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What's New Today in Retail (10/28)

Takeaway: Nike puts out another $25k shoe. Watch the H&M spawn. Nike and Adidas battle w/ new apparel lines. More hints of Alibaba dominance.



ICON - Earnings Call: Tuesday 10/29 10:00 am




NKE - Converse Collaborates With Nate Lowman and Just One Eye



  • "...a new collaboration spearheaded by Los Angeles concept shop Just One Eye has turned the iconic sneaker into a canvas for Nate Lowman.  The New York-based multimedia artist created 21 unique high-tops using two of his own deconstructed works."
  • "Priced at $25,000, each limited-edition pair is lined in Italian calf leather and required 180 hours of work."


What's New Today in Retail (10/28) - chart1 10 28


Takeaway: That's $139/hr in labor. Pretty reasonable for an up and coming artist.


HMB - COS Builds Base for Expansion



  • "The much-anticipated younger sibling of H&M is opening its first U.S. store, a 4,500-square-foot flagship at 129 Spring Street in SoHo here, in spring 2014."
  • "COS, which stands for Collection of Style, is eyeing other locations in Manhattan, and plans to enter markets across the U.S. such as Chicago and California as it moves closer to a rollout in this country."
  • "COS, whose prices start where H&M’s leave off, offers modern, stylish and timeless collections produced from materials such as leather, fine suiting and cashmere. Prices range from $39 to $390 for dresses and $225 to $450 for men’s outerwear.  In addition to men’s and women’s wear, a full children’s collection launched in 2009."


Takeaway: Anytime HMB does anything, we watch and listen. The most notable factor here is that COS is testing the upper echelons of the price spectrum. That's not a slam-dunk by any means. If you asked 100 consumers why they shop at H&M, 50 would say its stylish, but the other 50 would say it's cheap. We're curious to see how the new M.O. resonates with consumers.


JCP - JCPenney picks shopkick mobile app to reward customers



  • "J. C. Penney Company, Inc. announced that it has teamed up with shopkick, the most widely used real-world shopping app that rewards shoppers for simply walking into stores."
  • "Just in time for the key holiday shopping season, JCPenney shoppers will be able to earn 'kicks,' shopkick's proprietary reward currency, along with special offers from JCPenney, when visiting the retailer's nearly 1,100 store locations across the country. To celebrate the launch, JCPenney will be offering shopkick users additional kicks for a limited time when they visit a JCPenney store."
  • "When a shopkick user walks into a participating store, the app detects the shopkick signal emitted from a patent-pending device, which is picked up by the shopper's smartphone. The app then deposits kicks, which can be collected and redeemed for gift cards, song downloads, movie tickets, Facebook credits, donations to charities and more."


Takeaway: Yet another new initiative that no one will give JCP one iota of credit for.


KER - Puma's Revenues Slide in Q3 



  • "Puma's Q3 revenues slid 7.6 percent in the third quarter to £824.8 million ($1.14 bn) from £892.2 million, according to a revenue update from its parent, Kering. Puma’s sales for the quarter were down 0.8 percent on a comparable basis. The decline was due to lower footwear sales. Accessories and apparel were up 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively."
  • "By country, Kering noted in its presentation with analysts that sales in North America, representing 20 percent of Puma's sales, grew 5 percent. In other regions, Western Europe (representing 34 percent of Puma's sales) was down 2 percent; Japan (8 percent), was down 6 percent; Asia Pacific (13 percent), slipped 1 percent; and Other Countries (25 percent) was also off 1 percent."


Takeaway: At least Puma put up a +5% number in the US.  It might not be its biggest region, but it's one of the most important.


