THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 17, 2013                                     

                                                                                

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.32 from 2.33
  • VIX closed at 14.71 1 day percent change of -21.17%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: Fed’s Fisher speaks to Economic Club of New York
  • 8:30am: Init. Jobless Claims, Oct. 11, est. 335k (prior 374k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Oct. (prior -9)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Oct. (prior -29.7)
  • 10am: Philly Fed Business Outlook, Oct., est. 15 (pr 22.3)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 2020-2023 sector
  • 11am: U.S. announces offering size for auction of 30Y TIPS
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Evans speaks on economy in Wisconsin
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s George speaks on economy in Oklahoma City
  • 2:45pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy in Mont.

GOVERNMENT:

    • Parts of the federal govt may reopen as soon as today following 16-day shutdown
    • FTC Commissioner Julie Brill delivers remarks on “Removing the Roadblocks to Affordability” at America’s Health Insurance Plans’ State Issues Conference, 4pm
    • Booker beats Lonegan for New Jersey U.S. Senate seat
    • Kentucky’s $1.2b public works pork included in debt deal

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Congress vote ends fiscal impasse; Obama signed measure
  • S&P cuts U.S. 4Q GDP growth outlook on fiscal impasse
  • Restarting government seen harder than shutting down
  • IBM 3Q EPS beats, rev. misses; reiterates yr EPS view
  • EBay holiday-quarter forecast misses analyst ests.
  • American Express 3Q EPS, rev. beat ests. on member spending
  • Facebook loosening rules to let teens share content publicly
  • J.C. Penney, Home Depot defeat $250m gift-card patent case
  • Barington Capital calls for breakup of Darden Restaurants: NYT
  • Twitter hires Google ad exec. Hirschle ahead of IPO
  • Ford to expand 2014 F-150 line to widen lead in pickup market
  • Jos. A. Bank won’t rule out hostile bid for Men’s Wearhouse
  • Tesla led Calif. zero-emission vehicle credit sales last yr
  • CEO funding Chevron lawsuit says he regrets supporting case
  • Beechcraft said to revive possible $1.5b sale

AM EARNS:

    • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7am, $2.66
    • Amphenol (APH) 8am, $0.97
    • B&G Foods (BGS) 7:35am, $0.40
    • Baxter Intl (BAX) 7am, $1.19 - Preview
    • BB&T (BBT) 5:45am, $0.70
    • Blackstone Group (BX) 8am, $0.56
    • Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 7:41am, $0.12
    • Danaher (DHR) 6am, $0.83
    • Dover (DOV) 7am, $1.50
    • Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS) 7:25am, $0.12
    • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30am, $0.42
    • Goldman Sachs Group (GS) 7:30am, $2.47 - Preview
    • Hubbell (HUB/B) 7:20am, $1.60
    • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) 5:55am, $0.17
    • M&T Bank (MTB) 8:03am, $2.09
    • Nucor (NUE) 9am, $0.39 - Preview
    • Peabody Energy (BTU) 8am, $(0.04) - Preview
    • Penn National Gaming (PENN) 7am, $0.46
    • Philip Morris Intl (PM) 6:59am, $1.43 - Preview
    • PPG Industries (PPG) 8:11am, $2.34
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 7am, $1.02
    • Snap-on (SNA) 7am, $1.42
    • Sonoco Products (SON) 7:30am, $0.61
    • Supervalu (SVU) 8am, $0.11 - Preview
    • Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $2.47 - Preview
    • UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6am, $1.53
    • Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30am, $0.74 - Preview

PM EARNS:

    • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 4:15pm, $0.02 - Preview
    • Align Technology (ALGN) 4pm, $0.30
    • Associated Banc (ASBC) 4:05pm, $0.26
    • Athenahealth (ATHN) 4:01pm, $0.31 - Preview
    • Capital One Financial (COF) 4:05pm, $1.81
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4:01pm, $2.78 - Preview
    • Cytec Industries (CYT) 4:06pm, $1.31
    • Google (GOOG) 4pm, $10.36 - Preview
    • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05pm, $3.40 - Preview
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4:01pm, $0.76 - Preview
    • People’s United Financial (PBCT) 4:02pm, $0.21
    • Rambus (RMBS) 4:05pm, $0.11
    • Stryker (SYK) 4pm, $0.99 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Cocoa Nears 25-Month High in New York on Dollar; Sugar Retreats
  • Gold Slumping to Four-Year Low for Best Forecasters: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Slips After Biggest Gain in a Week as Stockpiles Rise
  • Gold Jumps Most in Four Weeks on Dollar, Dagong U.S. Downgrade
  • Copper Falls as Investors Shift Focus to Prospects for Surplus
  • Wheat Gains on Concerns Argentina Needs More Rain to Boost Crops
  • Record Copper Output in China Seen by Antaike on Smelter Fees
  • Shanghai Rebar Falls as Inventory Gain Stokes Supply Concern
  • Gold-Silver Ratio May Rise to Two-Month High: Technical Analysis
  • Gasoline Refiners Lose in Europe as U.S. Exports: Energy Markets
  • Chocolate Prices Fueled by Cocoa Butter’s Gain: Chart of the Day
  • China Railways Trailing 1880 U.S. Show Spending Scope: Economy
  • Alcoa Doesn’t Know Impact of Saudi Outage on Aluminum Production
  • China Steel Production Outlook Raised as Supercycle Continues

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more