While MCD trends remain strong, signs of stress are creeping into the system. Importantly, the stress is not coming from difficult comparisons, but from stress being put on the franchise system that will impact sales trends in the coming months.
- The biggest issues facing the MCD system stem from the Dollar menu and the aggressive move into beverages. I have written extensively about the Dollar menu and the problems with increasing traffic at the cost of margins. The move to broaden MCD's beverage platform is a completely separate subject, however, and the resulting issues will take time to manifest. In short, any beverage the company sells in a bottle or can in place of a fountain drink will carry a lower margin. Enough said!
- Recently, McDonald's has seen its fair share of insider selling and apparently, institutional selling, too. We came across the two charts to the right on InsiderTrading.com. Over the past three quarters, there has been a clear trend among the investment community to sell McDonald's. In 4Q07, the last time the stock was in the high 50's, the net selling was the highest in four quarters.
- In contrast to MCD, the trends at SBUX are completely reversed. In 1Q08, SBUX saw net buying from institutions for the first time in a year! The current owners of SBUX know the issues and understand that the brand and the company are on solid footing. All we need now is that first positive data point and the herd will follow.