In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance


MAR 3Q REPORT CARD - mar123 



  • MIXED: Q3 was solid and general commentary favorable.  Q4 guidance was a little weak but understandable given MAR's exposure to the DC area.  Stock buyback was a little light



  • SAME:  Transient and leisure trends continued to be the engines of growth in 3Q. Transient REVPAR increased 7% as business benefited from improving the mix of high rated retail business.  Weekend REVPAR rose 9% at Marriott, 10% Courtyard and 12% at Ritz-Carlton.  
    • Leisure business was hot. Weekend REVPAR rose nearly 8% at the Marriott brand, 9% at Courtyard, and 9% at Ritz-Carlton. Overall, REVPAR increased over 7.4% in North America as the business continued to improve their mix of luxury business eliminating discounts and selling more rooms at high retail room rates.
    • Transient demand is a very powerful bright spot. If we get towards the end of the fall and when we're doing our planning and continue to see transient perk along at that kind of pace, I think we will be captured by the strength of that business and will not look to group up in a way that would push some of that business away.


  • BETTER:  Group REVPAR rose 3%.  2014 pace for NA group bookings have increased from 2% in 2Q to 4% in 3Q.  Group revenue booked in 3Q for CY2014 was up 14% YoY.  60% of 2014 group business on the books. 
    • We look at Q4 being actually fairly strong with group revenue on the books up about 6% from the same time last year from last year's fourth quarter. But Q3 is essentially being flattish.
    • Bookings for 2014 and all future years, which were up above 18% in the quarter
    • I think for the Marriott Hotels & Resorts brand in the United States, we're in the 50% [range booked]...we should be something like 65% to 70% by year-end.


  • WORSE:  China's performance dragged down the Asia Pac's region RevPAR performance by 3% in the Q. Austerity still having effect on business.  Additional government meetings and restrictions on banquets take effect in January 2014 but comps will be easier.
    • Chinese economy looks to us to be performing, maybe it's growing a little bit weaker than it did a year or two ago but still, broadly recovering with really powerful trends in domestic travel particularly in China. And so, we see, even within this quarter, we saw Shanghai, for example, I think up about 6% in REVPAR – 5%, excuse me; while Beijing, by comparison, which is more dependent on government and had a little bit of that pollution hangover, was down something like 5%. Folks have asked about supply growth in China and clearly there has been some supply growth, it varies a little bit market by market. I suspect we'll continue to see supply growth be fairly high, but we expect we'll continue to see the Chinese economy produce more and more domestic travelers as well as global inbound travel growth and still think it's an extremely exciting market to bet on long-term.


  • SAME: The Middle East and Africa segment reported a 13% RevPAR decline in 3Q.  MAR expects mid-single digit RevPAR in 2014 from the region
  • PREVIOUSLY:  In the Middle East and Africa, across all brands, constant dollar REVPAR increased 11%, a result that is likely to reverse in the second half of the year, given the recent events in Egypt. Long-term, the region offers terrific opportunities and our pipeline today includes nearly 45 hotels.


  • LITTLE WORSE:  Government shutdown played a part in the lowering of North America and Worldwide REVPAR (chart above) for 4Q 2013 and caused the company to take down the upper end of guidance by 50bps.  For 2014, MAR expects 4-6% REVPAR growth vs HOT's 5-7% projection.
    • Our REVPAR outlook for 2013 assumes a steady-as-she-goes view of North American and European demand, and a more conservative view of demand trends in Asia and the Middle East.
    • What we see is sort of expectation of REVPAR growth in the plus 5%-ish, a little over 5%, hopefully, like we've done the last couple of quarters, for the next couple of quarters. We know that we've got better group bookings on the books for the fourth quarter than the third, so there's maybe a little bit more upside in the fourth quarter. So to drive the full-year numbers to something in the 6% to 7% range to us seemed very difficult. Group business I think on the books now for fourth quarter is plus 6%



  • SAME:  $2 million of pre-opening costs largely related to two EDITION hotels in 3Q.   
  • PREVIOUSLY:  Pre-opening costs for our EDITION hotel are expected to total $5 million for the year, of which we've already booked about $2 million in the first half.


  • BETTER:  MAR expects to return $1BN to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  We expect to return $800 million to $1 billion to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends.


  • SAME: They have identified 30 sites and approved a dozen projects. The first hote is expected to open in Milan in the Spring of 2014.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  I think have got a dozen or so specific MOXYs that either have already been approved or are pending committee approval. And I think we'll open our first roughly the end of the first quarter of 2014.


