THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 15, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 40 points or 1.47% downside to 1685 and 0.87% upside to 1725.                       

                                                                                                        

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.37 from 2.34
  • VIX closed at 16.07 1 day percent change of 2.23%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Oct., est. 7 (prior 6.29)
  • 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
  • 10am: Fed’s Dudley speaks on monetary policy in Mexico
  • 11am: Fed to buy $4.75b-$5.75b notes in 2018-2019 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 3M bills, $30b 6M bills
  • 7:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in New York

GOVERNMENT:

    • House canceled recess to deal with deficit, govt shutdown
    • Supreme Court hears race-based college admissions case
    • FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff speaks at Assn for Demand Response and Smart Grid event, 8:30am
    • SEC Chairwoman Mary Jo White speaks at National Assn of Corporate Directors conf., 8am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Senate deal to raise U.S. debt limit emerges as time runs short
  • Burberry CEO Ahrendts leaves to head Apple retail business
  • Credit card charges, delinquencies to be reported today
  • Ireland return to mkt financing to be decided next month
  • Swiss Re said to consider sale of U.S. life insurance assets
  • Kogas to seek to sell stake in LNG Canada, CEO Jang says
  • AstraZeneca to pay up to $440m for Spirogen Therapies
  • BlackBerry seeks to reassure customers with newspaper ads
  • Spain sells 1-yr bills to yield 0.96%, lowest since April 2010
  • Perricone MD said to be near finalizing deal: WWD
  • Central banks begin gaming out U.S. default before deadline
  • Oct. 17 is start, not finish of debt-limit crisis endgame

AM EARNS:

    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.20
    • Citigroup (C) 8am, $1.04 - Preview
    • Coca-Cola (KO) 7:30am, $0.53 - Preview
    • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) 7am, $0.72
    • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) 7:30am, $0.52 - Preview
    • First Republic Bank (FRC) 7am, $0.76
    • JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) 8:30am, $0.78 - Preview
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 7:45am, $1.32 - Preview
    • Omnicom Group (OMC) 7am, $0.81

PM EARNS:

    • CSX (CSX) 4:01pm, $0.43
    • Intel (INTC) 4:01pm, $0.54 - Preview
    • Linear Technology (LLTC) 5pm, $0.45
    • Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP) 5:18pm, $0.42
    • Yahoo! (YHOO) 4:05pm, $0.33 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Slides to 3-Month Low as Silver Declines on U.S. Optimism
  • Record Thai Rice Hoard Expanding Global Supply Glut: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Declines Amid Debt Talks, Iran Nuclear Negotiations
  • Copper Falls as Dollar Rallies Amid Speculation Deadlock to End
  • Rio Reports Record Iron Ore, Coal Output as China Demand Surges
  • Cocoa Rises as Grindings May Indicate More Demand; Coffee Falls
  • Soybeans Gain for Second Day as Rain Seen Slowing U.S. Harvest
  • U.S. Natural Gas Rises for a Fourth Day on Cold Weather Outlook
  • Kumba Needs New Right to Access Reserve at Biggest Iron-Ore Mine
  • Coal Expected to Take Share From Gas Through 2014, Says EIA
  • De Beers Squeezes Diamond Buyers Who Flip Gems: Chart of the Day
  • China Steel Binge Spurs Record Hiring of Ore Carriers: Freight
  • Uralkali Projects Record Potash Demand in 2014 on 3% to 4% Gain
  • Brent Below $100 Seen on Prospect of Iran Accord: Energy Markets

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5A

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more