Retail First Look: 6/22/09


Am I the only one who feels like the chamber is locked and loaded, and the Retail gun is waiting to shoot - but it simply does not know in which direction?  The group was down less than 1% last week, tightly tracking the broader market after a blistering 40% (2.5x to 1) run vs. the S&P. Yes, the stocks have finally stopped going up on good news, but even with all the incremental data points about how weak sales have been over the past 3 weeks, the group is largely looking through it. At 15.5x forward earnings? That does not leave me in my comfort zone.

 I think the crux of it all is that 'the E matters.' I know I said this last week, so I hate to be repetitive. But after being on the road for a few days one of the dominant themes that came out was that people are - without a doubt - looking into 2010. But don't seem to delineate between companies that are proactively making decisions right now to drive 2010 growth and earnings (UA, RL, PSS, WSM), versus others that are cutting SG&A and Capex for the wrong reasons and will be left with little to stand on in 2010 when they need it most. Those will set up to be the best shorts. I've got my eye on easily half a dozen (WRC, JNY, GIL, Adidas - to name a few) - but it is early. Anyone can print good numbers if they so choose, but at what cost?



Key calendar events to look out for.

  • Deutsche Bank - German Austrian Conference, Frankfurt June 23, 2009 - Adidas participating



Some Notable Call Outs

  • Embedded in Carmax's first quarter results were some interesting trends.  SUV sales were up 7% year-over-year, rebounding off of weakness last year when gas prices were still very high.  Compacts, mid-size cars, and trucks decreased by 5% for the quarter.  Interestingly, following the Chrysler bankruptcy, residual values and sales volumes on used vehicles remain unchanged.
  • According to the NRF, Americnas spend an average of $130 on Mother's Day gifts compared to $90 for Dad.
  • While Yue Yuen posted solid interim 2009 results owing to stable demand from brand name customers, further consolidation in the footwear manufacturing industry, and strong domestic sales, the company highlighted a 1.6% decline in sales in the first two months of the 3Q. Should top-line results end up down in Q3, it will be the first time in over 5 years, since March '04. 
  • Smith & Wesson management remarked in its updated Q4 results that demand for handguns and rifles remain strong as evidenced in their growing backlog; however, Barron's suggests the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System reveals slowing trends for background checks suggesting fewer gun sales. While there is no doubt that post-election gun demand has fueled earnings growth, the acquisition of Universal Safety Response is critical to diversifying the company's earning streams and should therefore be less effected than it's close competitor Ruger (NYSE: RGR) when demand wanes.  (call at 5pm today)



ZachHammer's overview of items you're unlikely to find in the general press.