HBC - Hudson's Bay Co. Taps Michael Crotty and Russ Hardin



  • "Hudson’s Bay Co...has named Michael Crotty executive vice president and chief marketing officer, and Russ Hardin senior vice president and chief creative officer."
  • "Crotty has more than 25 years experience in multichannel retailing, marketing and brand management...Rodbell [incoming President of the HBC Department Store Group] said Crotty will be responsible for the overall marketing strategy for Hudson’s Bay and Lord & Taylor."
  • "Hardin recently worked at Kohl’s...Rodbell said Hardin will be responsible for building all creative elements for Hudson’s Bay and Lord & Taylor, and lead social media, public relations and event activities."


Takeaway: If HBC can source such talent, can someone explain to me why JCP can't find a CEO?


NKE - Nike unveils Hi-Vis winter apparel collection



  • "...Nike has created the Hi-Vis Collection of winter apparel, footwear and equipment enabling athletes to train and play at the same intensity throughout the season and with zero distractions.  The Hi-Vis Collection features bright and contrasting color combinations of Volt, Electro Purple, Green Glow and Electric Green on the apparel, footwear and equipment."


What's New Today in Retail (10/28) - chart3 10 28


Takeaway: This is a big deal for Nike, as it has been absent in large part from cold-weather gear since it backed away from its All Conditions Gear (ACG) line.


ADS - Adidas & NBA to debut new on-court collection



  • "As tip-off nears on Oct. 29, adidas and the NBA will debut an all-new premium collection of on-court apparel. The NBA On-Court Collection will outfit all 30 NBA teams…"


What's New Today in Retail (10/28) - chart2 10 28


Takeaway: Nike hates this kind of press. That said, it would rather focus its efforts on what people wear on their feet -- not their warm-ups.


LVMH - Kenzo Opens Shanghai Store



  • "Located in the newly opened L’Avenue mall in the city’s western district of Hongqiao, the 2,500-square-foot store is the brand’s seventh point of sale in China’s financial capital."
  • "L’Avenue is a joint venture between LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton’s real estate arm, L Real Estate, and Hong Kong real estate developer Stanley Ho. It’s populated with some of LVMH’s leading brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Fendi, Céline and, now, Kenzo."




Western Retailers See Online as Ticket to China



  • "The promise of e-commerce in China has attracted foreign companies for years. Yet Western companies, such as eBay Inc.,  Google Inc., and Groupon Inc., have struggled in China, partly because of competition from domestic giants. Western retailers also have had concerns about the difficulties of distribution in the country and its Web shoppers' insistence on low prices."
  • "But China's e-commerce—which, by some measures, overtook the U.S. this year as the world's largest online retail marketplace—has become too big to ignore. Online retail sales in China are expected to reach about $540 billion by 2015, compared with roughly $345 billion in the U.S., according to consulting firm Bain & Co. China's online retail sales have increased more than 70% annually since 2009, compared with 13% in the U.S."
  • "After closing branded stores in China, do-it-yourself home retailer Home Depot Inc. and electronics chain Best Buy Inc. this year opened stores on Alibaba's Tmall, the country's leading online consumer marketplace."
  • "China's shoppers also have come to expect heavy discounts, putting pressure on profit margins. In a Bain survey of 1,300 online shoppers in China this year, half the respondents said price was the No. 1 reason they shopped online."


Takeaway: Watch out for the Alibaba IPO. We've never seen such a dominant business model in anything that touches the consumer.


UPS forecast confirms e-commerce growth



  • "A compressed shopping season coupled with the continued growth of e-commerce has UPS forecasting that peak season daily package volumes will grow by 8%."
  • "UPS said it expects December 16 to be its highest volume day of the year with package pick-up expected to total 34 million. To put the growth of e-commerce in perspective, UPS said this year it expects there will be five delivery days within the peak season when package volume exceeds its busiest day last year. For example, after December 16, UPS said its next busiest volume day is expected to be Cyber Monday, December 2, when package volumes are forecast to total 32 million."


Takeaway: Unlike all those 'dart-throw' surveys by the NRF and various consulting firms, the UPS forecast is about as accurate as it gets.


