prev

Drill Baby, Drill: IEA Report on Energy Demand and the Services Markets

 

The International Energy Agency increased its forecast of global oil consumption by 120,000 barrels per day earlier today.   The Agency's new projection is for 83.3MM barrels per day in demand, which is down 2.9% y-o-y.  This data point is noteworthy for the fact that this is the first time in 10 months that the IEA has raised their oil demand forecast, so signifies an inflection point in demand even if levels are well below y-o-y levels.

Additionally, earlier in the week IEA's head Nobu Tanaka told Reuters that OECD stock levels for oil were at 63 days, but he expected them to be at 57 days by year end.   It is conventional wisdom that that 50 days of forward cover is very bullish for oil prices, 53 days is bullish, 57 days bearish and 60 days very bearish.  While the projected days coverage is not "bullish" per se, it is directionally positive, especially in conjunction with the demand data point above.

In the United States this week, we also had incrementally positive data from the weekly oil report from the Energy Administration.   U.S. crude stockpiles declined by 4.4 million barrels to 361.6 million barrels last week, which was notably higher than the 700,000-barrel consensus decline forecast.  This was largely attributable to lower imports into the U.S., but once again marginally and directionally bullish.

On May 19th, we wrote in note entitled "Are You Down With O-P-E-C? "Yah You Know Me", the following:

"The price of oil appears to be signaling one of two things:  either demand will at some point in the near future accelerate or that there is a geo-political event on the horizon that will reduce supply."

The river cards are starting to be shown and they seem to be that the supply / demand picture in the future will be tighter than today.  We want to be long of oil when the supply / demand picture is getting tighter, just as we want to be long of companies that will report better than expected fundamentals.

No doubt many investors have a psychological block against buying a commodity, stock, or asset that is up as much oil is year-to-date, but another way to potentially play oil's current resurgence and the potential follow through if the market tightens up like recent data points suggest is via the OIH, which is the etf that track Oil Services companies.

In the chart below, we've tracked West Texas Intermediate versus the OIH over a three year period.  Through that period, as of yesterday, the OIH has returned ~-23% and Oil has returned ~-2%.   The OIH has typically been a laggard versus oil, which makes sense fundamentally as higher oil prices should drive increased services activities and pricing power. 

In the three year time period, the OIH has been ahead of oil by almost 30% (mid 2007) in the return race and trailed by almost 40% (late 2008).  Year-to-date, the OIH is trailing, though a sustained oil price at or above these levels will lead to resurgence of services activity and higher prices for the OIH.  One thing we know for sure, if oil continues on its upward projector, we will hear chants of, "Drill Baby, Drill" once again, and that's good for the companies that do the drilling, the services names.

Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director

 

Drill Baby, Drill: IEA Report on Energy Demand and the Services Markets - oih


GOODBYE NASTY?

Claims data today was bullish for stocks

"I will not mince words - this week's 626,000 new jobless claims was a nasty number.....In a perverse way, this is going to ultimately end up as a positive for the US stock market. At this stage, I think the US market needs nasty and socialistic data in order to break the buck. If we break the buck, short sellers get squeezed, and the US market continues to make higher lows versus November's."

-IS THE NASTY GOOD? February 5, 2009

Today's Initial claims number arrived at 601K, 24k lower than the prior week's revised number and 21k below the four week moving average. Since initial claims first rose above 600k in February of this year the S&P 500 has risen by roughly 11%  on declining volatility and volume while the US Dollar index has declined by almost 7%.

As the pace of US job losses moderates (even as the unemployment rate, a lagging indicator, continues to rise) "glass half-full investors" shifting through economic data continue to find more signs of a bottom.  Meanwhile the self inflicted mauling of the US balance sheet continues; a degradation so complete that not only are nations who defaulted on their own sovereign debt just a decade ago now shunning US Treasuries for their reserves, media sources are reporting that the drug cartels of South America have abandoned the Dollar in favor of other currencies and gold as preferred forms of payment. As we have said over and over, a weaker dollar can have the perverse impact of aiding US equities as export industries become more competitive in foreign markets and asset valuations become more attractive for foreign buyers.

