrally-planned-casino at this point. And since some of us are pretty darn good at buying bubbles, we feel lucky when stocks and bonds hit the high and low-ends of our risk ranges. It’s all about playing the probabilities, baby!
That’s why, after 5 consecutive no-volume down days for the US stock market (a correction in the SP500 of -1.2%), we bought-the-damn-bubble #BTDB (again) yesterday, taking our Cash position (asset allocation model) down to 38% (started the wk at 58%).
Where do we think US Growth goes from here?
That might be the easiest question to answer since we said US growth would go UP (from 0.14%) 1-year ago.
What could happen if we’re right about that?
- 2014 #OldWall GDP and SP500 consensus will be wrong (again) because it’s taking “forecasts” UP (it’s called anchoring)
- Most rear-view macro investors will probably perpetuate one more series of US stock market tops
- #GrowthSlowing, sequentially (from 3.6%) starts to give the US stock market multiple compression by Q2 of 2014
As most of you know, I’m not a forensic-US-stock-market-multiple-analyst. In fact, I think picking an “earnings number” for the SP500, then licking your finger on what multiple to slap on that is one of the more laughable things I hear people say with a straight face.
I’m more of a market history, math, and behavioral mutt myself. And history tells you that the US stock market:
- Sees multiple expansion when A) GROWTH accelerates and B) INFLATION slows
- Sees multiple compression when A) GROWTH slows and B) INFLATION accelerates
In other words, US economic STAGFLATION periods (1970s, 2010-2012, etc.) saw the SP500 trade at 7-12x earnings and #StrongDollar (deflating the inflation) periods of US real-consumption GROWTH accelerating saw multiples trade anywhere from 17-35x earnings.
Therefore, in my own little mind, provided that I think I know where the slopes of the 2 lines (GROWTH and INFLATION) are going in the next 3-6 months, I can start to prepare the sails of change in my positioning. In Macro, mental flexibility is forward progress.
Our immediate-term Risk Ranges (with TREND bullish or bearish) are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.77-2.88%
Happy b-day to my brother Ryan and best of luck out there today,
This note was originally published at 8am on November 22, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“Computers are useless; they can only give you answers.”
Amen to that, Pablo. It’s amazing how much time and effort we all spent at school and currently spend at work learning strategies and techniques for finding the right answers compared to how little time we spend learning to ask the right questions.
Implicit in any commitment to discovering the truth is a commitment to systematically asking ourselves tough questions – the answers to which may not be derivable from reported data that is inherently backward-looking in nature.
Furthermore, such questions extend well beyond the typical, “Where can I be wrong?”, instead opting to traverse the realm of, “Where am I not even looking?”
With respect to the latter question, we are in a unique position to help. In meetings with clients, it’s clear that our commitment to remaining truly independent (no banking, trading or asset management) helps us foster a level of trust with our clients that does not appear to be abundant in this industry. Having a senior roster loaded with meaningful buyside experience doesn’t hurt either.
Getting right into it, Keith, Ryan Fodor and I spent much of this past week up-and-down the west coast visiting with clients and prospective clients from various strategies and disciplines.
As usual, the topics of discussion ranged far and wide, but if there was one central theme throughout all of the meetings it would’ve been the general lack of conviction and/or answers with respect to the three most important factors in macro risk management. Below we introduce the relevant debates and where we currently stand, recognizing that we need to and will do more work on certain topics:
- Where does domestic economic growth go from here? We think the trend in US growth data will be negative (2nd derivative) over at least the next 3-6M.
- What are the catalysts for #GrowthSlowing? Fundamentally speaking, we think monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty (mostly monetary policy uncertainty) will weigh on consumer and business confidence. Furthermore, GDP comps get difficult as CPI/GDP deflator comps get easier, at the margins.
- Regarding the equity market, will growth-related style factors continue to work? Not likely. We would sell/underweight over-exposed names.
- Where does inflation go from here? We think domestic disinflation is now a rear-view phenomenon as easy comps and a weak dollar provide upward pressure on CPI and PPI readings. We would expect both TIPS and Gold to make higher-lows (to all-time lower-highs) in this scenario.
- What about declining energy prices? That’s a major offset to our Growth Slowing as Inflation Accelerates (i.e. Quad #3) call and a primary reason we’re not more explicitly negative on so-called “risk assets” more broadly. We’re not wed to the aforementioned fundamental view and would happily change our minds if we saw material declines in the crude oil market – something we do not expect to see as long as the USD remains bearish from a TREND perspective.
- When does the Fed taper? Probably not one week before Christmas (the FOMC meets DEC 17-18). In fact, we are increasingly of the view that the Fed is aware of the systemic risk present in the bond market and is potentially setting up to never commence tapering. They will likely accomplish this by setting far-too-aggressive targets for GDP growth and shifting their focus to combating a perceived risk of deflation, at the margins.
- What happens if the Fed does taper? If Janet Yellen isn’t as smart as we’re giving her credit for and she thinks the bond market can withstand a shock to the system, we think tapering will be short-lived (think: $85B per month down to $75B per month back up to ~$100B per month). Credit markets need two-way flows to function property and QE is really the only source of meaningful liquidity amid bond mutual fund and ETF outflows (-$7.3B in the most recent week). The Street’s inability to take on meaningful inventory means: A) most of the risk has been transferred to buy-side balance sheets; and B) buy-siders are ultimately forced to sell to each other during market routs. That invariably leads to gaps down in prices when macro fundamentals (i.e. the flows) change. Think about what happens to bond prices when levered-long bond fund A tries to unwind its illiquid positions at the same time Bill Gross (MBS) and Michael Hasenstab (EM) are trying to unwind theirs…
- How will tapering – if any – affect the stock market? We continue to think the great rotation out of debt and back into stocks is: A) still on; and B) will provide a structural bid to the equity market. That said, however, we now think that bid could be from lower prices as proxy hedging activity from distressed fixed income investors (not to be confused with investors that invest in distressed debt) weighs on broader asset prices in the interim.
- What happens if the Fed is still engaged in LSAP when we slip into the next recession? To be clear, we aren’t calling for an “R-word” here, but that’s definitely something to think about. Implicit in the current prices of many so-called “risk assets” is the assumption that the Fed can “smooth” the economic cycle and/or do away with credit risk altogether. What happens to those asset prices when everyone figures out they (i.e. the Fed) can’t – all at the same time? Next year will mark the fifth year since our last recession ended; the average length of time between the 12 recessions since WWII has been just that.
We’ll obviously be focused on answering these questions in greater detail in our research notes and presentations in the coming weeks and months; please feel free reach out to us in the interim if you’d like to discuss anything in real-time.
Going back to our opening discussion, there’s really only two ways we can add value with a business model like ours:
- Making you money
- Making you think
Hopefully today we did our job with respect to the latter category.
On an unrelated note, if any of you plan to be in New Haven this Saturday for The Game, shoot us a quick email and we can meet up for a beer at the tailgate.
Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows:
UST 10yr Yield 2.63-2.83%
Keep your head on a swivel,
Associate: Macro Team