What's Selling: Comfort




  • Propét Alta tall fleece boot
  • Cobb Hill Elaine embellished flat
  • Aravon Wendy loafer

Top fall trend: “More people are coming in looking for a casual shoe,” said Pam Dulaney, store manager. “However, the weather is still nice.”

DANCY’S, Boone, N.C.

  • Alegria clogs and Mary Jane styles
  • Aetrex Valerie stretch-vamp skimmer
  • Orthaheel 

Top fall trend: “Boots are taking off,” said GM Russell Gullet. “GoLites [are popular] in winter because they’re comfortable, warm and waterproof.”

WHEN THE SHOE FITS, Vancouver, Wash.

  • Dansko Tamara clog-based slip-on
  • Keen Toyah lace-up style
  • Merrell Encore clog series

Top fall trend: “Customers want to be a little dressier with comfort [features],” said President Alan O’Hara. “They prefer a little heel, and brands such as Pikolinos, Taos and Earthies have options in this [area].”

ELEMENTS, Berkeley, Calif.

  • Earth Catamount wedge boot and Bellweather skimmer
  • Fly London Yoko platform wedge
  • Bernie Mev woven upper on memory-foam outsoles 

Top fall trend: “Ankle boots are a new trend this season,” said manager Penelope Adibe. “We are also doing well with wedges.”


  • Wolky Rosa lace-up style
  • Pikolinos ankle boots
  • Brooks Addiction

Top fall trend: Ankle boots are performing at the store, said owner Chris Harrison. “Women already own knee-high boots, and they last a long time.”


Cambodia: 22% Spike In Garment Exports



  • "Cambodia’s garment export sector is booming according to numbers recently released showing a healthy increase of 22 percent in the nation’s shipments of clothing to foreign customers from the first of the year through September."
  • "Total value of the exported apparel during the nine-month period hit $4.1 billion, substantially higher than the previous period last year of$3.44. As usual in recent years, the US was Cambodia’s best customer for their apparel, importing about $1.21 billion in goods."
  • "Cambodia is one of the latest countries of Southeast Asia to emerge as a major sourcing center as international firms send more business to that part of the world, attracted by low labor costs and a government and political environment hospitable to business."


Fed Powers

“The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined.”

-James Madison


In other news, one of Bloomberg’s leading headlines this morning takes the other side of Madison’s Federalist Papers: “Yellen Poised to Rival Obama with Financial Power.” Isn’t that just terrific!


Have no #EOW (end of world) fear, yet. There are plenty of voices in America (and abroad) who still believe that an un-elected, un-checked, and un-accountable Federal Reserve is about to meet its maker – The People.


“Unlike the modern Statist, who defies, ignores, or rewrites the Constitution for the purpose of evasion, I propose that we, the people, take a closer look at the Constitution for our preservation.” –Mark R. Levin, The Liberty Amendments (pg 12)


Back to the Global Macro Grind


I’m not a Tea Party person, but I often wonder why more dogmatic Democrats don’t show “folks” like Mark Levin some love. Some of these Constitutionalists hate the Republican party more than Dems do!

Irrespective of your politics or Sox/Cards affiliation, every morning in America is a great one where we can “take a closer look at the Constitution” and the un-precedented power both Bush and Obama have put in the hands of Bernanke and Yellen.


I read Levin’s new book in 8 hours. At a bare minimum, it was worth my time to re-realize what I didn’t remember about the US Constitution. At a maximum, it made me think. Unless Americans want their currency to burn, Venezuelan style, they better start thinking about this, and fast, too.


Last week’s US #GrowthSlowing signals in equities we’re definitely considering what Down Dollar, Down Rates means:

  1. Slow-Growth Indices led last week’s US stock market strength: Utilities (XLU) +2.0%, REITS +1.8%, MLPs +1.7%
  2. Pro-Growth Indices flashed their 1st major negative divergence of 2013: Russell2000 +0.3%, Financials (XLF) -0.2%

If you broaden your vantage point to currencies and commodities, you can see the causal Fed factor at work here:

  1. US DOLLAR: down another -0.6% last wk and down -3.4% in the last 3 months to now NEGATIVE -0.7% YTD
  2. GOLD: up another +2.7% last wk and up +1.7% over the same 3 month period as Mr. Market front-runs the Fed

All the while, what the Fed is really sponsoring here (volatility instead of price stability) flashed its 1st major divergence versus the “US stock market at all-time highs” thingy in 2013. Stocks up = VIX up.