  • WORSE:  -70bps in REVPAR from government impact in 3Q.  -1% REVPAR impact due to government shutdown for 4Q. 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  Government weakness is the overwhelming cause for weakness in the greater D.C. market. You see a little bit of a difference between urban D.C. and suburban D.C. because I think when you get to urban D.C., more of that business is independent from the government, so it would be your prototypical lawyers and lobbyists and tourists coming to see D.C. and folks doing business with D.C. companies of which there are a number. But aspects of D.C. which are less reliant on government, which is why there's relatively more strength there than there would be in the suburbs.


  • SAME:  Strong performance in Eastern Europe offset declines in London, enabling us to raise REVPAR 2%. Excluding London and Olympics impact, European REVPAR increased 4%.  Unrest in Egypt reduced  REVPAR in the Middle East by 3%.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  The third quarter will be tough because of the Olympics. The fourth quarter comparisons will be much easier and we would expect, as a consequence, Europe hopefully will strengthen as we go through the balance of the year. On the negative side, we've got Egypt, which is falling apart, and I probably shouldn't say that way, but from a hotel perspective, it's not looking very good. Our hotels are running at much lower occupancies today than they were even in the second quarter. And I think those comparisons will be tough because of that market.


Ugly quarter/guidance and misleading press release comments about October didn't help. But guidance looks too ugly.



"Our third-quarter performance fell below our expectations, as solid results in July and August were offset by significant weakness in September in many of our markets.  However, October year-over-year results have shown improvement in most of our operations. Despite a challenging operating environment, we continued to make encouraging progress in many areas of our business.  Our Las Vegas Locals business grew EBITDA for the third consecutive quarter.  In New Jersey, Borgata generated strong results, and we are now finalizing preparations for real-money online gaming in that state.  And we further strengthened our balance sheet, bringing our Company's total debt reduction to more than $500 million so far this year."


-  Keith Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer of Boyd Gaming.




  • Weakness in September was concentrated in their Midwest & South region
  • Improved their FCF by more than $70MM annually this year
  • Eliminated $20MM of operating expenses from non-core assets
  • LV Locals:  Seeing benefits of the refinements they have made to their marketing programs.  Applying the same initiatives across their Midwest & South regions.
  • Online gaming:  their goal is to create a first class experience in line with the Borgata name. Efforts are focused on free play offerings right.  They are testing tools - geolocation and know your customers tools. Objective to make it as safe and easy for customers to open up accounts.  Will launch as soon as possible. 
  • In NJ, their customers will now be able to gamble from their rooms
  • Planning further initiatives in LV locals operations
  • They are also going to be rolling out social gaming sites throughout the US
  • Company outlook remains "encouraging" despite 3Q challenges
  • They will continue to reduce debt
  • Will focus on growth opportunities - CA online gaming and S. Florida, and online gaming in NJ
  • In October, most of their operations are showing an improvement MoM
  • Locals LV:  Reduced overall marketing spend by over $1MM. Penny Lane initiative. Will roll out Penny Lane throughout Midwest & South - giving players more bonuses more often. Will launch a new advertising and marketing campaign in the coming months and weeks. 
  • Downtown: Hawaii market is improving and redevelopment remains a positive long term development for the market area.  Over time, this will lead to more visitation to the downtown market.
  • Midwest & South:  casual players pulled back sharply in their spend in September.  In the Midwest, Paradise & Blue Chip were materially negatively impacted by new competition. South: These markets are also impacted by government and military spending.  Some bright spots: Delta Downs. Iowa: Diamond Jo grew visitation and gained 2% share. Kansas Star grew but so did expenses as they opened the permanant facility and to accomodate revenue growth
  • Borgata:  Had a huge summer session. Higher property taxes reduced EBITDA by $2.1MM. But last week Borgata got a favorable ruling that Borgata had overpaid by $48MM in 2009-2010 plus $10MM in interest on that amount. They are also appealing 2011-2012 taxes as well.  This will benefit them through refunds and lower taxes going forward but timing is uncertain as NJ will appeal the ruling.
  • Borgata is posting solid gains in 4Q. Believe there is further upside to the property.
  • Debt Balance:  $3.6BN ($1.2BN at Peninsula). 
  • Cash:  $102MM at BYD and $28MM at Peninsula
  • Secured Leverage:  2.2x  (5x max) / Total 6.6x (8.0x max)
  • D&A:  Peninsula's $22MM/ Borgata $14MM
  • Capex:  $8MM at Peninsula/ $6MM at Borgata
  • 4Q13 guidance:
    • Interest expenses: $79MM; $20MM in Borgata and $20MM at peninsula
    • Share oustanding: 109MM
    • Wholly owned EBITDA: 105-110MM
    • Borgata: $22-24MM (ex tax benefit or online gaming revenues)
    • Non-tax expense of $3MM 
    • Adjusted EPS: 15-20 cent loss


