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H 3Q13 CONF CALL NOTES

Key takeaways were better group bookings and a much improved asset transactions market.

 

 

"In the third quarter, positive demand trends in the U.S., among both transient and group guests, were accompanied by challenges in certain international markets, including China and India. We continue to be focused on growing fees and increasing margins while pursuing additional growth opportunities." 

 

- Mark S. Hoplamazian, president and chief executive officer of Hyatt Hotels Corporation

 


CONF CALL NOTES

  • Pace of openings has accelerated this year. 
  • Andaz Maui: first new resort on Maui in over a decade. The property also has villas which will be sold to buyers over time. 2 of the 12 villas are already under contract. Expect that the resort will ramp up over the next year or 2.
  • Hyatt Regency Orlando: largest single property acquisition in the company's history. It's adjacent to the convention center, which is the second largest convention center in the country.  Years ago they purchased 40 acres of land adjacent to the convention center but never developed the land because of construction costs rising.  Feel like they can add value by adding smaller corporate groups and transient travel through their system.  They are already doing that.  They feel like they have turned away plenty of Orlando group business to make them confident that they can fill this hotel.
    • $10MM of EBITDA in the 4Q of 2013.  Historically this hotel earns 2/3rd of its EBITDA in the first half of the year
    • Acquired for below replacement cost
  • Made a significant investment in Playa hotels during the 3rd Q. Expect to earn between $18-20MM of EBITDA from this JV in 2014
  • M&A: Over the last 6 months they accelerated their asset disposal activity. Sold for an average of 5% on trailing NOI. They don't have any hotels listed by brokers but do expect to sell additional hotels over then next year and are in discussions with various interested parties.
  • Didn't purchase a lot of stock in 3Q because of transaction activity
  • Benefits from strong RevPAR growth in San Fran and Maui and completed renovation in San Diego 
  • Group revenue benefited from strength in Atlanta and Anaheim
  • China RevPAR declined 3.5%
  • UK had a 15% RevPAR decline, excluding this market RevPAR would have been up 5% in this region EMEA/SW. Asia
  • ME was strong
  • Overall EBITDA was negatively impacted by: 1) transaction activity by a net $5MM and also negatively impacted unconsolidated JV EBITDA by $2MM; 2) Maui ramp up/pre-opening costs were $3MM 3) lower incentive fees
  • Lease termination fee benefited NA owned and leased margins y 50bps but was offset by higher rent/property expenses which negatively impacted NA margins by 80bps
  • Converted 4 hotels in France this year but higher unexpected wage and benefit costs negatively impacted them
  • Margin growth is likely to be modest due to higher property taxes and rent expense costs and will ease in 2Q14
  • Group production increased 9% in the quarter. Group pace for 2014 is now up in the low single digit range. 

