Even after the big move we still think that FNP is a BIG idea, with 3x upside over a 3-4-year time period. That said, we’re neither here nor there on tomorrow’s print. Here’s our thinking into tomorrow…
- FNP remains one of our favorite TAIL ideas, as we think that 1-2 years out the stock starts with a 4 (versus $27.66 today).
- But we don’t feel strongly about it one way or another headed into tomorrow’s print.
- This company gives guidance based on what it thinks it can hit, not on what it can beat. Our point is that if we want to get sucked-in to the game of ‘beat by a penny/miss by a penny’, this can literally go either way.
- There’s not likely to be an announcement on the sale of Lucky or Adelington with the release, though we’ll likely get added color on terms surrounding the previously announced sale of Juicy. All in, don’t expect any thesis-shifting strategic announcements.
- Our bigger picture call is simple. Kate Spade (which accounts for all of FNP’s EBIT) is going from $700mm in revenue at a 12% EBIT margin (with leverage), to $3-4bn in revenue at a debt-free 20% margin. We think people have the revenue trajectory partially correct, but they’re still way too low on the margin. In the end, consolidated EBIT will go from break-even (currently hurt by divisions that are on the block) to $800mm. The stock is expensive on earnings today, but is trading at 3.4x its $900mm EBITDA number.
- The punchline on this name is that an 8x EBITDA multiple on our $900mm EBITDA number gets us to a stock of about $75 vs the current $27.66. It won’t happen overnight, as we all know stock moves aren’t linear, but will grind higher quarter after quarter, year after year.
- This has been and will continue to be the perennial ‘I missed it’ stock for investors, who subsequently watch it go up another 25% in their face.