  • Delta Down impact of Golden Nugget coming online in 2014?  They are about 30-40 minutes closer to Texas than Lake Charles - where the Golden Nugget will be.  Delta Downs is a slot only operation so they can treat their slot customers better.
  • Expect very modest revenue growth in the LV locals market in 2014
  • Borgata's online strategy: will be aggressive in attacking the market - have a significant budget allocated to market / attract players
  • Borgata property tax impact of $2.1MM was a YoY # and known when they put out their guidance
  • Government shutdown impact were complete unknowns in September.  Most of the impact that they have seen is in the lower end segment which is most economically sensitive.
  • Guidance of what they are providing is based on what they saw in 3Q and October.
  • Given the fast and dramatic change they saw in September they didn't really have an opportunity to adjust costs in reaction to it- hence the impact on margins. They are still looking for opportunities to take cost out of the business. 
  • In September, they saw a similar number of trips from the lower end of their database but they spent less. That group will recover but they need to feel better about the world.  MoM, they have seen a recovery (not necessarily YoY) across most of their properties. 
  • All they are saying about October is that it's not down as much as September
  • Their business didn't get negatively impacted from new competition in Downtown - their share increased. Dilution from new properties is usually offset by more visitation to the area. 
  • Impact from Sandy last year at Borgata: $11-12MM of EBITDA
  • Property tax discussion at Borgata:  Does affect going forward payments/ rate.  So they will get a refund of past payments and will have lower payments going forward. If you took the government's reassessment from the ruling they would see a $30MM reduction in annual taxes at the property which would boost EBITDA by that amount.
  • Online gaming: Expect that they will launch multiple brands at the same time - Borgata and Bwin as well as others. You can launch up to 5 sites under each license.
  • Penny Lane rollout to the Midwest & South: Launched around Dec 2012 for penny denominated machines and feel like the campaign contributed to the lift that they saw in the first few Q's. They are layering BYI's electronic bonusing suite which will help them create an innovative marketing campaign starting next week and get to the new Peninsula properties early next year.
  • 2014 - Do they expect a pick up from easier comps? Who knows ... 
  • They can't really say what growth in LV Locals would have been without Penny Lane. That wasn't the only change that was implemented to attract more people into their building.
  • NJ online gaming:  You will be able to sign up to gamble if you are within the bounds of the state - you do not need to be a NJ resident
  • View that online gaming opportunities will more than offset any impact to their bricks and mortor operations. They are not modeling any impact in their guidance.
  • What is the promotional environment like in reaction to the softness in the market?  It's really market specific. Overall, the lower end of the database is spending less. They are redeeming past offers based on higher play in the past. 



  • LV Locals: Ongoing refinements to our business continued to drive revenue growth at our four Locals properties during the quarter.  We also benefited from efficiencies throughout our operations
  • Downtown: Weakness at the Fremont during September was primarily responsible for the EBITDA shortfall.  Business at the property was impacted by construction disruption in the Downtown area, which resulted in reduced visitation.
  • Midwest & South; Peninsula: Peninsula segment contributed net revenues of $130.7 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $45.3 million. Solid performances at Diamond Jo Dubuque and Delta Downs were offset by declines at other properties in the region, particularly in September.  Our operations were impacted by soft economic conditions late in the quarter, as well as increased supply in certain markets.
  • Borgata: Borgata's market share rose 3% and EBITDA margins improved by 550bps, due largely to more normalized table hold as compared to the year-ago quarter.  Despite increased regional supply, Borgata's first-in-class amenities, service and effective marketing programs are providing a significant competitive advantage.  On October 9, Borgata received the first Internet Gaming Permit granted by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement.  Preparations are ongoing for the launch of our Borgata-branded online gaming site, and we remain on track to be among the first operators to offer real-money online gaming in New Jersey

HBI: Headed Even Higher

Takeaway: HBI is working for the wrong reasons, but it’s impossible to fight the tape on this one. The stock is headed higher. Get used to it.