Q&A

  • Really pleased in RevPAR trends in the Q and results were good when you take into account the $10MM impact. Americas performance was positive. SG&A was well managed. Pre-opening at Wailea was much higher than they expected.
  • Incentive management fees for the French hotels was lower than expected
  • Rent expense and property taxes were higher than they expected
  • Had an $8MM gain in relation to the gain from sales of residences in Maui 
  • Disruptive activities in Grand Hyatt HK and 4 French hotels
  • Atlanta: cautioned about challenging prospective results over the coming year. Still believe that due to the calender, 2014 will be challenging in Atlanta.  This quarter was very good though. 
  • Hawaii, Dallas and San Fran were particularly strong in the Q.
  • Don't see a major impact from the government shutdown in 4Q.  It's in the low million range so far.
  • Group business update: 
    • Group pace is up in the low single digit
    • 60% is on the books in 2014 today
    • Production in the Q for the Q was also strong
    • Feel better about group than a Q ago
  • Southern China was quite strong but North and Eastern China were quite challenged due to continuing effects of the austerity program. Feel like the austerity state is the new normal in China.
  • India - the market is quite disrupted. Rupee is under a lot of pressure - but benefited them bc more Indians stayed in the country. Feel like conditions are starting stabilize though.
  • Cash $800MM - excluding $400MM of restricted cash tied to hotels for sale through 1031 exchanges
  • Expect to continue to fund any buybacks with cash 
  • Sold: 6 full service hotels for about 15x TTM EBITDA. transaction activity should be neutral in 4Q, except with the addition of Peabody Orlando.
  • Unconsolidated JV EBITDA. Waikiki will continue to be a drag for the next few Qs
  • Playa Resorts:What kind of EBITDA do they expect? Expect to add 6 hotels from the Playa portfolio (out of 13) or 3,000 rooms to their managed portfolio. $18-20MM of EBITDA for next year. They did not recognize any EBITDA from Playa this Q due to some lag accounting. Expect $4-5MM to come through in the 4Q.  They also have renovations for the properties that have yet to be converted. 3Q is seasonally the weakest.
  • Peabody will not impact RevPAR since its not comparable - not until 2015. They did not draw on the revolver
  • Hyatt Regency New Orleans: No impact from the redemption of their preferred interest in that property. It was not in EBITDA as it was in the Other Income line.
  • Development expenses for new hotels are all included in SG&A
  • Don't see any unusual maintenance capex for 2014. 
  • They had over $800MM of cash plus received another $90MM from the redemption of their preferred interest
  • Guidance? They have been adding to clarity and detail in their disclosures. They have also been working on laying out how the company is expected to grow and evolve for Investor Day 2014.
  • Group business: Total production in the Q was strong - not just for in the Q for the Q production. Production for 2015 and further out association basis was stronger. The quarter was more driven by corporate vs. group business
  • Select service performance has really been superb. Relative to the US segment they are performing well. They look at market share as well within their markets. They are for the first time entering urban markets - big change for them. Up until now they have had no urban hotels. These new Urban openings are doing great.  That will also start to enhance the brand and enhance the absolute RevPAR levels (i.e. they will be a lot higher).
  • Overall M&A outlook:  Activity is up significantly. More capital chasing hotels. There is also a lot of momentum in performance in various markets. It will continue to be an attractive time for PE to be buying assets.
  • Still see plenty of opportunity to expand their presence in gateway cities and recycle repositioned assets as well as legacy assets
  • Park Hyatt is still supposed to open on time and on budget next year
  • Will continue to manage their buyback program in the same fashion that they have in the past. No comment on levels. 

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • Eleven hotels were opened. As of September 30, 2013, the Company's executed contract base consisted of approximately 215 hotels or approximately 50,000 rooms. . Our current base of executed contracts for new hotels is the largest it has ever been and represents approximately 40% of our current system size.
  • The Company repurchased 702,502 shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $41.28 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $29 million.  On October 29, 2013, the Company's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $200 million of common stock.
  • "We have made significant investments in 2013 to position the Company for growth, including an investment in Playa Hotels & Resorts which will enable us to enter the rapidly growing all-inclusive resort segment and to debut two newly created brands, Hyatt Ziva and Hyatt Zilara. We expect to open the first two franchised resorts by year-end and anticipate that our investment in Playa and our entry into this segment will provide us with a compelling platform for growth."
  • Adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased 2.9% in the third quarter of 2013
  • M&A in 3Q:

    • Sold Andaz Napa (141 rooms) and Andaz Savannah (151 rooms) for an aggregate amount of approximately $115 million.
    • Sold Hyatt Regency Santa Clara (501 rooms) for approximately $93 million. The total sale price may increase to $100 million if certain performance thresholds are met.
    • Sold Hyatt Regency Denver Tech Center (451 rooms) for approximately $60 million.
    • Entered the all-inclusive resort segment by investing $325 million in a joint venture.
    • An unconsolidated hospitality venture sold the Hyatt Regency Waikiki. The Company received approximately $6 million for its equity interest and received a full repayment of a $277 million note receivable which matured in July 2013. The Company continues to manage the hotel under a long-term agreement.
  • Subsequent M&A
    • Completed the acquisition of The Peabody Orlando for approximately $717 million in cash and rebranded the hotel as Hyatt Regency Orlando.
    • Received approximately $89 million in cash related to its investment in Hyatt Regency New Orleans, of which approximately $63 million reflects a return of capital and approximately $26 million reflects a preferred return. The Company continues to manage, and also retains a residual interest in, the hotel.
  • 2013 Guidance update:
    • Adjusted SG&A: $310MM
    • Capex: $250MM (including $80MM of investment in new properties)
    • Investment spending: $1.2BN
    • D&A: $340MM
    • Interest expense: $70MM
    • Hotel openings: 45

