In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance
OVERALL
- IN-LINE: The quarter's performance was in line with management expectations. Strength in higher rated transient and group business continued to offset weakness in government and discount business. 4Q numbers were lowered due to the government shutdown
2014 GROUP BOOKINGS
- BETTER: Bookings for 2014 in 3Q were up 16% and 2/3 of 2014 Group business was on the books and that by year end that number will grow to 70-75%. Currently, group revenues in 2014 are up 6% vs the same time last year.
- PREVIOUSLY: Looking out further into 2014, both group room nights and rate continue to trend ahead of last year. Over 50% of the [Group] rooms that we would expect to do in 2014 are on the books. We're continuing to trend ahead of where we were at this time last year for 2014.
4Q13 GROUP BOOKINGS
- SAME: 4Q bookings increased 9% where rate and demand are running ahead of last year.
- PREVIOUSLY: Fourth quarter group bookings continue to be quite strong both in demand and in rate
CLOSE IN GROUP BOOKINGS
- BETTER: Bookings in the quarter for the quarter grew 12% YoY
- PREVIOUSLY: Short-term group will continue to be slightly weaker than last year.
3Q GROUP BOOKINGS
- SAME: ADR was up due to mix but demand was down by 2% due to weak government business.
- PREVIOUSLY: Room nights are probably about flat, but we've got a pretty solid rate increase for the second half of the year. We are also pleased with the strength of our higher-priced group segments, as the weakness in demand has been largely focused in the lower-rated discount segment.
TRANSIENT
- SAME: Transient demand in 3Q increased 4%. Transient revenues gained 8%. Higher rated retail segment demand increased 10%, while lower-rated segment demand decreased 1%. Outlook for 2014 is quite positive.
- PREVIOUSLY: Advanced transient bookings continue to look quite solid. Transient pricing should also begin to accelerate further.
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
- SAME: HST issued 6MM shares of common stock, at an average price of $18.39 per share, for net proceeds of approximately $109MM. The third quarter issuances completed the sales under their financing agreements, which had a combined total capacity of $400 million. No new agreement has been announced.
- PREVIOUSLY: If you look at it for the rest of the year, we're forecasting that we'll issue another 5 million shares for the rest of the year.
M&A
- CHANGE: HST completed the purchase of one asset in the Q but doesn't expect to complete any more acquisition in 2013. HST sold a small JV asset in October and expects to close on a few other asset sales before year end. Sounds like they will more of a net seller than buyer
- PREVIOUSLY: We are hopeful of completing at least a couple more sales over the course of this year. We will be intending to put about a handful of properties on the market in the fall with the goal of selling all of them. Still hope to be a net buyer.
HOUSTON
- BETTER: Best performing market in 3Q. +18.8% REVPAR (+0.60% OCCU, 17.8% ADR). Shifted mix to higher-rated segment. Q4 will be good but not as good as 3Q due to cancellations in group business related to the government budget crisis and fewer 4Q citywide events.
- PREVIOUSLY: We expect Houston to continue its robust first half growth trends, as solid group and transient demand will continue to facilitate a shift in the mix of business to higher-rated segments.
SEATTLE
- SAME: +12.4% REVPAR (+2.1% OCCU, +9.6% ADR); mix shift to higher-rated retail segment. HST expects Seattle hotels to have a good 4Q, with solid group room nights on the books to create compression to drive rate.
- PREVIOUSLY: We expect our Seattle hotels to have a good third quarter due to a solid group base on the books and strong transient demand, creating compression that will drive group and transient ADR.
ATLANTA
- SAME: +15.5% REVPAR (+6.1% OCCU, +5.8% ADR). Strong city-wide events drove performance. Do not expect Atlanta to outperform in 4Q due to the absence of a major city-wide event.
- PREVIOUSLY: We expect our hotels to continue to outperform in the third quarter due to a strong city-wide calendar.
SAN FRANCISCO
- SAME: +15.8% REVPAR (+1.9% OCCU, +13.3% ADR) - mix shift to higher-rated transient/group business. Expect 4Q to perform well.
- PREVIOUSLY: With continued high transient demand, we expect our San Francisco hotels will see strong results in the third quarter.
LOS ANGELES
- SAME: +13% REVPAR (+1.6% OCCU, +10.9% ADR) - strong transient demand; expect strong transient demand to offset weaker group booking pace and the scheduled rooms’ renovation at the Marina Rey Marriott.
- PREVIOUSLY: We believe that Los Angeles should also experience third quarter – solid third quarter as transient demand strength persists.
NEW YORK
- SAME: +3.5% REVPAR (FLAT OCCU, +3.2% ADR). HST is still concerned with supply growth in market and its impact on ADR. But expects its portfolio to outperform the greater New York market. NY supply will grow +7% in 2014.
- PREVIOUSLY:
- 3Q should continue to hold up relatively well when compared to the New York market.
- Supply growth in New York will be fairly considerable next year. I think we're looking at numbers that approach 7%, which is a pretty big number, especially given the amount of supply that has hit over the course of the last three years there.
- We'll find that New York is still going to be not as strong as we'd like it to be because of the supply coming into the market.
DC
- SAME: -0.1% REVPAR (+1.1% OCCU, -1.5% ADR)- upper upscale hotels outperformed the market index. Expects DC to underperform the market in Q4 and for 2014.
- PREVIOUSLY:
- Given the continued weakness in government travel, we expect our hotels in DC to underperform the portfolio in the third quarter.
- As it relates to D.C., we're still not seeing group bookings or convention bookings picking up for 2014. I think the general sense was that 2014 would be relatively flat to 2013.
EUROPEAN JV
- SAME: +2.8% REVPAR (+4.1% OCCU, -2.3% ADR in constant euros). ADR declined in part to tough London comps. Strong group and citywide events. HST is cautiously optimistic on European hotels.
- PREVIOUSLY: We remain cautiously optimistic about the third quarter for our European hotels. We expect to see some occupancy increasing, while ADR will likely decrease due to the inflated rates during the London Olympics last year.
F&B
- SAME: Comparable hotel food and beverage revenue grew 3.1%, driven by increases in banquet sales. Expects continued growth in 2014 outlook driven by banquet activity.
- PREVIOUSLY: We are not forecasting F&B and other revenues to increase at the same pace as the second quarter....We're estimating in our guidance that food and beverage could range from 2.5% to 3.5%. The midpoint of that is obviously 3%, so that would suggest that we'd be about equal with what we achieved in the first half of the year.
