prev

Janet's Wilted Dollars

Takeaway: This is your centrally planned market life now. Deal with it.

So, after testing Hedgeye TREND resistance of $81.39, the US Dollar Index (sadly) faded like a wilted flower yesterday.

 

Janet's Wilted Dollars - yell3

 

Reality check: This is your centrally planned market life now. Deal with it.

 

On a related note, I don’t think there’s a hope in hell that Janet Yellen signals a December taper. Heck, the Yen might even be a long here going into her hearing. That’s how scary dovish she is.

 

Janet's Wilted Dollars - lightning


Scary Dovish

Client Talking Points

US DOLLAR

So after testing our Hedgeye TREND resistance of $81.39, the US Dollar Index (sadly) faded like a wilted flower yesterday. The reality is that this is your centrally planned market life now. Deal with it. On a related note, the Yen might even be a long here going into the Yellen hearing. That’s how scary dovish she is.

UST 10YR YIELD

The 10-Year yield fades at a lower-high and now Hedgeye TREND support of 2.66% comes in play into the Fed front-running circus event in Washington. I don’t think there’s a hope in hell that Janet Yellen signals a December taper. No way, no how. That’s why I am long the long bond (and Gold) here.

GOLD

Gold does not have the pop Silver (+1.4%) has this morning, but at least its not going down. We’re now long of Gold in Yellen terms (closer to $1262), but Mr Market doesn’t care what we own and where. Today is game day. Gold resistance is $1311, then $1342 after that

Asset Allocation

CASH 48% US EQUITIES 8%
INTL EQUITIES 8% COMMODITIES 8%
FIXED INCOME 8% INTL CURRENCIES 20%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
FXB

Our bullish call on the British Pound was borne out of our Q4 Macro themes call. We believe the health of a nation’s economy is reflected in its currency. We remain bullish on the regime change at the BOE, replacing Governor Mervyn King with Mark Carney. In its October meeting, the Bank of England voted unanimously (9-0) to keep rates on hold and the asset purchase program unchanged.  If we look at the GBP/USD cross, we believe the UK’s hawkish monetary and fiscal policy should appreciate the GBP, as Bernanke/Yellen continue to burn the USD via delaying the call to taper.

WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.

TROW

Financials sector senior analyst Jonathan Casteleyn continues to carry T. Rowe Price as his highest-conviction long call, based on the long-range reallocation out of bonds with investors continuing to move into stocks.  T Rowe is one of the fastest growing equity asset managers and has consistently had the best performing stock funds over the past ten years.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

This has to be one of the most confusing weeks of global macro signals in recent years... Lot of fundamental/quant mismatch = #RegimeChange? @HedgeyeDDale

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Is the program actually proving effective? My short answer is yes."

-Janet Yellen on the efficacy of QE on 1/8/11

STAT OF THE DAY

Kohl's shares fell sharply this morning after posting earnings and revenue that fell far short of market expectations. Shares stumbled 9% in pre-market trade. Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough nailed this call. Click here to watch video from Tuesday.


Invite: Expert Call on MLP Non-GAAP Accounting

Continuing our work in the MLP space, we will host an Expert Call on Monday, 11/18 at 1pm EST with Roger Burks, Founder and Managing Director of WG Consulting (WGC) and formerly the Lead Partner for Deloitte’s energy practice.

 

Given the importance of non-GAAP financial measures to MLPs (distributable cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, maintenance CapEx, etc.), we are looking to gain a better understanding of how and why MLPs use them.  We also seek to understand how the use and calculation of non-GAAP measures is audited (independent auditors) and regulated (SEC), if at all.

 

A few questions on our mind…

  • What is “maintenance CapEx”?  What is this measure supposed to represent?
  • Is “maintenance CapEx” a non-GAAP financial measure?  Why isn’t “maintenance CapEx” reconciled back to its nearest GAAP financial measure?
  • Why are recurring, non-cash expenses like stock-based compensation and non-cash interest expense added back to non-GAAP financial measures like adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow?  What is the rationale for doing so?
  • To what extent are non-GAAP financial measures audited?
  • To what extent are non-GAAP financial measures regulated by the SEC?
  • With the SEC’s renewed focus on accounting fraud, do you think that MLPs’ use of non-GAAP financial measures will come under increased scrutiny?  Have you any indication of this already happening?
  • And more…

Dial-In Info…

 

Monday, 11/18, 1pm EST

Toll Free Number:

Direct Dial Number:

Conference Code: 536617#

 

About Roger Burks…

 