OWNED & LEASED HOTELS

  • Owned and leased Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.0% in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012 and was negatively impacted by approximately $5 million of portfolio changes related to dispositions, acquisitions and openings.
  • Pro rata share of unconsolidated hospitality ventures Adjusted EBITDA decreased 27.8% in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. The decrease was primarily due to portfolio changes related to openings and dispositions, including approximately $2 million related to the net impact of portfolio changes since the third quarter of 2012 and approximately $3 million related to pre-opening expenses and operating ramp-up at Andaz Maui at Wailea.
  • Comparable hotel revenue increased 5.8% in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. Comparable hotel expenses increased 5.5% in the third quarter of 2013
  • Comparable owned and leased hotel operating margins in the Americas were negatively impacted by higher benefit costs, rent increases at two hotels and higher property taxes partially offset by a non-recurring lease termination fee.  Comparable owned and leased hotel operating margins in ASPAC and EAME/SW Asia were negatively impacted by weaker market conditions in Seoul and a difficult comparison in London due to the Summer Olympics last year.


MANAGEMENT AND FRANCHISE FEE SEGMENT

  • Base management fees increased 10.8%.... primarily due to strong RevPAR performance in the Americas and newly converted hotels in EAME/SW Asia. 
  • Incentive management fees increased 11.1%... primarily driven by the contribution of newly converted hotels in EAME/SW Asia. Incentive management fees from newly converted hotels in EAME/SW Asia were approximately $3 million in the third quarter of 2013, which was below the Company's expectations. 
  • Franchise fees and other revenue increased 23.1%.... primarily due to new hotels and hotels recently converted from managed to franchised.
  • Group rooms revenue at comparable U.S. full service hotels increased 6.9%. Group room nights increased 3.8% and group ADR increased 3.0% in the third quarter of 2013
  • Transient rooms revenue at comparable U.S. full service hotels increased 8.7%. Transient room nights increased 4.4% and transient ADR increased 4.2%
  • ASPAC RevPAR was negatively impacted by weaker demand coupled with increased supply in China and revenue from management and franchise fees decreased 10.5%, while EBITDA for the segment remained flat
  • EMEA/SW Asia RevPAR was negatively impacted by lower demand levels in London.  Revenue from management and franchise fees increased 35.7%... primarily due to newly converted hotels. Adjusted EBITDA increased 120%
     



HYATT 3Q REPORT CARD

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance

 

 

OVERALL:

  • MIXED - Performance in the owned segment was worse than expected.  However, management provided a solid outlook driven by a much improved transactions market and strong group bookings for 2014/2015. 

 

GROUP BUSINESS/BOOKINGS

  • BETTER:  Group revenue up 7% in 3Q (Atlanta/Anaheim outperformed).  Group pace for 2014 has increased to low single digit growth rate.  60% on the books for 2014, as expected by mgmt. In the quarter, for the quarter bookings was strong, primarily driven by corporate business.  2015 and beyond looking great due to association business.
  • PREVIOUSLY:
    • Pace for 2014 bookings is roughly flat at this time.
    • Overall, over the short-term and consistent with what we stated last quarter, we expect group demand to continue to be positive but not as strong as transient demand.
    • Over the next 18 months, we expect Atlanta and Washington D.C. to continue to be challenging markets, while we expect others such as Chicago and Orlando to be stronger.

