What's New Today in Retail (10/31)

Takeaway: Big rebound in ath apparel v. storm-impacted ‘12. TGT lowers rev goal by $9bn. Food stamp cut to hurt WMT, TGT, $ Stores, supermarkets.

ECONOMIC/INDUSTRY DATA

Athletic Apparel Data

 

Takeaway: 29% growth in last week's athletic apparel data -- simply unbelievable. This is one of the highest numbers we can recall seeing in over 10-years of tracking this data.  Now for the sobering caveat….we're comping against a storm-impacted 2012, so compares are extremely easy.  The biggest winners for the week? Arcteryx and UnderArmour -- both up over 70%, and Nike up over 50%.

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart1 10 31

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart2 10 31

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart3 10 31

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart4 10 31

 

COMPANY NEWS

TGT - Target Backs Off $100 Billion Sales Goal

(http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303618904579168112363794976?mod=WSJ_qtnews_wsjlatest)

  • "Target Corp. backed off its goal for hitting $100 billion in sales by the end of 2017, as pressure on low-income shoppers and tough competition from rivals like Amazon.com Inc. weigh on results."
  • "The shortfall will come from Target's U.S. operations, rather than Canada, where its early foray has met with some struggles attracting customers and managing inventory. While Canada's contribution of $6 billion in sales by 2017 is still on track, the U.S. division's sales will be around $85 billion instead of $94 billion."
  • "Target now expects overall U.S. sales to rise 3% to 4% a year through 2017, instead of 5%."
  • "On a webcast of the meeting, Chief Financial Officer John Mulligan said the company still expects to generate $8 a share in profit in 2017, as the company opens fewer new stores and expects to buy back more stock. Target's shares closed up 2.2% at $65.71."

Takeaway: This is as big a statement we can ever recall hearing from a mega cap retailer. Going from $94bn to $85bn? That sales reduction is in itself bigger than 90% of retailers in the US.  The market's reaction is a bit perplexing. Either a) people knew this was coming down the pike, b) they were expecting a greater decline in sales, or c) they like the financial engineering to drive EPS. Of course we should also consider that TGT was never afraid to miss its targets. It was never a serial sandbagger. This actually puts the company's forecasts within a realistically achievable range.

WMT, TGT, KR - Retailers Brace for Reduction in Food Stamps

(http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303843104579168011245171266?mod=ITP_marketplace_0)

  • "Retailers and grocers are bracing for another drain on consumer spending when a temporary boost in food-stamp benefits expires Friday. The change will leave 48 million Americans with an estimated $16 billion less to spend over the next three years and comes just months after the expiration of a payroll tax cut knocked 2% off consumers' monthly paychecks."
  • "Enrollment in food-stamp benefits surged during the recession and in its wake, increasing by 70% from 2007 to 2011 before leveling off. The government's stimulus program increased Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits across the board by 13.6% in 2009."
  • "As that temporary increase expires on Friday, benefits for a family of four receiving a maximum allotment will drop by 5.4%, the equivalent of about $36 a month, or $420 a year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture."
  • "The $16 billion, three-year toll of the cuts estimated by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities pales in comparison with the estimated $120 billion, one-year hit caused by the earlier expiration of the payroll tax cut. But for many retailers the two have a cumulative effect."

Takeaway: Bad for the consumer, and as such it's bad for WMT, TGT, Supermarkets, and Dollar Stores.

JNY, GIII - Jones Group auction pits Sycamore against G-III

(http://nypost.com/2013/10/30/jones-group-auction-pits-sycamore-against-g-iii/)

  • "The New York-based owner of Anne Klein, Nine West and Stuart Weitzman is entering the final stages of an auction process that pits the buyout firm Sycamore Partners against apparel company G-III, The Post has learned."
  • "Jones is in talks to sell itself at a price tag between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion, or roughly $16.50 to $17.50 a share, according to sources close to the talks."