Not to be confused with every other US equity market rally of 2013 that we were long of (we’re short this one):

  1. US Equity Volatility (VIX) is making a series of higher-lows (instead of lower-lows) now
  2. The 11-handles that the VIX saw in both March and August of 2013 were aligned with US #GrowthAccelerating

No, this has nothing to do with being a Republican or Democrat. It has nothing to do with social issues either. It has everything to do with Mr. Market’s expectations of what causal impact the Fed’s “no-tapering” decision could have on the slope of US economic growth.


To review US economic growth’s slope in 2013:

  1. #GrowthAccelerating: Q4 2012 GDP of 0.14% accelerated to +2.48% by Q2 of 2013
  2. ISM and PMI “New Orders” pinned 60-handles in Q3 of 2013
  3. The first batch of OCT 2013 weekly and monthly US economic data has slowed, sequentially

“Sequentially” is an important word. How many of your favorite political market/econ pundits could even tell you what it means? *Hint: slope of the line.


And away from this week’s FOMC decision to pander to the Bond Bull Lobby, you’ll be getting more of what you saw in the US Consumer Confidence (U of Michigan survey) last week (73.2 OCT vs 77.5 SEP, #GrowthSlowing). Here’s the Macro calendar:

  1. Thursday: Chicago PMI for October should slow sequentially from September’s 55.7
  2. Fiday: ISM for October should slow sequentially from September’s 56.2

I know. Who cares? It’s all about the Fed right? Yeah, right.


More like it’s all about your investing Style Factors. To get those right, you need to get the slope of these growth lines right.


And if, god forbid, we take a few hours to consider the Constitutional conflict of interest in the Fed trying to “smooth” things embedded in the line (like gravity and/or growth), we might actually drive ourselves right nuts.


I can get nuts. I felt nuts selling at the all-time highs of October 2007 too.


Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows:


UST 10yr Yield 2.44%-2.60%



VIX 11.59-14.96

USD 78.72-79.71

Gold 1


Best of luck out there this week,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Fed Powers - Chart of the Day


Fed Powers - Virtual Portfolio

real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

October 28, 2013

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The number of people who are not allowed to enter Singapore's two casinos has reached a high of 175,680.  This is almost four times the 47,178 placed under exclusion orders in June 2011 - the first time such figures were released after the safeguard against problem gambling was introduced four years ago.


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 28, 2013

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or 1.18% downside to 1739 and 0.87% upside to 1775.                              










THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  



  • YIELD CURVE: 2.21 from 2.21
  • VIX closed at 13.09 1 day percent change of -0.83%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Sept., est. 78.0% (prior 77.8%)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales m/m, Sept., est. 0.0% (prior -1.6%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manufacturing , Oct., est. 9 (prior 12.8)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b in 2017-2018 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $34b 3M bills, $30b 6M bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 2Y notes
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Stmt, Sept., est. $67.0b (prior $75.2b)


    • House, Senate in session
    • FCC discusses rural comms., 700MHz commer. spectrum, 11:30am
    • U.S. Mortgage Bankers Assn annual convention; speakers include former President George W. Bush, Fannie Mae CEO Timothy Mayopoulos, Freddie Mac CEO Don Layton, CFPB Director Richard Cordray, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.