4 HOTELS IN FRANCE CONVERSION FEES

  • WORSE:  Incentive management fees for the French hotels were below mgmt expectations
  • PREVIOUSLY:
    • Over the first 12 months, post conversion, we expect to earn €5 million of base fees and €5 million to €10 million of incentive fees from these hotels.  There will likely be sequential quarter-to-quarter volatility in incentive fees due to the structure of the agreements. In fact, we expect to earn most of the incentive fees in the second and third quarters during the high seasonal months for these hotels.
    • Because the annual guarantee is measured on a quarterly basis, we may be required to fund up to the guarantee level in a particular quarter, which could negatively impact incentive fees in such a quarter. Again, we're on track to earn €10 million to €15 million of total fees over the first 12 months of operations of these hotels.

CHINA

  • SAME:  Strength in South China offset by weakness in North/East China.  Austerity program continued to weigh. 
  • PREVIOUSLY:
    • Northern China has been the weakest year-to-date. Eastern China is next in line, and Southern China is actually relatively positive. It's somewhat positive in RevPAR. So what you see is a contraction of business. And I think one of the reasons why Northern China which includes Beijing, is relatively more negatively impacted, is that is because of the austerity program. And while we've seen RevPAR contract, I'm happy to report that we maintain comp set leadership in our hotels in Beijing. So I would say that while the overall story is somewhat challenging, our relative performance has been encouraging in terms of our maintenance of our number one position in our respective comp sets.
    • We continue to have confidence in the long-term prospects in China, but anticipate that this year will continue to be challenging.

HOTEL TRANSACTIONS IMPACT

  • SAME:  Net Impact of Dispositions to Owned and Leased Adjusted EBITDA (incl JV) was $10MM in 3Q. Hotel transactions impact for 4Q should be net neutral, with the exception of Hyatt Regency Orlando which will contribute $10MM.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  Hotel transactions are expected to negatively impact our owned and leased EBITDA in the second half of this year. Specifically, we benefited from acquisitions, such as the Hyatt Regency Mexico City and The Driskill, which mostly offset the impact of asset sales through our second quarter. During the second half of 2013, however, we expect the earnings from recently sold hotels to have a negative impact on reported results, net of acquisitions due to the timing of these transactions and seasonality.

BAKU/LONDON CHALLENGES

  • WORSE:  RevPAR in London was down 15% due to Summer Olymphics comps.  Excluding London, EMEA/SW Asia REVPAR would have been up 5%.  Baku market continues to be challenged.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  Key owned hotels, particularly Baku and London are expected to have difficult comparisons in the third quarter. In Baku, we continue to face challenges related to significant increases in supply in this market. In London, our results last year benefited from the Diamond Jubilee, the Summer Olympics and the Farnborough Airshow. In London, we've grown market share year-to-date.

PLAYA/HOTEL TRANSACTIONS

  • SAME:  No EBITDA contributions from Playa in 3Q.  $18-20MM JV adjusted EBITDA from Playa in 2014 (fluctuations by quarter due to seasonality and timing).  Hyatt expects to open the first two franchised resorts by year-end.  Hotel transactions pace has picked up recently and has remained high.   
  • PREVIOUSLY:
    • During the third quarter, we expect to acquire an approximate 20% equity stake in Playa for $100 million, and purchase convertible preferred equity for $225 million. As to earnings associated with this transaction, in 2014, we would expect to earn in the range of $18 million to $20 million of EBITDA that will be reflected as JV EBITDA excluding franchise fees. We expect these earnings to grow over time as the resorts ramp-up, post renovations and re-branding.  I would say the second half of this year is probably quite modest (Playa contribution).
    • Our expected level of return on our investment is in the mid-teens percentage range, and represents a strong risk-weighted return. The minimum expected return on our convertible preferred equity investment is 10%, and we expect to achieve a higher return on our common equity investment. In addition to these returns, we expect to earn franchise fees from the six resorts that we plan to convert.
    • We believe the market continues to be healthy for transactions and have not seen any significant changes in buyer interest or pricing. And on the select service front, we have been, and I'll reiterate it again, we continue to be very active to look for potential deals and in some cases involving more than one or two properties. So bigger portfolio deals.