Our domestic equity exposure has gone from zero last week to 12% today, and all data continues to support the macro thesis for US stocks that we entered the year with.  As always however, we find a wealth of meaning in the margin -and less than bad is not the same as good for us.

We expect to continue to trade the equity market inside a narrow range for now, and have not quite seen enough to say goodbye to nasty news for stocks just yet.

Andrew Barber

Director

GOODBYE NASTY? - emply1


WEN – Milking the cash flows!

My first two meetings with Roland Smith, CEO of WEN, were extremely positive and I really thought the company was on the right track. The reality of the situation is much different due to Trian influence on the Board.

 

Today, Wendy's/Arby's Group (WEN) and Trian Fund Management, L.P. entered into a renewed services agreement and other "new" agreements. Trian's principals, Nelson Peltz, Peter W. May and Edward P. Garden are on WEN's board and effectively control 22% of WEN.


In addition, we recently learned that WEN also plans to issue $550 million in senior unsecured debt; the proceeds will be used to pay off about $125 million in existing debt and fund strategic initiatives. The key "strategic growth initiatives" include new unit development and acquisitions of other restaurant companies. WEN also suggested that they could return the capital to the stockholders.

 

Given the selfish nature of today's filing, my bet is that Train wants to "MILK" WEN of the cash.


The WEN story is cost cutting story. The new services agreement does not appear to help the company achieve those goals. There is NO REASON for WEN to be paying Trian any fees for their services. Every dollar in cash this company generates should be going to upgrading the assets and improving top line sales. Putting more money in the pockets of people who already have billions only destroys shareholder value.


According to the agreement, WEN will be paying for the following; "consultation and advice in connection with sourcing, evaluating and executing (including, without limitation, preparing financial models and other analyses and reviewing documentation) acquisitions of the capital stock or assets of other quick service restaurant businesses or other related or complementary businesses or assets; consultation and advice with respect to corporate finance and investment banking, including, without limitation, evaluating and executing capital markets and debt financing transactions and advice and assistance in connection with the negotiation of agreements, contracts, documents and instruments related thereto; consultation and advice with respect to strategic initiatives to increase stockholder value, including, without limitation, financial, managerial and operational advice in connection with the quick service restaurant business, including advice with respect to the development and implementation of strategies for improving the operating and financial performance of the Company; consultation and advice in connection with legal matters relating to the foregoing; and such other services related to the foregoing as management of the Company shall reasonably request from time to time."

WEN is paying $1 Million a year for this? Plus, Trian get a fee if WEN makes an acquisition.


What is even worse is the "Liquidation Services Agreement?" Trian Partners is going to help WEN in "liquidation or other disposition of certain investments that are not related to the Company's core restaurant business ("Legacy Assets")." For this privilege, WEN will pay Trian Partners a one-time fee of $900,000 for these services. Furthermore, if the disposed assets are valued in excess of $36.6 million then WEN will pay Trian Partners, in cash, a success fee equal to 10% of the aggregate net proceeds. Lastly, WEN is leasing Trian a plane.


Publically traded companies that are run like private companies make lousy investments for the remaining shareholders!

 

WEN – Milking the cash flows! - wen


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

EXPE CEO PUTS ON THE BREAKS

Another observation corroborating our data dependent view that lodging is not yet in recovery mode:

 

In an interview on CBNC this morning, Expedia's CEO provided another data point on the state of the travel industry.  Dara Khosrowshahi said that business travel remains slow and that Expedia hasn't seen any patterns to indicate there is a recovery in progress.  As a reminder, Expedia is by far the largest online travel agency domestically.  With over $21BN of gross bookings in 2008, Mr. Khosrowshahi certainly has the credentials to comment on these matters.


A Theme You Can’t Ignore

Here's a pretty massive datapoint on one of our key themes for 2H09 - import prices and the subsequent impact on the supply chain.  Import prices for apparel had a huge drop off in the latest reported data -- down 5.85% after last month's down 3.4%.  Last time it was down this much was November 2005 (down 7%) and after that, October 2002 (prolonged period of -6% to -8%). Most notable is that the CPI is still hovering at +1%. Consumer prices up, import prices down...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this is a positive margin event for the apparel retail supply chain.  Thanks McGough... but these datapoints are only for the month of April...I'm already starting to make July 4th barbecue plans.  Yeah... I get that. But this morning we see that unit imports from China are up 15%, and Vietnam are up 10% last month while total imports from all countries globally are down 8%. Translation, total imports are down, so inventories will remain in check. But the countries that are disproportionately gaining share (at an accelerating rate) are the ones that are cutting price. Bottom line: declining imports AND prices is a great setup for margins in 2H. Yet another reason why I find it tough to be bearish.