  • Changes in the bankruptcy code have complicated the quest for retail reincarnation - and the evaporation of financing in the past nine months has made it even harder. Since the rewriting of the bankruptcy law in 2005, debtors are in a race against time with a 120-day period to file a plan of reorganization (and the possibility of a 180-day extension) where debtors have an initial 120-day period to assume or reject leases. Previously, there were unlimited extensions to both time periods, as well as more lenders ready to work with the debtors. So now retailers have to make business decisions as soon as they file, and often don't get the chance to operate through the crucial Christmas selling period to determine if they've made the right decisions. If one isn't likely, they've usually pushed for a liquidation, Gottlieb said. Just ask Steve & Barry's, Mervyns and Gottschalks. <>
  • The German state of Bavaria has agreed to grant financial aid to the struggling Quelle catalogue business, a subsidiary of the insolvent Arcandor Group. Bavaria agreed to contribute 21 million euros to a planned government guarantee of 50 million euros, or $69.5 million. Quelle currently lacks the funds to print its fall-winter catalogue and to secure orders; Bavaria's 21 million euros would cover the catalogue costs. <>
  • Carrefour to Sell or Close 20 Express Stores in Poland, Parkiet Reports - Carrefour SA, Europe's biggest retailer, plans to sell or shut more than 20 Carrefour Express stores in Poland, Parkiet reported, citing Maria Cieslikowska, spokeswoman at Carrefour's Polish unit.  <>
  • Footwear News, total 2008 pay packages for the highest-paid footwear executives rose 13 percent in 2008, though at a slower pace than the prior year's 14 percent growth. On average, management at the 26 publicly held retailers and vendors tracked earned total pay packages of $3 million last year versus $2.6 million in 2007. The increase was attributable to employment contracts put in place years ago, when business was brighter, guaranteeing their 2008 salary. <>
  • Sperry Top-Sider's famous boat shoe is celebrating its 75th anniversary in 2010, but executives at the brand are hoping a strategic growth plan will drive sales far beyond next year. Sperry has spent the last 18 months expanding into new markets, introducing new performance technology and growing the women's mix. More specifically, the brand has solidified product and marketing in three areas: American Original, Authentic Performance and Enduring Style. <>
  • A growing number of footwear brands are committed to "greening" their products, but with an increasingly fractured supply chain, guaranteeing the sustainability of every component, process, and source is no easy feat. Earlier this month, environmental watchdog group Greenpeace released a report (covering 2005 to date) saying that illegal hides were making their way into the footwear supply chain - and mentioning Adidas, Gucci, Nike, Timberland and Clarks as potential, possibly unwitting end users. The report, "Slaughtering the Amazon," alleged that some leather sourced from Brazil originated on illegal cattle ranches in the Amazon rainforest that contribute to deforestation.  <>
  • Erke, the Chinese tennis apparel company, has reached an agreement to become the designated apparel supplier for Shanghai ATP 1000 matches during 2009-2013. The Shanghai ATP Masters 1000 tournament, which will occur around October each year, is second only to the world's four Grand Slam tennis tournament and regarded as the top tennis tournament in Asian region. <>
  • Spending, Home Sales in U.S. Probably Rose as Consumers Gained Confidence - Consumer spending in the U.S. probably rose in May for the first time in three months and home sales increased as Americans became more confident the recession will end this year, economists said before reports this week. <>
  • Kurt Geiger has inked a licensing and distribution deal with US footwear firm Nine West just one month after the US firm severed ties with its former UK partner Shoe Studio Group. <>
  • Skechers recently ran a variety of display advertisement campaigns. It opts to use the services of ad networks to place ads on thousands of sites aggregated by the ad networks across the Internet. For this select group of campaigns, Skechers achieved a 283% return on ad spend, $2.67 million in revenue and 172 million ad impressions. <>
  • Traffic falls or is flat at top three home and garden retail sites in May -It seems fewer consumers spent time and money cultivating their lawns and gardens in May. As a result, the top three home and garden e-retailers cultivated poor traffic numbers last month. <>
  • Product sales of the 2009 NBA Champion Los Angeles Lakers have surpassed previous championship merchandise sales at New York City's The NBA Store and Lakers' product sales more than doubled last year's sales within the first two days after the team won its 15th title, reported the retailer. Meanwhile, adidas and Wheaties have introduced a special-edition Lakers champions T-shirt, featuring a picture of the commemorative box with the entire Lakers' team. <>
  • Ahmedabad, India (popularly known as the city of textile industries) has become a robust retail destination quite recently with the launch of five malls in quick succession. The city has also been witnessing a series of infrastructural development and has already emerged as one of the most promising cities in the country in terms of economic prosperity. The city formally witnessed organised retail boom with the launch of 3.24 lakh square feet Gallops Mall, followed by Himalaya Mall and the trend is enhanced when 4.5 lakh square feet Iscon Mega Mall on SG Highway opened its door for brands including Tommy Hilfiger, Giordano, Esprit, Westside, Benetton, Wills Lifestyle, ColorPlus and Reliance with Mega Mart as one of its anchor tenants, the shopping behaviour of the local residents are getting transformed.  <>


RESEARCH EDGE PORTFOLIO: (Comments by Keith McCullough):


06/19/2009 10:33 AM


My team has done plenty to signal our turning negative on consumer in the last week. Being patient on price was my responsibility. Selling high today. KM



Retail First Look: 6/22/09 - Calendar


If MCD goes after the premium segment in August, it will not be good for CKR

According to the Chicago Tribune (they always seem to get internal company documents), the premium Angus burger will be rolled out in August. The document refers to a national launch for the one-third-pound Angus burger between Aug. 3 and Aug. 30.