First let’s look at the reality of this company. We think that the base business is in the bottom quartile of businesses we’d like to invest in. Consider trends in the third quarter. Innerwear sales are down for the second time this year. Ditto for Activewear. And yes, those two businesses combined account for 83% of sales and 95% of cash flow. Direct to Consumer was finally up for the first time in five quarters, but barely so – sales were up 0.9%. This is an area we feel strongly about.  No company – and I don’t care who it is – should be putting up sales growth in DTC anything less than 10%. The good companies are looking at 20%. The great companies are better than 30%.  Does the underwear business naturally lend itself to a wholesale business? Yes, perhaps. But growth in the DTC channel is synonymous to the health of the brand in question.


Lastly, the trajectory of the balance sheet relative to the P&L is not looking good at all.  Check out HBI’s SIGMA chart below. The clockwise motion is a classic pattern of a company that follows the patterns of either the economic cycle or an industry-specific cycle.   But the interpretation is plain as day: Margins were in trouble for four quarters, but the company fixed its inventory levels along the way (which made the line gravitate upward throughout 2012). But then inventory/sales got consistently less good, but people were ok with that because margins were improving. That’s what happened over the past nine months. But the latest data point here denotes considerable erosion in both inventory/sales AND margins. For the record, you don’t want to see those two things coincide if you’re long the stock.


HBI: Headed Even Higher - HBI sigma


Then why, HedgeyeRetail, do you think that the stock will continue to head higher?


That belief lies entirely with Maidenform, and the sheer fact that management continues to sandbag the accretion math.  Consider the following. The reality on Maidenform is that a) HBI got it for a steal, b) management lowballed on accretion as they simply add it to HBI’s model, c) there’s easy margin upside as HBI unravels failed MFB programs put in place over the past two years, and d) there’s further upside as HBI fills out its excess capacity with MFB business (i.e. transitions MFB to an insourced model from an outsourced model).  They guided to $0.15-$0.20 per share from MFB in 2014. Seriously? If we simply add on MFB’s net income from last year – which was abysmal, by the way (worst in 8-years) and then tack on borrowing costs, we get to $0.25-$0.30 in accretion. When all is said and done, we think the accretion numbers will be at least 2x guidance in year 1, and could be closer to a buck versus management’s $0.60 guidance three years out.


That’s why we get to the RNOA trajectory in the chart below. It is one of the best in retail, and it’s all due to MFB.  Margins getting better while asset turns are improving.


HBI: Headed Even Higher - hbi rnoa


The bottom line is that it does not matter one iota that sales are punk. We might start to see some positive benefit from HBI’s organic marketing initiatives in 2H – but that gives them maybe a point or two in growth.  The big upside begins in another two quarters when HBI gets 15% sales growth alone just from adding MFB. Along the way, cash flow looks good, and the company looks on track to pay down the debt associated with the deal just over a year after it closes. Organically, we’re not fans of this story by any stretch (challenged top line and cotton-led gross margin benefit coming to a close). But the reality is that the market won’t look at the ‘organic growth and margin characteristics’, it will look at reported numbers, and lowballed expectations.  As a merged entity, this one will be tough to bet against.

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Quarter was disappointing given the stock run. Typically bullish conference call wasn't bullish enough.



"I am pleased to report another solid quarter with double digit EBITDA growth and increased margins, led by strength at MGM China and our Las Vegas Strip properties... These results are reflective of the continued market share gains from programs such as M life and our focus on international marketing strategies combined with our best in class collection of resorts and amenities."