DC

  • SAME:  Government sequester continue to have an adverse impact, however, government shutdown had no impact.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  Government remains weak.  We've seen a decline in room nights, and part of that is revenue management, and part of it is underlying demand. Group remains somewhat weak at this point as 2014 paces down a bit. In D.C., we own the Park Hyatt Washington, D.C. We manage the Grand Hyatt and the Hyatt Regency. Both of those hotels have had some renovation impact this year.

RE-UP STOCK REPURCHASE AUTHORIZATION?

  • MIXED:  While share repurchases were lower sequentially in Q3, asset transactions were to blame.  On October 29, 2013, Hyatt's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $200MM of common stock.  The Company currently has approximately $211 million remaining under its repurchase authorization.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  We will continue to evaluate it.

Top 10 Questions for Twitter

Takeaway: Our top questions for Twitter's management ahead of their highly-anticipated IPO.

This note was originally published October 30, 2013 at 11:53 in Macro

Top 10 Questions for Twitter  - twa

In advance of our Twitter black book call on November 6th (details to follow), we thought we'd circulate our top questions for Twitter management on their IPO roadshow.

 

The TWTR Top 10:

 

1.  How are you going to use the IPO proceeds? Can you outline how we should expect the proceeds to accelerate your growth?
 
2.  More than 77% of Twitter users are from outside the United States, but only 26% of your consolidated revenue comes from outside the United States -  Why is the yield on international users so much lower, and how will this trend over time? Are there structural impediments to revenue internationally?
 
 3.  Timeline views per monthly average user (MAU) declined sequentially by 1% in Q3 2013? Is this an indication of engagement declining, or is there another dynamic at work?
 
4.  How should we think about the market size for the total number of global users? Especially, vis-à-vis Facebook’s 1.15 billion monthly users as of Q2 2013?
 
5.  Generally speaking, why have some advertisers been early adopters and others taken longer to begin advertising on your platform? How do you show ROI to advertisers?
 
6.  How will the financial model look longer term?  As an example, Facebook currently has costs of sales that are 26% of Q2 2013 revenue and Twitter is at 36%.  Longer term, is there any reason that Twitter can’t have operating margins comparable to Facebook?
 
7.  Acquisitions have been an important part of your strategy historically, are there any areas in particular that you are focused, like analytics as an example?
 
8.  How do you view the competitive landscape? In particular, Google, LinkedIn, and Facebook appear to have low barriers to entry given their high user bases and, as we all know, before Facebook there was MySpace.
 
9.  According to a recent Gallup poll of people that have joined Twitter 36% said they don’t use the service and 7% have admitted to shutting down their account.  Meanwhile, only 7% of Facebook users don’t use their account and only 5% admitted to shutting down their account. What do you make of this poll and the implication on user engagement?  Along that line, how much time per week, or month, does the average user spend per month on the site?
 
10.  What are the most important metrics for the health of your business?
 

Bonus Question:  What keeps you up at night? 

 

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 


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HOW BAD IS RESTAURANT EARNINGS SEASON?

The 3Q13 earnings season has largely been highlighted by disappointing results across the board in the restaurant industry.  The Casual Dining EPS Beat/Miss Index is currently running at 33% and the Quick Service EPS Beat/Miss index is running at 43%, both of which are very low percentages, historically.

 

  • The Hedgeye Casual Dining EPS Beat/Miss Index has only been below 50% in 1 of the past 26 quarters – 3Q08. 
  • The Hedgeye Quick Service EPS Beat/Miss Index has only been below 50% in 3 of the past 26 quarters – 1Q07, 2Q08 and 3Q08.

 

HOW BAD IS RESTAURANT EARNINGS SEASON? - CD EPS

  

HOW BAD IS RESTAURANT EARNINGS SEASON? - QSR EPS

  

 

It is interesting to note that, despite poor earnings, the Bloomberg Full Service Casual Dining Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by +2.6%, +4.9% and +18.3% over the past week, past three months and year-to-date, respectively.  On the other hand, the Bloomberg QSR Index has underperformed the S&P 500 by -0.4% and -1.3% over the past week and past three months, respectively, and has outperformed by the S&P 500 by +11.8% year-to-date.

