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#EOW (End of World)?

Client Talking Points

VIX

Volatility made another higher-low last week (signaling a short-term SPY stop), but then it failed at Hedgeye TREND resistance of 14.92 yesterday. This is what we call a very manageable risk range for US Equities. The VIX is now overbought .

S&P 500

Witness the 3-day correction of -0.7%. That's called bear scraps.So keep moving out there or get mauled. Fund flows have been epic (and they haven’t been put to work). Bottom line is you want to be buying red and selling green… and looking mean. 

DAX

We still like European growth equities more than U.S. equities right now. Germany (DAX) held our Hedgeye TRADE support of 9138 after another #GrowthAccelerating data point in the November Services PMI of 55.7 (versus 54.5 last month). #EuroBulls 

Asset Allocation

CASH 58% US EQUITIES 4%
INTL EQUITIES 4% COMMODITIES 4%
FIXED INCOME 4% INTL CURRENCIES 26%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
FXB

Our bullish call on the British Pound was borne out of our Q4 Macro themes call. We believe the health of a nation’s economy is reflected in its currency. We remain bullish on the regime change at the BOE, replacing Governor Mervyn King with Mark Carney. In its October meeting, the Bank of England voted unanimously (9-0) to keep rates on hold and the asset purchase program unchanged.  If we look at the GBP/USD cross, we believe the UK’s hawkish monetary and fiscal policy should appreciate the GBP, as Bernanke/Yellen continue to burn the USD via delaying the call to taper.

WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.

TROW

Financials sector senior analyst Jonathan Casteleyn continues to carry T. Rowe Price as his highest-conviction long call, based on the long-range reallocation out of bonds with investors continuing to move into stocks.  T Rowe is one of the fastest growing equity asset managers and has consistently had the best performing stock funds over the past ten years.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Remember the fear mongering in OCT about a US "Debt Default"? a consensus gift @KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin

STAT OF THE DAY

U.S. private employers added 215,000 jobs in November, topping expectations, according to ADP, reinforcing expectations the Fed may soon begin to taper. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP Report would show a gain of 173,000 jobs. The high end of the estimates was 205,000. October's number was revised to 184,000 from the initially reported 130,000. (Reuters)



Spiking Skew

“My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.” -Thomas Jefferson

 

Over the Thanksgiving break, I started reading “Thomas Jefferson: The Art of Power” by Jon Meacham.   For many of you Americans (like Keith I’m Canadian), undoubtedly studying the founding fathers is old hat, but for me the book has a number of revealing insights.

 

The key insight relates to the quote at the outset.  Specifically, this idea that too much government may, in fact, be too much government.  No doubt there are some pensioners in Detroit who are thinking just that as they are beginning to realize that the “government guarantee” of their pension is not as solid as they believed it to be.

 

Like most great men, Jefferson had his faults.  Regardless, the author of the Declaration of Independence was a stalwart protector of individual liberty, especially in the face of the threat of government.  Compared to the Jeffersonian era, the individual American certainly has much broader freedoms than he, and especially she, would have had in the early 1800s.

 

The one caveat to this of course is in the area of economic freedom, specifically taxation.  From the Jeffersonian period to the early 20th century, the government was both a small percentage of the economy and direct taxation was originally very limited.  On the last point, as recently as 1895 the Supreme Court of the United States actually ruled that federal income tax was unconstitutional.

 

Today as we “gladly” hand over 1/3+ of our incomes to the federal government and the government comprises 20%+ of the economy, it certainly begs the question of whether we have the personal economic freedoms that our Founding Fathers envisioned.

 

Back to the global macro grind . . .

 

Related to the topic above, one sneaky macro positive that has been emerging domestically is a shrinking of the federal budget deficit.  Over the past four years, the federal budget deficit has been cut in half from the peak level of $1.4 trillion.  Certainly, a $700-ish billion budget deficit is still too large, but in this regard the trend is definitely our friend, especially as it relates to U.S. dollar tailwinds.

 

Sadly, none of today’s current politicians have the political acumen of Thomas Jefferson, so the primary method to halt federal government spending growth has been for the Tea Party to effectively hijack the government, which most recently led to a government shutdown.

 

In 2014, we may have déjà vu all over again.  Consider the federal government catalysts we have in front of us in the next three months:

  • December 13th – The bipartisan budget committee is supposed to report back on budget / compromise progress;
  • January 15th – The Current Continuing Resolution runs out;  and
  • February 7th – The next debt ceiling deadline. . .

The threat of more negative government catalysts is actually coming at a really complacent and inopportune time for the U.S. equity markets. Specifically, the VIX’s monthly average price was just under 13 in November and at the lowest level we’ve seen in over two years.  As many of you well know, there is an inverse correlation between the VIX, a measure of volatility, and the price of the SP500.  Suffice it to say, the equity volatility ball is sufficiently under water . . .