- Jim Murren, MGM Resorts International Chairman and CEO




  • Reported a very strong 3Q 
  • Improved operations at CityCenter
  • Grand/Bellagio room remodels have been successful and driving business
  • NY/NY and Monte Carlo remodeled sections will be open in Spring 2014
  • Mobile will enhance M-Life database
  • MGM Cotai construction is progressing really well; piling/sitework will be done by end of year; basement/tower construction next 
  • Maryland:  decision will be at the end of the year
  • Massachusetts:  final decision will be made in April 2014
  • Margins improving, property investment yielding good returns
  • LV Luxury business was up 18% EBITDA - high-end international customers were strong
  • LV:  baccarat grew 20% in 3Q; 16% in table games revenues at wholly-owned LV properties; non-bacc volume was flat
  • Better pricing due to increased convention room nights
  • 4Q REVPAR flat:  consistent with mgmt expectations; 14-15% mix consistent with last year's mix; tough comp at Mandalay.  Core properties do not have the pricing power as luxury properties.
  • Accelerating REVPAR track in 1Q 2014 (peak convention room mix: 21%)
    • 1Q 2014 convention nights approaching all-time highs
    • Optimistic for 2014; typically booked 80% of next year's bookings (currently at 88%, up mid-single digits in terms of rate)
  • Aria:  EBITDA negatively impacted by $17MM due to low hold; table drop increased by 12% YoY
  • Vdara EBITDA up 9%; hotel occu 89%, ADR: $197, REVPAR: $177; F&B increased by new Sean McClain restaurant and new buffet; entertainment increased by full quarter of Zarkana show
  • Crystals: +26% YoY, opened 3 new tenants in 3Q; opened another tenant in October.  
  • Sold 28 Mandarin Oriental units and 2 units at Veer - $27MM in condo revenue
  • CityCenter refi:  Cash interest expense reduced by $80MM
  • $1.1 BN revolver, $1.45 bn at MGM China
  • Cash: $1.4 balance ($925MM at MGM China)
  • $78MM capex at wholly owned properties
  • 300-325MM capex FY 2013 guidance (vs 350 previously due to timing)
    • $52MM at MGM Macau, $260MM at MGM Cotai
  • 4Q: Corporate expense: ~$50MM
  • 4Q: Stock comp: $7-8MM
  • 4Q:  D&A similar to 3Q
  • 4Q: $210 gross interest expense ($5MM at MGM China, $9MM of non-cash amortization)
  • MGM China:  $8MM branding fee; $12MM adverse low hold; $7.5MM additional tourism tax fee
    • Still see better VIP table yields
    • VIP win rate: 2.2% vs 3.0% in prior year
      • VIP Volumes up 10%
    • Slot handle up 10%
    • Upgrading mass floor; remodeling/expansion of Supreme Land (60-70 more premium slots) will be done in 2014
    • Very competitive market
  • MGM Cotai:  early 2016 opening; budget $2.6BN; cap interest (not material) and land concession costs ($75MM)


  • Massachusetts: licensing by November 2013
  • 1Q 2014 REVPAR growth:  led by convention business and strong by each subsequent quarter
    • 2014 convention mix:  approaching 15.5-16%
  • Vegas:  convention will boost leisure rates as well
  • 2014 Vegas room flowthrough:  60% long-time target; up 94% YTD; flowthrough should be stronger in 2014 compared to 2013
  • Mandalay Bay and night clubs are doing well.  Core properties non-gaming spend slowly coming back, but luxury non-gaming doing much better.
  • Japan:  hope something will come forward in Spring 2014 
  • CityCenter - buy out partner?
    • Partner has not asked them to buy them out as the asset has increased in value
  • Had thoughts of selling Crystals as cap rates fell below 5%; had second thoughts about it; will not sell in 2013
  • Q4 slot business in Macau has seen improvements but growth has slowed due to harder comps
  • Bellagio hold was low last year, this year a touch better but still lower than what the property had done
  • Q4 LV hold:  Bellagio and MGM Grand had high hold
  • Cotai:  Govt has not staggered 2016 opening dates
  • LV:  upgrade program under way for all properties; last big convention attendance was 2011, which indicated revenue and EBITDA growth
  • Borgata:   may be relicensed by 1Q 2014; 
  • $110MM sitting in NJ trust account
  • Culinary agreement:  typically 5 years 
  • Vegas:  THE HOTEL conversion to Delano (1,200 room remodel) will start in April 2014 
  • Hainan-interesting opportunity



  • Casino revenue related to wholly owned domestic resorts increased 3% compared to the prior year quarter.
    • Table games revenue increased 10% and the overall table games hold percentage in the third quarter of 2013 was 21.5% compared to 20.4% for the prior year quarter.  
    • Slots revenue increased 1% with a 3% increase at the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts
  • Rooms revenue at wholly owned domestic resorts increased 5%, with a 3% increase in REVPAR at the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts
  • The Company's wholly owned domestic resorts earned Adjusted Property EBITDA of $350 million, an 8% increase compared to the prior year quarter
  • The Company's wholly owned Las Vegas Strip resorts earned Adjusted Property EBITDA of $280 million, a 12% increase compared to the prior year quarter
  • MGM China's Adjusted EBITDA increased 25% to $191 million
  • CityCenter's Adjusted EBITDA related to resort operations was $62 million, a 6% increase compared to the prior year quarter
  • MGM Cotai: Groundbreaking took place in February 2013 and the project continues to remain on pace for an anticipated early 2016 opening.  In May 2013, MGM China signed a deal with China State Construction to serve as sole general contractor for the project. The total project budget, excluding capitalized interest and land, is $2.6 billion.
  • The current year third quarter results were affected by non-cash impairment charges of $26 million, primarily related to land holdings in Jean and Sloan, Nevada. The current year third quarter income tax provision was affected by $28 million of valuation allowance on U.S. deferred tax assets
  • We continue to be opportunistic in accessing the capital markets as indicated by our recent CityCenter refinancing, which will lower its annual cash interest expense by approximately $80 million.
  • The Company's cash balance at September 30, 2013 was $1.4 billion, which included $925 million at MGM China.  At September 30, 2013 the Company had $2.9 billion of borrowings outstanding under its $4.0 billion senior credit facility and $553 millionoutstanding under the $2.0 billion MGM China credit facility. The Company repaid net long-term debt of $77 million during the third quarter, bringing total net repayments during 2013 to $553 million.