McDonald's began testing the burger in Southern California in March 2007. It is made from made from a higher grade of beef than other McDonald's burgers and it will become the most expensive U.S. sandwich on the menu, priced at about $4.

Last fall management said they wouldn't roll out the Angus nationally in a weak economy. Lower beef prices are likely the reason for the launch. Don Thompson told the franchise community that the Angus is a "Big Opportunity" because beef costs are down. This could also mean that McDonald's can introduce the product with lots of coupons to stimulate trial. You can see it now, a coupon for a free latte with the purchase of an Angus to boost McCafe sales or vice versa!

I see this as being a big negative for CKE Restaurants (CKR). While the Angus burger has been in Southern California since 2007, a more aggressive approach to the pricing of MCD's premium product will hurt Carl's Jr. As it is, Carl's Jr. is already struggling with its premium pricing strategy and MCD is not going to make it any easier.

Lastly, I have not seen a QSR chain generate incremental traffic by introducing premium products.

As an aside, I'm starting to see a lot of ads for the MAC snack wrap....... Now this looks good to me!

McDonald's - GOING PREMIUM - macsnack



The tourism authorities of Macau and Shenzhen will carry out joint promotions in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan in 2010. In July, the two tourism authorities will meet again to discuss details about the establishment of a mechanism for management of tourism and information exchange. The two sides also agreed to publish a joint brochure to promote Macau-Shenzhen as multi-destination.

In 2008, Macau received 22.9 million tourists and Shenzhen roughly 60 million both foreigners and Chinese.


The financial crisis has brought significant cuts to the number of flights serving Macau, as carriers struggle to respond to the massive drop in cargo volumes and passenger traffic. 

China Eastern Airlines has cancelled all of its scheduled flights to and from the gaming hub in the first three months of the year, compared with an already dismal 67.7% cancellation rate in the second half of last year, figures from the Macau Civil Aviation Authority show.

In the first quarter, Fujian-based Xiamen Airlines slashed 59% of Macau flights, with Malaysia Airlines and debt-laden East Star, a private carrier, cutting 38% and 40% of their Macau flights, respectively.  Troubled carrier Air Macau cancelled 9% of its flights in the first quarter.

Aviation Authority president Simon Chan Wing-hung said, in a written reply to local legislators, that the cancellations were not solely caused by the effects of the financial crisis.  Mr. Chan also points out that the increase in the number of flights between the mainland and Taiwan had an effect on Macau flights.

In the first four months of the year, passenger traffic in Macau fell 21.7 per cent from a year ago, while cargo volumes plummeted 65.7 per cent, according to figures from Macau International Airport. Aircraft movements have declined 22.4 per cent over the same period.


Macau's Department of Health confirmed another two cases of swine flu over the weekend, taking the total of infected people in the territory to three.  One of the new cases was a female flight attendant from Viva Macau that flew to Sydney, Jakarta, and Tokyo between June 16 and 18.  The second case was detected at Kiang Wu Hospital, a private healthcare unit in Macau, and was a 54 year-old man who had recently stayed in Toronto for 17 days.

Despite the third confirmed case, the level of alert remains on "five" as all cases so far have been imported from abroad.


Ng Sek Io and Lei Kin Iun have teamed up to run for the Legislative Assembly's directly elected seats. The two delivered their voters' signatures to the Public Administration and Civil Service Bureau (SAFP) on Friday to confirm their legitimate existence but the list of candidacy has not yet been confirmed, according to the Va Kio Journal.

Ng Sek Io, the director of the United Free Union of Gaming and Construction Workers of Macau, told Macau Daily Times via the telephone that he will probably be the first candidate and Lei the second candidate.