Roger Burks is Founder and Managing Director of WG Consulting (WGC).  Mr. Burks is a CPA with over 30 years of experience, including over 20 years with Deloitte & Touche and 10 years as a senior executive in the energy industry.  Prior to WGC, Mr. Burks led Deloitte’s energy practice.  He served as Lead Partner for many of Deloitte’s energy clients, and led various transaction projects including external audits, acquisitions, divestitures, public and private stock, debt offerings, and merger integration, many involving early Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs).  In 2012, Mr. Burks founded a financial advisory firm that was effectively merged into WGC.  Today, Mr. Burks and his team at WGC serve as the Interim-CFO for a number of companies and provide all financial, operational, and transactional services to them.  Additionally, Mr. Burks serves on the Board of STR Marketplace, The Houston Chapter of CPAs, and has previously served on the Board of Superior Offshore International as well as various other private company and non-profit boards.

 

Kevin Kaiser

Managing Director


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

SHIP SHARE - CRUISERS

A delicate time for the cruisers – we’d like to share our thoughts

 

 

Fears that overcapacity in the Caribbean is causing soft bookings volume and down pricing persist.  Cruise Week pedaled the weak Q4/Q1 again this week.  While not a new theme, it’s not abating.

 

As pointed out by Cruise Week, agents continue to see RCL as best positioned in the current demand environment.  However, we remain cautious as RCL’s capacity in the Caribbean will be at its highest since 2010 due to the debut of Quantum of the Seas in November 2014.  Moreover, we’re not sure RCL’s guidance reflects the potentially weak environment.

 

For CCL, we believe the low yield guidance for 1H 2014 already takes into account the soft picture from the Caribbean, particularly for FQ1.  As seen from our recent pricing survey, CCL may be experiencing incremental improvement in that market despite the negative scuttlebutt

 

Here is what we are seeing/hearing/feeling:

  • On a longer-term trend, the number of cruise passengers has been steady but selling price is down.
  • River cruising segment is outperforming ocean cruising by a wide margin particularly in the summer.  Onboard spend has been exceptional.
  • Luxury cruises have been immune to the recent weakness
  • Europe 2014 is trending much higher than 2013
  • Onboard yield will continue to go higher
    • Bar drink prices not discounted
    • Oasis of the Seas and Allure of the Seas getting higher yields due to strong onboard spending
  • Mainstream land vacations for Mexico/Florida have been doing well
  • OTAs are not having a significant impact on the cruise business

Recent industry news:

  • (Nov 7) Costa Cruises will spend 10MM euros for 3 dry docks
    • Costa Voyager starting 11/7/13 for about two weeks
    • Costa neoRiviera from 11/7/13 to 11/12/13 
    • Costa Classica from November 12 to December 21.
  • (Nov 7) Starting January 2014, the number of cruise ships that are permitted to enter Venice is cut by 20% while in November 2014, any ship over 96k tons will be banned from the Giudecca Canal (lies south of Venice).
  • (Nov 11) Small fire on Dawn Princess on 11/8 on New Zealand sailing. There were no passenger or crew injuries and the itinerary did not need to be altered. 
  • (Nov 11) Due to propulsion problems on Allure of the Seas, the ship may be drydocked in 2014 rather than 2015. The Oasis of the Seas drydock is scheduled for 2014 but may be pushed back to 2015.
  • (Nov 13) Starting in 2014, the VAT in Mexico's border states will rise to 16% from 11% previously.  This means the cost of goods and services will rise 5% in leading cruise ports like Cozumel, Costa Maya, Ensenada and Cabo San Lucas, among others.  Transportation - not subject to VAT anywhere in the country before - will be taxed at 16%.  CCL recently learned about the increase and is currently examining the matter. 
  • (Nov 13) Princess Cruises said it will pay 2% bonus commissions on short cruises departing January through April next year.  The 3-5 day cruises leave from Los Angeles and Fort Lauderdale. The bonus applies on bookings made Nov. 15 through April 22.

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling

Takeaway: Equity funds posted their 3rd consecutive robust week with bond funds outflowing again - we also highlight our favorite idea TROW

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

 

Total equity mutual fund flow for the week ending November 6th was a robust $9.0 billion, the fourth best week in all of 2013. Domestic equity mutual fund flow was $5.4 billion, an acceleration from the week prior with world equity funds collecting $3.6 billion in new investor capital. Total equity mutual fund trends in 2013 now tally a $3.0 billion weekly average inflow, a complete reversal from 2012's $3.0 billion weekly outflow 

 

Fixed income mutual funds continued persistent outflows during the most recent 5 day period with another $4.3 billion withdrawn from bond funds. This week's draw down worsened sequentially from the $4.1 billion outflow the week prior which has now forced the 2013 weekly average for all fixed income funds to an $885 million outflow which compares to the strong weekly inflow of $5.8 billion throughout 2012