Solid quarter, group bookings are improving, and lower Q4 guidance due to gov't shutdown already anticipated.



"We had a solid quarter with worldwide REVPAR up nearly 5% YoY.  Short-term group business picked up in North America and occupancy rates reached nearly 75% worldwide.  Room rates moved higher, in part due to an improving mix of business, contributing about three-quarters of the REVPAR increase in the quarter, and the number of company-operated and franchised rooms in our portfolio rose 4% YoY.  Owner demand for our brands continues to be robust.  Our development pipeline increased for the fifth straight quarter and we're on track to sign a record number of rooms in 2013." 

- Arne M. Sorenson, president and chief executive officer of Marriott International



North America systemwide REVPAR: +4-6%

Worldwide systemwide REVPAR: +4-6%

  • Group revenue booking pace for 2014 North American group business improved in the third quarter and is now up over 4% compared to up 2% a quarter ago.  
  • Group revenue booked in the 2013 third quarter for calendar 2014 was up 14% compared to group revenue booked for calendar 2013 in the year-ago quarter.  Given our strong development pipeline, unit growth should accelerate in 2014 as our global system of rooms is expected to expand by approximately 5% gross, or 3.5-4%net."



  • Some of the beat this Q was due to timing: a penny in fees, 2 cents per termination branding fees on the owned/leased segment, and a penny improvement in G&A. Not all due to timing: penny of outperformance due to strong results as some of our own Middle East hotels, 3 cents due to true-ups of our foreign tax provision and the lower-than-expected tax rate. 
  • NA Transient REvPAR increased 7% with groups up 3%. High rated retail business was very strong and group business was better than expected attendance
  • In NA, leisure demand was "extraordinary". San Fran, Houston, Miami and Atlanta saw double digit RevPAR growth
  • 6% decline across the greater DC market - and this reduced their NA system-wide RevPAR by 70bps
  • In Europe, strong performance in Eastern Europe offset declines in London. Excluding the London market and the impact of last year's Olympics, RevPAR increased 4%. 
  • Unrest in Egypt reduced RevPAR in the Middle East by 3%. 
  • Caribbean/Latin American: favorable leisure demand drove RevPAR 
  • Asia-Pacific region: Strong results in Indonesia, Thailand, and Japan drove RevPAR growth. Excluding China, performance was even stronger, with constant dollar RevPAR up 8%. 
  • Incentive fees were strong in Boston and New York, or flattish in many international markets and retreated a bit in DC.
    • Booked $7MM of deferred base fees last year with the sale of Courtyard hotels - so its a tough comp
    • ~25% of full serviced mgmt hotels paid incentive fees vs 19% a year ago in NA
    • WW 1/3 of mgmt hotels paid incentive fees vs 28% last year
  • Expect roughly 100bps of margin improvement for the full year in owned, leased and other margins. 
  • Owned/leased/other: longer quartered benefited results by $2MM. Better results at leased hotels with higher termination fees but london had softer results and there $2MM of pre-opening expenses
  • Deleted about 2200 rooms. Nearly 40% of openings this Q where conversions. Expect 10k system deletions in 2013 and 30k new openings. 
  • Short term bookings are up in the 4th quarter. The calendar is favorable
  • down of international markets
  • 4Q guidance: 
    • NA RevPAR: 4.5-5.5%; excluding DC think that RevPAR would be 100bps higher
      • Group revenue pace for the Marriott brand is up nearly 7% due to a strong short-term booking. The timing of holidays in the fourth quarter is favorable with Hanukkah and Thanksgiving day following the same low travel week. 
    • International constant $ RevPAR: +1 to 2%
      • Asia Pac: low single digit growth
      • Europe: should improve as UK comps ease
      • Caribbean/Latam: should see continued strong leisure demand/ mid-single-digit range
      • ME: remain a challenge
  • Expect very strong performance in New York, Boston, San Antonio, New Orleans, and continued international growth for incentive fees.  Unit growth and higher RevPAR should increase their incentive fees by 10% in FY13
  • Occupancy levels at their hotels are at record levels allowing them to successfully yield out lower rated business. They plan to further reduce price sensitive accounts in 2014 and continue to drive business higher
  • 2014 RevPAR guidance:
    • Bookings made in 3Q 2013 for 2014 increased 14% YoY and 60% of Group bookings are already on the books for 2014.
    • Europe is growing again.  New supply is under 1%, and therefore expect that RevPAR will increase in the low single digit range in 2014. 8% of MAR's fee revenue
    • Asia: expect mid-single digit RevPAR growht in 2014. 9% of fee revenue comes from this region with 50% coming from China
    • Latin America/ Caribbean: Mid-single digit growth. Region represents 5% of total revenue
    • ME: Mid-single digit RevPAR (little risky). Egypt is challenging and UAE/ Saudi Arabia are strong.
  • Have increased SG&A spend in adding resources to development of new brand launches as well as feasibility and legal in order to drive new unit growth.  Only 2/3 of their G&A are administrative costs which are likely to grow 5% in 2013 and slow in 2014
  • Nearly 50% of the new hotel openings are outside the US.  Opening hotels in Asia every 8 days. More than 70% of their limited service hotel openings are outside the top 25 MSAs. 
  • Premiums over their comp sets have increased this quarter
  • Early results are exceeding their expectations in London Edition which opened last month (occupancy over 75% and ADR north of $425). Miami Edition is scheduled to open in 2014 and NY in early 2015
  • Gaylord: integration has taken longer than they expected and have been negatively impacted by government austerity program. Gaylord hotels are benefiting from optical improvements in synergies under management. We've also seen a significant uptick in YoY trends in demand, including Marriott rewards business. We've added sales resources to pursue the profitable 1000+ for my business and expect the brand integration to be complete this year 
  • AC brand: Have 15 projects signed in NA under this banner and are looking at another dozen sites
  • Moxie Brand: Identified 30 sites and approved 12 projects
  • Acquired Charlotte Marriot for $115MM and will use the property to showcase some initiatives before selling it
  • Employed capital to enter new markets. They seeded capital to grow in India and have now attracted additional capital. They are also investing some of their capital in [Brazil]
  • Proceeds from capital recycling are likely to exceed xxx
  • Have an LOI that would monetize all 3 Edition hotels upon their opening. 
  • Expect to return ~$1BN of cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends and expect to continue returning cash in 2014
  • They are very bullish on their prospects in 2014
  • Should experience considerable operating leverage in 2014 as SG&A growth slows



