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In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance

OVERALL:

SLIGHTLY WORSE - 2014 guidance (net yields: 4ish and EPS: $2.20ish) missed Street expectations slightly but EPS was in line with us.  Weak Caribbean commentary was offset by positive signs from Europe.   

NCLH 3Q REPORT CARD - nclh1

2014

  • WORSE:  mgmt lowered 1Q 2014 bookings expectations primarly due to the heightened compeitive environment in the Caribbean
  • PREVIOUSLY:  We're feeling pretty decent about what's going on for next year, although it's early. We're feeling pretty good about the booking patterns for 2014. First quarter, we're feeling very good about both on the load and the price.

PROMOTIONAL ENVIRONMENT

  • WORSE:  Mgmt refused to say promotional environment in the Caribbean has abated in the last month or so.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  I would say that we've had some promotional activities going on following that. And when I look at it right now, I would say that things in the last few weeks seem to have been a little bit better. And I think some of the noise as well is – some of the players may be doing a little bit more from a promotional standpoint to fill up their ships.  Having said that, what I'm seeing now is that will play out over the remainder of this year.

GETAWAY

  • SAME:  Getaway will be introduced in January 2014.  Bookings have been consistent with mgmt expectations.    
  • PREVIOUSLY:  Norwegian Getaway, is getting ready for her debut in Miami early next year.

ONBOARD REVENUE

  • SAME:  3Q onboard revenue grew 1.5%, led by strong performance from the casino segment.  4Q onboard revenue is back to normal.
  • PREVIOUSLY:
    • Onboard, we have a great quarter – some of it is Breakaway, some of it is just the continuing efforts we have. I would tell you that the remainder of the year is built into our forecasted guidance and yields...But it is a little lumpy.

EUROPE

  • SAME:  Positive commentary regarding 2014.  Mgmt believes mid-single digit pricing gains is reasonable.
  • PREVIOUSLY:
    • We've been able to bottom out in Europe market with yields and we're starting to see the ticket yields improving. But there are a few more Europeans on the ships than what has been the trend.
    • On the margin, we're seeing a bit more of the Americans, but we're also seeing quite a few – and you look at the European economic situation, you're getting a little bit of a later booking from some of these countries. And we're all fighting for the same number of consumers. So in some cases, you're getting people that are spending a little bit less from the European side.