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%

Chasing The Tails

"Dream as if you'll live forever.  Live as if you you'll die today."
                                               -James Dean
We've sent Keith to Scotland for the week to get some rest, smoke a few cigars, and hopefully improve his golf game.  As a result, different members of our research team are going to take turns writing the Early Look this week, and applying our own unique individual lens to the interconnected world of global macro risk management.
Ironically, Keith and I have very different modus operandi when it comes to approaching every research day.  He operates under a strict regimen that incorporates getting into the office at exactly the same time.  My daily process is more based on chaos theory, or is at least chaotic. I get in every day at a different time, take a different route, and read a different collection of articles every morning (my girlfriend calls me the anti-type A).   
Despite these differences, Keith and I have worked together effectively for many years, starting on the hockey rink at Yale, working together at a major hedge fund in New York, and finally building a business that, we believe, is reinventing a broken sell side research model.  We sell our research for a simple fee, produce it real time, and have no conflicts of interests that are ever-present in banking, trading, or a prop desk.  
In terms of how we operate on our Macro Research Team, Keith focuses on the day-to-day grind of the market, while I spend more time thinking and writing about the longer term trends.   As the James Dean quote above implies, Keith manages risk like every day is the last, while I dream about the investment trends of the future.   We call these longer term trends TAILs, and it's my job to chase them.  
A TAIL, to us, is a theme and price that has duration of up to 3 years.  Often ideas with longer duration are less obvious, hence the term tail, which is a statistical term that is used to refer to the extreme area of a distribution.
When we look at the global investment landscape, we see a number of themes that are sitting there out there on the TAIL, these include:
1.       Demographic share taking  - Globally, we are seeing the Middle East and Asia take massive population share and this will only accelerate in the coming years (these regions are growing at 2.0% per annum), as the former Soviet Union and Europe have stagnant population growth patterns (growing at less than 0.5% per annum).  Domestically, we are seeing the emergence of a powerful demographic know as the Millennials (those born between 1), which will be much larger than the cohort before them, Gen X,  given that live births in the U.S. reached 4MM for first time since 1965 in 1985, and have stayed at that level since.  Companies that are positioned for age groups and regions that are taking population share, will inevitably have higher organic growth rates than their peers.
2.       Scarcity of resources - When we think of scarcity of resources, we are referring primarily to oil.  According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, from 2004 - 2008 global supply of oil grew at a CAGR of 0.5% and demand for oil grew at CAGR of 0.8%.  Despite massive investment in exploration and production from 2004 - 2008, the supply of oil globally barely budged.  If it were not for the global recession of late 2008 / early 2009, which will lead to an estimated decline of -2.9% in oil demand in 2009, the global oil market would be incredibly tight.  The reality is that the recession has only prolonged the inevitable tightness of world oil supply and demand.  Oil speculators aside, the reality remains that with any economic recovery we will see a tight oil market for years to come with the potential for exponential increases in the price of oil in the foreseeable future.
3.       Potential loss of American dominance - President Obama is approaching foreign policy with a very unique strategy versus his predecessors.  He is reaching out to our perceived enemies such as Iran and militant Islam broadly, and owning up to historical transgressions of the U.S. government.  This policy has the potential to make us look weak and embolden our enemies, or alternatively encourage them to engage in diplomacy, which could hasten the spread of peace.  To date his strategies appear to have mixed results.  On the economic front, China and Russia continue to publicly denigrate the U.S. dollar and questions its dominance.  While on the national security front, North Korea, as of this weekend, is threatening to send missiles towards Hawaii.  Additionally, Iran continues forward with its nuclear program and appears to be suppressing the popular support for Mir Hossein Mousavi despite pleas from President Obama to do otherwise.  The U.S. currently represents roughly 25% of global GDP, therefore any major shift in U.S. economic or foreign policy dominance will have a material impact on the global investment landscape.

Themes on the TAIL are not always actionable, but often accelerate into a closer time frame sooner than we expect.  Chasing the TAILs should be part of any proactive risk management process.
Keep your head up and eyes on the tail,
Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director


EWZ - iShares Brazil-President Lula da Silva is the most economically effective of the populist Latin American leaders; on his watch policy makers have kept inflation at bay with a high rate policy and serviced debt -leading to an investment grade credit rating. Brazil has managed its interest rate to promote stimulus. Brazil is a major producer of commodities. We believe the country's profile matches up well with our re-flation theme.