Q & A

  • Edition Hotels: Value was driven by MAR's estimated cost of completion. They will retain a long term management contract. MAR bear the construction risk around cost completion of the projects.  Performance measures are in the contract but they are standard
  • Why didn't they buy more shares this Q?  Their capex spending is about $100MM less than they expected - though leverage would be higher. The Edition sales are under an LOI but those aren't 100%. Don't want to spend money before they receive it. 
  • Hopeful that they will be able to avoid a government shutdown in early 2014
  • Over the last 6 or 7 quarters, they see business booked in the Q for future periods were mostly up but in the first 2 q's of this year it was down. So they saw a healthy inflection point this Q
  • Value of the condos at the Miami Edition? $100MM of estimated sales proceeds. Have about 60% of the SQFT to be sold under contract already. Pricing has been about $3,000/SQFT. Best guess is that they will recoup their invested capital. Not looking for gains on that peice. Ian Shrager's involvement is as a fee participant, so he will not participate in any return of capital
  • Managed hotel room count have been declining - what's going on there? The portfolio has been declining in the US and growing internationally.  In the US franchisee and management fees aren't really that different. Two drivers behind this trend: 1) increasing interest in franchise or managed formula in the US. 2) as their hotels age they have been deleting hotels from the system as they no longer meet brand standards.  Given that 20 years ago they were more titled towards mgmt vs. franchisee hotels a lot of the mgmt hotels are leaving the system.  A lot of these hotels change hands to a franchise hotel and get a lot of new capital to refresh them 
  • Today they don't franchise a single hotel in China - they manage all their hotels in that market
  • Select service is growing fast on the franchise side. Most of the domestic select service hotels are franchised
  • 16% of total domestic hotels in the US paid fees this Q vs. 12% last year. Not one of the Courtyard hotel portfolio of 120 hotels is paying fees - they will go from $0 to 100% fees on that portfolio. Feel like they will have nominal margin growth in 2014 on their hotels.  Feel like it will take a few more years to get them back to 2007 margins and then a few more years where incentive dollars will get back to prior peak levels in incentive fees. However, international incentive fees should continue to grow during this period.  Over the next few years international fees should exceed US incentive fees.
  • Low single digit RevPAR growth would imply incentive fees growing about the same as revenues. Plus new unit growth will also drive incentive growth performance because incentive fees kick in almost right away with new additions. Room openings should drive incentive fee growth of 10-15% in Asia even with only 3% RevPAR growth
  • The smaller the group the stronger activity. They are taking significant group share. Core hotels (full service between 250-450 rooms) see the best performance -- better than the larger big box hotels.  Part of that is due to the location of these hotels and that fact that they are more tilted towards corporate bookings. 
  • Have made a very deliberate effort to invest in growth in their (SG&A line) over 2012-2013.  Adding new brands (Moxie & seeding India, etc), investing in their teams around the world.  So 2014 should see some leverage. 
  • They will still continue to look for good brands and investment opportunities- not at the same pace as the last 2 years but are interested in some local brands etc. 
  • RevPAR guidance for 2014 is a little lower than some of the other guidance seen out there, despite their higher exposure to NA. 
    • can't really comment on anyone else's estimates for RevPAR. But that is their best estimate looking at group business on the books, special corporate accounts, yield management opportunities, and where things are trending