 

A Theme You Can’t Ignore - 1

 

A Theme You Can’t Ignore - 2


Retail First Look: 6/11/09

 

RETAIL FIRST LOOK
11 JUNE 2009

 

MORNING CALL-OUT

Here's a pretty massive datapoint on one of our key themes for 2H09 - import prices and the subsequent impact on the supply chain.  Import prices for apparel had a huge drop off in the latest reported data -- down 5.85% after last month's down 3.4%.  Last time it was down this much was November 2005 (down 7%) and after that, October 2002 (prolonged period of -6% to -8%). Most notable is that the CPI is still hovering at +1%. Consumer prices up, import prices down...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this is a positive margin event for the apparel retail supply chain.  Thanks McGough... but these datapoints are only for the month of April...I'm already starting to make July 4th barbecue plans.  Yeah... I get that. But this morning we see that unit imports from China are up 15%, and Vietnam are up 10% last month while total imports from all countries globally are down 8%. Translation, total imports are down, so inventories will remain in check. But the countries that are disproportionately gaining share (at an accelerating rate) are the ones that are cutting price. Bottom line: declining imports AND prices is a great setup for margins in 2H. Yet another reason why I find it tough to be bearish.

 

Retail First Look: 6/11/09 - 1

 

Retail First Look: 6/11/09 - 2

 

LEVINE'S LOW DOWN

Some Notable Call Outs

  • Neiman Marcus' F3Q conference call did not offer any sense of a change in momentum in the luxury sector. Weakness persists universally across all geographies and product categories. As a result, management is working to skew the product mix toward lower price points. However, the real key here is traffic generation, which will likely remain under pressure despite increasingly easy comparisons.

 

  • Drama has arisen out the Filene's Basement bankruptcy auction. The court has re-opened the bidding process after what appeared to be a done deal with Men's Wearhouse. This action stems from other bidders suing, claiming the court did not follow proper auction procedure. The auction will resume on Friday with an opening bid in place from Syms and Vornado.

 

  • Weekly NPD data suggests footwear sales continue to erode with trends getting sequentially worse for three weeks in a row. Retailers are holding ASP's up well above last year's levels which indicates promotional activity is quiet. Difficult compares against the stimulus package last year is another reason for softer footwear trends. Sales were negative across all brands except Under Armour, which has positive sales due to its new running shoe launched in February. Converse and Saucony turned negative for the first time in weeks. Vans receives the negative callout for the week with sales declining from +59% to -12.5% over the past three weeks.

 

  • Wednesday marked the "coming out" party for CROX's new CEO, John Duerdon. With the stock up nearly 13% on 3.5x avg. daily volume we can assume that he passed "the test." The next step is executing to plan.

 

  • When asked to address the change investors could expect when Tommy Millner assumes the CEO position at Cabela's in early August from 33 year veteran Dennis Higby, Brian Linneman (COO) remarked that while the philosophical approach is unlikely to change, "clearly he will add a fiscal responsibility that I think we have not perhaps seen in the past." I'd venture to say that with an average store size of 150,000 sq. ft., an improvement should not prove insurmountable.

 

  • Regions in the Southeast, southern California, Las Vegas and Phoenix remain weak according to Dress Barn's CEO, David Jaffe, however, there have been no signs of weakness in Michigan/Ohio yet as expected due to the auto industry shakeup. Nonetheless, DBRN will proceed with expansion plans into those markets with caution as will others.

 

  • LULU reported EPS of $0.09 per share, a penny better than the Street expectation of $0.08. Results were down from last 1Q08 EPS of $0.12. Bottom line, a slightly better quarter but it looks like it cost them on the gross margin line in order to keep inventories clean. Inventory levels are now down 19% y/y; a huge change from being up 33% at the end of 4Q08. Sigma is setting up nicely as we just anniversaried the last difficult gross margin compare.