 

This outperformance has come amidst a sluggish top line environment.  Although sales trends continue to slow on a 2-year basis, we suspect they will begin to accelerate in 4Q13 and continue into 1Q14.  In our opinion, lower gas prices year-over-year will support this stronger sales environment.

 

 

 

HOW BAD IS RESTAURANT EARNINGS SEASON? - SRS

 

HOW BAD IS RESTAURANT EARNINGS SEASON? - gas prices

 

 

As always, there will be winners and losers in each respective segment, as some companies are better positioned to benefit from an improving top line environment than others.

 

In the QSR space, we continue to like SBUX, YUM, KKD, CMG & JACK on the long side and PNRA & MCD on the short side.

 

In the Casual Dining space, we continue like EAT, CAKE & DRI on the long side and RRGBBLMN & RT on the short side.

 

 

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 


Top 10 Questions for Twitter Management during IPO Roadshow

In advance of our Twitter black book call on November 6th (details to follow), we thought we'd circulate our top questions for Twitter management on their IPO roadshow.

 

The TWTR Top 10:

 

1.  How are you going to use the IPO proceeds? Can you outline how we should expect the proceeds to accelerate your growth?

 

2.  More than 77% of Twitter users are from outside the United States, but only 26% of your consolidated revenue comes from outside the United States -  Why is the yield on international users so much lower, and how will this trend over time? Are there structural impediments to revenue internationally?

 

 3.  Timeline views per monthly average user (MAU) declined sequentially by 1% in Q3 2013? Is this an indication of engagement declining, or is there another dynamic at work?

 

4.  How should we think about the market size for the total number of global users? Especially, vis-à-vis Facebook’s 1.15 billion monthly users as of Q2 2013?

 

5.  Generally speaking, why have some advertisers been early adopters and others taken longer to begin advertising on your platform? How do you show ROI to advertisers?

 

6.  How will the financial model look longer term?  As an example, Facebook currently has costs of sales that are 26% of Q2 2013 revenue and Twitter is at 36%.  Longer term, is there any reason that Twitter can’t have operating margins comparable to Facebook?

 

7.  Acquisitions have been an important part of your strategy historically, are there any areas in particular that you are focused, like analytics as an example?

 

8.  How do you view the competitive landscape? In particular, Google, LinkedIn, and Facebook appear to have low barriers to entry given their high user bases and, as we all know, before Facebook there was MySpace.

 

9.  According to a recent Gallup poll of people that have joined Twitter 36% said they don’t use the service and 7% have admitted to shutting down their account.  Meanwhile, only 7% of Facebook users don’t use their account and only 5% admitted to shutting down their account. What do you make of this poll and the implication on user engagement?  Along that line, how much time per week, or month, does the average user spend per month on the site?

 

10.  What are the most important metrics for the health of your business?

 

11.  What keeps you up at night? 

 

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 


$LULU Taps Tara Poseley. Huh?

Takeaway: Lululemon's decision here strikes us as odd.

Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough is scratching his head over a recent hire at Lululemon.

 

$LULU Taps Tara Poseley. Huh? - lulu5

  • Lululemon Athletic on Tuesday named Tara Poseley chief product officer."
  • "Poseley, who most recently was president of the multichannel, multicategory Kmart apparel business, will be responsible for merchandising, inventory, allocation and strategic planning. In her new role, Poseley will oversee Lululemon’s global design strategy, working with the senior vice presidents of women’s and men’s design...In her 25-year career, Poseley has run men’s, women’s, accessories, kid’s and intimate apparel businesses as an executive at Bebe Stores, Disney Stores North America and Design Within Reach."

Takeaway: This definitely strikes us as odd. LULU has the luxury of hiring only the best people -- but the former head of K-Mart's apparel business??? That's a head-scratcher. Disney and DWR definitely lend a lot of credibility. I know it sounds like we're nit-picking here…but perhaps that's because we were hoping that the next executive announcement would be for a new CEO. After all, Christina Day (who we happen to be a fan of) was, in effect, pushed out back in June, but still sits at the helm nearly 5-months later. Very odd.

 

Related video: Why We're Bullish on Restoration Hardware


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