  • JPMorgan to pay $5.1b to settle w/ Fannie, Freddie: FHFA
  • Provenge maker Dendreon said to be seeking takeover offers
  • Obamacare insurance websites limited by Verizon data failure
  • Snapchat financing round may value co. at $3.5b: AllThingsD
  • Facebook said to be rebuffed by Snapchat over possible deal
  • China signals “unprecented” policy changes at Plenum
  • Pension funds move into reinsurance’s cat risk business
  • DirecTV, Time Warner Cable said to consider Aereo-type services
  • Disney to show new cartoon through iPad first, NYT says
  • Numericable said to seek IPO valuation of up to $8.3b
  • Twitter IPO test-run successful, WSJ says, citing NYSE
  • GM looking to expand lead in China with Chevy SUVs
  • Ford CEO doesn’t regret conservative China approach: SCMP
  • Idaho debates use of private prisons, WSJ says
  • U.K. storm leaves 220k homes w/o power: U.K. Energy Network
  • “Bad Grandpa” takes first place at N. Am. wknd box office
  • Retail sales probably slowed in Sept.: U.S. Economy Preview
  • Fed Meeting, BOJ, Iran Talks, Apple: Wk Ahead Oct. 26-Nov. 2


    • Biogen Idec (BIIB) 6:30am, $2.09
    • CNA Financial (CNA) 6am, $0.76
    • Loews (L) 6am, $0.77
    • Merck (MRK) 7am, $0.87 - Preview
    • Roper Industries (ROP) 7am, $1.45
    • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) 7:56am, $0.01
    • Tenneco (TEN) 8am, $0.94


    • Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) 4:01pm, $0.38
    • American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4:01pm, $0.81
    • Amkor Technology (AMKR) 4:09pm, $0.10
    • Apple (AAPL) 4:30pm, $7.91
    • Arch Capital Group (ACGL) 4:01pm, $0.92
    • CNO Financial Group (CNO) 4:03pm, $0.28
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4:01pm, $0.66
    • Extra Space Storage (EXR) 4pm, $0.52
    • FMC (FMC) 4:15pm, $0.84
    • General Growth Properties (GGP) 4:01pm, $0.28
    • Hartford Financial Services (HIG) 4:15pm, $0.84
    • HealthSouth (HLS) 4:30pm, $0.43
    • Herbalife (HLF) 4:10pm, $1.14
    • Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) 4:01pm, $0.08
    • Macerich (MAC) Aft-mkt, $0.83
    • Masco (MAS) 5:09pm, $0.25
    • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) 4pm, $0.85
    • Oceaneering International (OII) 5:01pm, $0.94
    • Olin (OLN) 6pm, $0.64
    • Plum Creek Timber (PCL) 4:04pm, $0.42
    • PMC-Sierra (PMCS) 4:05pm, $0.10
    • Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 4:05pm, $0.23
    • Seagate Technology (STX) 4:01pm, $1.31 - Preview
    • Titan International (TWI) 4:30pm, $0.25


  • Copper Rises for Third Day on Speculation Fed to Keep Stimulus
  • Tin Advancing 8% for BNP as Indonesia Spurs Swings: Commodities
  • Brent Rises From 11-Week Low Before Federal Reserve Meeting
  • Gold Swings Near Five-Week High Before Fed Begins Policy Meeting
  • Russia Cuts Gold Assets for 1st Time in Year as Prices Drop
  • Palm Oil Gains as Much as 0.4% to 2,454 Ringgit, Erasing Losses
  • LME Copper Premiums at Record High as Inventories Fall: BI Chart
  • Crop Yields May Be Curbed by Australia Frost, GrainCorp Says
  • Stocks Top Gold by Most Since ’97 on Fed Delay: Chart of the Day
  • China Refinery Boom Cuts Margins for Asia Rivals: Energy Markets
  • Zimbabwe Considering Structure of International Mining Bond
  • Palm May Rally on Inverse Head-and-Shoulders: Technical Analysis
  • Indonesia Coal Drowning Seaborne Market, Relief May Be Ahead
  • Rubber Gains on Weaker Yen, Optimism Chinese Demand Will Rise


























The Hedgeye Macro Team