Takeaway:  Odd to see a private equity firm pitted against a strategic buyer. Separately, JNY reported earnings, and its SIGMA trajectory was one of the most encouraging (headed up and to the right) that we've seen in a while. Too bad it does not matter anymore.

JNY - JNY Q313 Earnings

 

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart7 10 31

NKE, FL - KD VI hits stores today

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart5 10 31

 

Takeaway: One of the ugliest shoes we've seen out of Nike in a while. That means that kids will probably love it.

LULU - Lululemon to move into one of world’s famous shopping zone

(http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/garment-company-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=154899)

  • "Beverly Hills based Maxxam Enterprises announced that fast-growing yoga themed apparel retailer Lululemon has signed a long-term lease to move into a prime Third Street Promenade location in Santa Monica, California."
  • "Lululemon expects to open its 6,400 square foot store in 2014."

FNP - Lucky Brand Opens Beverly Hills Flagship

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/specialty-stores/lucky-brand-opens-beverly-hills-flagship-7257486?module=hp-retail)

  • "The nearly 4,500-square-foot store on Beverly Drive is a platform for Lucky Brand’s increasingly expansive portfolio of merchandise that extends from kids to, for the first time, home."

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart6 10 31

Takeaway: FNP clearly is keeping its foot on the gas in growing Lucky -- even while it's on the block. That's a great move as it relates to keeping interest alive.

PETM - Dorothy the English Bulldog from Texas Wins $10,000 in PetSmart’s Halloween Photo Contest

(http://phoenix.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196265&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1870576&highlight=)

What's New Today in Retail (10/31) - chart8 10 31

Takeaway: No, McGough is not losing his mind. Just couldn't resist putting this photo in on Halloween.

JOEZ - OAKRIDGE CENTRE ADDS JOE’S®, A CANADIAN FIRST

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=84356&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1870640&highlight=)

  • "Today, Joe’s Jeans Inc. in conjunction with Curiologie Development Ltd. announced the grand opening of the first Joe’s® retail boutique in Canada. Located in the Oakridge Centre in Vancouver, B.C., the flagship Canadian location will feature the brand’s signature designer denim line, as well as all the latest lifestyle pieces and accessories for men, women and children. The boutique is the thirty-fifth location for Joe’s® and is set to open to the public on November 2, 2013."

Bruno Magli - Bruno Magli to Change Hands

(http://www.wwd.com/business-news/financial/bruno-magli-to-change-hands-7255943?module=hp-accessories)

  • "British investment fund Fortelus Capital, which acquired the brand in 2007, has entered into exclusive negotiations with a consortium of South Korean investors that include E-Land Group and Asian private equity investor CDIB Capital to sell the entirety of the storied Italian footwear brand."
  • "E-Land formed a venture with Kate Spade in Mainland China, and has taken took control ofaccessories brand Mandarina Duck and Italian brand Belfe, among others."

INDUSTRY NEWS

Google Holiday Study Cites Big Web Presence

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/trends-analysis/google-holiday-study-cites-big-web-presence-7257857?module=hp-business)

  • "Half of all U.S. consumers will research holiday goods online prior to Thanksgiving weekend, and 60 percent will make a Web purchase that weekend, according to a holiday research study conducted by Google set to be released today."
  • "Eighty-nine percent of shoppers will use the Internet this holiday season and 79 percent call the Web their most useful shopping resource. Three-quarters of consumers will use online research to help determine which brands and retailers they’ll turn to and what kinds of gifts they’ll buy."
  • "Forty-one percent of adult shoppers will use a smartphone to either shop or for research this holiday. And out of all shoppers who own a smartphone, 76 percent will use their device to shop this year and 25 percent will transact via their mobile device."
  • "Millennials ...will drive mobile holiday shopping. Eighty-eight percent of smartphone owners in this group will use their device for online shopping and 31 percent said they will transact via their smartphone. The study saw a 28 percent year-over-year increase in Millennial smartphone owners who plan to make a mobile holiday purchase — versus just a 13 percent increase for adults ages 35 and over."