 

ETFs experienced declining weekly subscriptions in the most recent 5 day period, with both equity and fixed income ETFs seeing declining flows week-to-week. Passive equity products lost $4.9 billion for the 5 day period ending November 6th, a sequential weekly reversal from an inflow the week prior, with bond ETFs experiencing a $74 million inflow, also a sharp deceleration from the week before. ETF products also reflect the 2013 asset allocation shift, with the weekly averages for equity products up year-over-year versus bond ETFs which are seeing weaker year-over-year results

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 1

 

 

For the week ending November 6th, the Investment Company Institute reported the 4th best week in 2013 for equity inflows with over $9.0 billion flowing into total equity mutual funds. The breakout between domestic and world stock funds separated to a $5.4 billion inflow into domestic stock funds and a $3.6 billion inflow into international or world stock funds. Both results for the most recent 5 day period within stock funds were above the 2013 weekly averages, with the domestic stock fund 2013 weekly mean at just a $552 million inflow and world stock funds having averaged a $2.5 billion weekly inflow during 2013. The aggregate inflow for all stock funds this year now sits at a $3.0 billion inflow, an average which has been getting progressively bigger each week and a complete reversal from the $3.0 billion outflow averaged per week in 2012.

 

On the fixed income side, bond funds continued their weak trends for the 5 day period ended November 6th with outflows staying persistent within the asset class. The aggregate of taxable and tax-free bond funds booked a $4.3 billion outflow, a sequential deterioration from the $4.1 billion lost in the 5 day period prior. Both categories of fixed income contributed to outflows with taxable bonds having redemptions of $3.5 billion, which joined the $833 million outflow in tax-free or municipal bonds. Taxable bonds have now had outflows in 18 of the past 23 weeks and municipal bonds having had 23 consecutive weeks of outflow. While the sharp outflows that marked most of the summer and the start of the third quarter have moderated, the appetite for bonds has hardly rebounded. The 2013 weekly average for fixed income fund flows is now a $885 million weekly outflow, a sharp reversal from the $5.8 billion weekly inflow averaged last year.

 

Hybrid mutual funds, products which combine both equity and fixed income allocations, continue to be the most stable category within the ICI survey with another $1.3 billion inflow in the most recent 5 day period. Hybrid funds have had inflow in 19 of the past 21 weeks with the 2013 weekly average inflow now at $1.6 billion, a strong advance versus the 2012 weekly average inflow of $911 million.

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI revised chart 2 final

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 2 revised

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 4

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 5

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 6

 

 

Passive Products:

 

 

Exchange traded funds produced weak trends within the same 5 day period with equity ETFs posting a $4.9 billion outflow, a sequential decline from the strong $8.7 billion subscription the week prior. The 2013 weekly average for stock ETFs is now a $3.2 billion weekly inflow, nearly a 50% improvement from last year's $2.2 billion weekly average inflow.

 

Bond ETFs managed an slight inflow for the 5 day period ending November 6th with a $74 million subscription, also a sequential decline from the week prior which netted a $551 million inflow for passive bond products. Taking in consideration this most recent data, 2013 averages for bond ETFs are flagging with just a $303 million average weekly inflow for bond ETFs, much lower than the $1.0 billion average weekly inflow for 2012.

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 7 revised

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 8 revised

 

 

Hedgeye Asset Management Thought of the Week - TROW is Historically Cheap:

 

Our favorite asset management stock continues to be T Rowe Price which has one of the highest exposures to equity products (mutual funds and separately managed accounts) in the investment management industry. TROW drives 83% of its revenues from equity products and directly benefits from the emerging reversal in equity fund flows from redemptions last year in 2012, to subscriptions and inflows this year in 2013. T Rowe shares have always traded at an industry premium on a forward P/E basis because of its high cash balance ($1.6 billion in cash on its balance sheet), strong free cash flow generation ($1.2 billion of free cash flow generation for 2014), and no debt, however shares currently are the cheapest they have been relative to the rest of the asset management group in 3 years. Currently TROW shares fetch just a 12% premium to a group average forward P/E (a 3 year low) versus a 23% average premium since 2010. We estimate that the current institutional outflow that TROW is experiencing from a handful of sovereign Asian wealth funds has compressed the stock's valuation but being that this issue is not a systemic situation, we would expect TROW shares to unwind this discount and appreciate versus the rest of the industry.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Equities Strong...Bonds Weak...TROW Valuation is Compelling - ICI 9

 

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

 



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.32%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.48%
next