QQQQ - PowerShares NASDAQ 100 - We bought Qs on 6/10 to be long the US market. The index includes companies with better balance sheets that don't need as much financial leverage.

EWC - iShares Canada - We want to own what THE client (China) needs, namely commodities, as China builds out its infrastructure. Canada will benefit from commodity reflation, especially as the USD breaks down. We're net positive Harper's leadership, which diverges from Canada's large government recent history, and believe next year's Olympics in resource rich British Columbia should provide a positive catalyst for investors to get long the country.   

XLE - SPDR Energy - We think Energy works higher if the Buck breaks down.  

CAF - Morgan Stanley China Fund - A closed-end fund providing exposure to the Shanghai A share market, we use CAF tactically to ride the wave of returning confidence among domestic Chinese investors fed by the stimulus package. To date the Chinese have shown leadership and a proactive response to the global recession, and now their number one priority is to offset contracting external demand with domestic growth.

TIP- iShares TIPS - The iShares etf, TIP, which is 90% invested in the inflation protected sector of the US Treasury Market currently offers a compelling yield on TTM basis of 5.89%. We believe that future inflation expectations are currently mispriced and that TIPS are a compelling way to own yield on an inflation protected basis, especially in the context of our re-flation thesis.


EWI - iShares Italy - Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has made headlines for his private escapades, and not for his leadership in turning around the struggling economy. Like its European peers, Italian unemployment is on the rise and despite improved confidence indices, industrial production is depressed and there are faint signs at best that the consumer is spending. From a quantitative set-up, the Italian ETF holds a substantial amount Financials (43.10%), leverage we don't want to be long of.

XLY - SPDR Consumer Discretionary - We shorted XLY on 6/19 as our team has turned negative on consumer in the last week.  

XLP - SPDR Consumer Staples - We shorted XLP on the bounce on 6/17.   

SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds - If you pull up a three year chart of 2-Year Treasuries you'll see the massive macro Trend of interest rates starting to move in the opposite direction. We call this chart the "Queen Mary" and its new-found positive slope means that America's cost of capital will start to go up, implying that access to capital will tighten. Yields are going to continue to make higher-highs and higher lows until consensus gets realistic.

UUP - U.S. Dollar Index - We believe that the US Dollar is the leading indicator for the US stock market. In the immediate term, what is bad for the US Dollar should be good for the stock market. Longer term, the burgeoning U.S. government debt balance will be negative for the greenback.

EWW - iShares Mexico - We're short Mexico due in part to the repercussions of the media's manic Swine flu fear.  The country's dependence on export revenues is decidedly bearish due to volatility of crude prices and when considering that the country's main oil producer, PEMEX, has substantial debt to pay down and its production capacity has declined since 2004. Additionally, the potential geo-political risks associated with the burgeoning power of regional drug lords signals that the country's economy is under serious duress.


Low hold on slots and tables in May 2008 should allow the total revenue decline in May 2009 to look better than the 11.5% decline in McCarran airport traffic.  Assuming normal holds on tables and slots, we project that Strip gaming revenue will decline only about 5%.  In terms of YoY revenue change, May could be the best month since September 2008.  As a refresher, gaming revenues declined 16% in April 2009 which was the 7th consecutive double digit monthly decline.

Before we get too excited though, our sources indicate that June looks a little weak and the hold comparison is a little challenging.  Las Vegas is not yet out of the woods.


WEN – Was my initial assessment right?

June 19 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in high-yield, high-risk bonds may have spawned its first dividend deal in two years. Wendy's/Arby's Group Inc., which issued $565 million of 10 percent notes due in 2016 yesterday, will use the proceeds to repay debt and make a "distribution," potentially for dividends and stock repurchases, the Atlanta-based company said yesterday in a statement. Billionaire Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management LP is the largest shareholder of Wendy's/Arby's.

Increasing leverage to buy back stock does not create long-term shareholder value.





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