    • There is some positive mix impact in their numbers (meaning yielding better rated business and weeding out discount business) most of their RevPAR will be rate driven
  • Why are full service hotels now outperforming select service, despite select being mostly transient?
    • Group is growing less than transient. 
    • Select service has more distribution outside the top 25 MSA's which are outperforming secondary MSA's 
    • Full service has more concentration in the top 25 MSA's which outperform 
  • 2013 got hit in for the year in the year group bookings because of 2 government shutdowns. Hopefully 2014 will not
  • Have seen improvements in corporate spending but it has not come back to pre-"austerity" measures. You can see some of the recovery in F&B in the quarter which is trailing room revenues.  
  • They have always done well in converting other flags to their flags. Think that the Autograph brand is helping them do that 
  • Group revenue pace for 2014: +4% is overwhelmingly volume not rate.  Rate is up maybe 1%.  They hope that the last 40% of rooms booked will get more pricing power
  • Lower tax rate in 3Q: International tax returns - recorded a 1x $7MM benefit from accruals.  They are running closer to 32.5% - they will likely end in the 31.5-31.8% in 2013 as they grow internationally which tend to have lower tax rates than their domestica business. 
  • India is a difficult market to get financing - debt rates are in the mid-teens.  Anticipate that new deals at the luxury end in India slow down. Fairfield should continue to do well though
  • Fees should increase next year and they should get proceeds from at least a few of the Edition hotels.  So they expect that they should continue to "deliver healthy" returns to their shareholders- wouldn't say that they will return at least $1BN but implied it. Over time, share price is less of a determinant factor
  • Any trend changes in cancellations and attrition in group meetings aside from what's going on in DC.  They generally see positive building trends in Group
  • Aurora Gaylord, they are hopeful but its a bit far away. They would not build that on their balance sheet. 
  • Trends were better in July and August and weaker in September - partly due to the threat of the government shutdown but have not seen continuing deterioration.



  • 3Q base management and franchise fees: $325MM, up $42MM YoY.  $25MM FY calendar change impact. 
  • 3Q worldwide incentive management fees: $53MM, up $17MM. $12MM FY calendar change impact.  Incentive management fees improved in New York and Boston, were flat in many international markets and declined in Washington, DC and Egypt.  32% of worldwide company-managed hotels earned incentive management fees compared to 28% in the year-ago quarter.
  • Owned, leased, corporate housing and other revenue, net of direct expenses: $34MM. $2MM FY calendar change impact. $7MM termination fees. $2MM pre-opening costs:  two EDITION hotels.
    • On July 31, the company estimated third quarter owned, leased, corporate housing and other revenue, net of direct expenses would total approximately $20 million for 3Q.  Actual results in the quarter exceeded those expectations largely due to $8 million of termination and branding fees, $6 million of which were expected in the fourth quarter, as well as better than expected performance at several leased hotels.
  • At the end of the third quarter, the company’s worldwide pipeline of hotels under
    signed contracts increased to over 144,000 rooms. In addition, the company has more than 31,000 rooms
    approved, but not yet subject to signed contracts
  • Nearly 6,600 rooms were added during the quarter, including over 2,500 rooms converted from competitor brands and roughly 2,100 rooms in international markets;
  • 3Q cash: $144MM
  • 3Q debt:  $3.156BN
  • Repurchased 3.2MM shares of common stock in 3Q at a cost of $129MM



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