 

In the Chart of the Day, we highlight the SKEW Index compared to the VIX index.  As the chart shows, SKEW is spiking and historically SKEW has been a decent leading indicator of volatility.  Intuitively this makes sense as investors are becoming more compelled to hedge exposure given the highs in the market and the fact that year-end is fast approaching. 

A potential spike in volatility and decline in equities also makes sense given a number of other signs of a near term top.

 

Consider a couple of headlines from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters from yesterday:

  • “More Hedge Funds Turn to Long-only Strategies”
  • “Short Sellers Trying to Cope”

No doubt, this has been a challenging year for short sellers as stocks with high short interest have outperformed meaningfully, but when more than half of hedge funds launch or plan to launch long only strategies it does reek of capitulation.  (And no, the Hedgeye Long Only ETF won’t be launching anytime soon!)

 

Before signing off, I also wanted to remind you of Hedgeye’s Energy Best Idea call on Boardwalk Partners (BWP) this Thursday at 11am.  BWP is a $6.4 billion market cap MLP primarily engaged in the transportation and storage of natural gas in the south/central US.  The diversified holding company Loews Corp. (L) owns the 2% GP interest in BWP, all IDRs (currently in the 50/50 split), and 52% of the BWP’s outstanding common units.

 

BWP is a high-conviction short idea given the Company’s deteriorating base business, aggressive accounting, high leverage, unsustainable distribution, valuation.  If this thesis sounds a little like our calls on Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Linn Energy (LINE), it should.  We think the valuation of the MLP sector is grossly overstating the intrinsic value of the underlying businesses held in these structures.  If you’d like to get access to the call, email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Spiking Skew - SKEW

 

Spiking Skew - 12 4 2013 8 07 41 AM


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December 4, 2013

December 4, 2013  - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

December 4, 2013  - 2a

December 4, 2013  - 3A

December 4, 2013  - 4A

December 4, 2013  - 5A

December 4, 2013  - 6A

December 4, 2013  - 7A

December 4, 2013  - 8A

December 4, 2013  - 9A

 

BEARISH TRENDS

December 4, 2013  - 10A

December 4, 2013  - 11A
December 4, 2013  - 12A

December 4, 2013  - 13A


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 4, 2013

 

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 0.62% downside to 1784 and 1.11% upside to 1815.                                     

                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.51 from 2.50
  • VIX  closed at 14.55 1 day percent change of 2.25%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov. 29 (prior -0.3%)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Nov., est. 170k (prior 130k)
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Oct., est. -$40b (prior -$41.8b)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing, Nov., est. 55 (prior 55.4)
  • 10am: Sept., Oct. new home sales; delayed by govt. shutdown
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 2pm: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book

GOVERNMENT:

    • Sec. of State John Kerry attends NATO mtg in Brussels
    • 9:30am: House Oversight and Govt Reform Cmte hears from Brookings, Mercatus, Cato experts on rollout of healthcare.gov
    • 9:50am: Education Sec. Arne Duncan at Federal Student Aid Training Conf., answers questions on Obama’s proposal to make college more affordable for middle-class Americans
    • 10am: House Energy and Commerce Cmte panel hears from policy institutes, think tanks on ACA, Medicare Advantage
    • 11am: Boeing CEO, Business Roundtable Chairman Jim McNerney holds conf. call to discuss CEO Economic Outlook Survey
    • 11:20am: President Obama speaks on economy at CAP event
    • 1pm: House Small Business Cmte hears from National Restaurant Assn on effects of Affordable Care Act

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • European Commission fines banks EU1.71b for rate rigging
  • JPMorgan said to snub Euribor deal
  • Deutsche Bank extends multi-party chatroom ban to fixed income
  • Merck, Lilly said to be interested in Novartis veterinary unit
  • Cyber Monday sales rise ~20%, Comscore says
  • China Mobile license paves way for world’s largest 4G network
  • Bats sees completing Direct Edge deal in 1Q
  • Ireland exits Bank of Ireland $2.4b preferred share stake
  • British probe to clear Huawei of allowing spying
  • Nokia/Microsoft: EU provisional deadline

EARNINGS:

    • Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, $(0.25)
    • Avago Technologies (AVGO) 4:05pm, $0.81
    • Brown-Forman (BF/B) 7:45am, $0.91
    • Express (EXPR) 7am, $0.25
    • Guess? (GES) 4:03pm, $0.38
    • Korn/Ferry Intl (KFY) 4:01pm, $0.34
    • Mattress Firm (MFRM) 4:01pm, $0.54
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 7:15am, C$2.09
    • Synopsys (SNPS) 4:05pm, $0.55
    • Verint Systems (VRNT) 4:05pm, $0.64
    • Wet Seal (WTSL) 4:05pm, $(0.12)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Record Rice Inventories in Thailand Jumping 17% as Exports Climb
  • Brazil Corn-to-Soy Switch Foreshadows Record Glut: Commodities
  • OPEC Seen Keeping Output Cap; Naimi Says Market in Best Shape
  • LME Is Reviewing Future of London’s Last Open-Outcry Trade Pit
  • WTI Rises on U.S. Crude Supply Drop as Discount to Brent Shrinks
  • Gold Falls to Five-Month Low as Silver Drops on Fed Taper Bets
  • Wheat Climbs on Speculation Cold Snap May Hurt U.S. Winter Crop
  • Copper Climbs Before Reports Seen Showing More Hiring in U.S.
  • Robusta Extends Gains After Biggest Rally Since 2011; Sugar Adds
  • Rebar in Shanghai Advances to Seven-Week High as Iron Ore Jumps
  • Soybean Meal Seen Falling 8.3% on Reversal: Technical Analysis
  • Ethanol Mills Face Closures as Obama Cuts Target: Energy Markets
  • Natural Gas Near $4 Makes Costly Appalachia Coal Basins Viable
  • Iran Will Meet Intl Oil Companies in March in London: Minister

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


The Great Machine

This note was originally published at 8am on November 20, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Unlike an inexorable, Newtonian “great machine”, the economy is not a closed system.”

-Geoger Gilder

 

That’s a quote from the end of lucky chapter 13 of one of the best markets/economics books of 2013, Knowledge and Power, by George Gilder. I like this book because it’s the precise opposite of what your central planning overlords @FederalReserve think.

 

Yesterday, at the Keynesian-economics-Club-of-Washington-D.C. event, Ben Bernanke proclaimed his mystery of faith to his head nodders: “the surest path to recovery” is for the Fed to do more (read: no taper).

 

Right, right. It’s a good thing he’s sure.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

This, of course, is the basic divide between how most of us market-practitioners think about markets/economies versus some un-elected and unaccountable academic theorist does. Core to Fed group-think is certainty whereas what we do is embrace uncertainty.

 

Markets and economies aren’t some theoretical “great machine” that behaves in “equilibrium.” Markets and economies are dynamic and non-linear. Anyone who has studied history understands that.

 

I’ve been on the road seeing clients in Los Angeles and San Francisco this week. I’ll be in Vegas tonight and Phoenix tomorrow. No matter where I go, I get the same feedback from market-practitioners about Fed policy – uncertainty.

 

At the same time, these dudes (and dudettes) backslapping one another at the Fed think that they have this completely under control. At one point yesterday, Bernanke said that his “forward rate guidance is helping the economy.”

 

Pardon?

 

Taper, no-taper, taper, no taper, maybe-taper, no taper, change goal posts on taper, don’t taper…

 

It’s a certified circus at this point.

 

The smartest investors I meet with have the humility to tell people that they have no idea how this ends. So that’s comforting, right? Not only one of the sharpest clients we have, but one of the best performers in 2013 YTD, summarized that this he-said-she-said-taper-talk thing has given him a tremendous amount of conviction in one position – cash.

 

“Keith, with all of the illiquidity and policy risk factors building out there, I really like cash.”

 

Indeed.

 

After effectively day-trading Yellen’s predictable behavior last week, I’ve gone from 48% cash in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model to 60% this morning. But I was at 66% cash yesterday morning, and bought-the-damn-bubble in a few things on red again yesterday.

 

Day-trading? Yep. I have no problem with that. Do you? #GetActive

 

I realize its below these uber intellectual types at the “Economics Club of Washington” to risk manage (read: trade) the market risk they are superimposing on us every day. And I kind of like that. Maybe they’ll label me a lower-class-trader, or something like that.

 

Moving along…

 

What’s my call? It’s been a fantastic year to be long US #GrowthAccelerating (from 0.14% GDP with the SP500 at 1360 in Q412 to 2.84% GDP Q313 and US stocks at all-time highs), and now, on up days, it’s time to raise cash.

 

Looking at both real-time market indicators (Russell2000 growth has been making lower highs since locking in its all-time high on October 29th) and high-frequency economic data, it appears to us that the slope of the line on US growth is peaking.

 

Since what happens on the margin matters most, if and when the US economy slows (from here) to say 2% (or 1.6%, which is now the downward bound in our GIP model for US GDP Growth in 2014), what do you think the top performing Style Factor in US Equities (GROWTH) is going to do?

 

No worries, you don’t have to guess – that style factor is already starting to do what you should expect it to do – slow. As US equity market momentum slows (on lower and lower volumes), both the Fed and its nodders are going to get lulled to sleep.

 

Moreover, I think the Fed will cheer on the #GrowthSlowing data as more reason not to taper… and, in doing so, they’ll suck in every last lemming who hasn’t been long US stocks in 2013 to buy the bubble.

 

How messed up is that? I have no idea on timing, but oh how this “great machine” of Keynesian certainty is going to fall.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.67-2.81%

SPX 1778-1809

VIX 11.85-13.88

USD 80.48-81.36

Brent 103.68-108.69

Gold 1260-1303

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

The Great Machine - Chart of the Day

 

The Great Machine - Virtual Portfolio


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