 

MORNING NEWS (full detail including sources at end of this note)
ZachHammer's overview of items you're unlikely to find in the general press.

  • Apparel shipments from China and Vietnam spiked in April, despite an overall decrease of textile and clothing imports to the U.S.
  • The monthly Port Tracker report releasedby the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight indicates that import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports remained below theone million mark in April and was the third-slowest month in the past five years
  • Retailers in cities across the U.S. reported the economic clouds of the last few months could be parting, but consumers remained focused on necessary purchases instead of luxuries, according to the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book
  • Gap Inc. is accelerating its plans to put the "new" back in Old Navy
  • The Dallas-based Neiman's, once thought impervious to downturns, has been reeling as much as any retailer under the weight of the recession
  • Speaking at the recent Adidas Football Day in Herzogenaurach, Germany, Herbert Hainer, CEO and Chairman of Adidas AG, suggested that the company will "further extend" its position in football (soccer) next year when the World Cup will take place in South Africa
  • Retail sales for all core outdoor stores combined (chain, internet, specialty) grew 2% c
  • Harrods Ltd., Mohamed Al-Fayed's luxury London store, is riding out the economic storm as Middle Eastern and Chinese visitors buy its most expensive Chanel suits and Louis Vuitton bags
  • It was a tough first quarter on the web for Brown Shoe Co. and its Shoes.com e-commerce business
  • NBA Finals has even more viewer ship this year compared to the show down of Celtics Lakers last year
  • Aetrex Worldwide Inc. has formed Aetrex Canada, a new division
  • Iconix Using Romo to Resurrect Starter Brand
  • Cooper Martin, LLC unveils a first in healthcare apparel: an original, innovative line of medical and recovery care clothing that is both high style and high performance
  • Herndon, Va.-based wRatings Corp. released its latest "W Score" report, ranking the most competitive retailers and consumer goods firms from a financial and consumer perspective
  • Top 50 retailer web site with a high broadband connection report for May.
  • Most Interesting Shoe of the Week - The Zaha Hadid for Lacoste footwear

 

RESEARCH EDGE PORTFOLIO: (Comments by Keith McCullough):
WSM, UA

 

06/10/2009 10:05 AM

BUYING WSM $13.51

McGough and Levine put up a solid note on this a few days ago. This company has misunderstood enterprise value and operating leverage. Short int is high. KM

 

06/10/2009 09:56 AM

BUYING UA $23.92

McGough was the bear for years, and now he's the bull who owns this debate. I love being long the short interest here. KM

 

NOTABLE RESEARCH:

Branded Apparel (LIZ, RL, UA, GES): Morgan Stanley upgrades Branded Apparel sector to in-line from cautious.

PVH: Morgan Stanley upgrades Phillips-Van Heusen to Overweight from Equal-weight, price target to $37 from $22.

JNY: Morgan Stanley upgrades Jones Apparel to Overweight from Equal-weight, $14 price target.

WRC: Morgan Stanley downgrades Warnaco to Equal-weight from Overweight, price target to $39 from $23.

 

As noted above, it is extremely difficult to be bearish on this space right now - regardless of missing the first 50% move. Hindsight does not matter.

 

Insider Trading Activity:

 

VFC: Candice Cummings, VP Admin & General Counsel, sold ~9,800 shs roughly 1/3 of her common stock holdings.

FOSL: Tom Kartsotis, Chairman, sold ~27,000 shs under a 10b5-1 plan on base of ~6.5mm shs.

 

MACRO SECTOR VIEW AND TRADING CALL OUTS

Retail First Look: 6/11/09 - 3      

 

MORNING NEWS SUMMARY DETAILS 

Apparel shipments from China and Vietnam spiked in April, despite an overall decrease of textile and clothing imports to the U.S. The Commerce Department's Office of Textiles & Apparel on Wednesday said imports of apparel to the U.S. from China increased 15.5 percent to 524 million square meter equivalents in April compared with a year earlier. Shipments from Vietnam were up 9.6 percent for the month to 121 million SME. Combined shipments of textiles and apparel to the U.S. from all trading partners in April dropped 9.7 percent to 3.62 billion SME. Apparel imports declined 8 percent to 1.52 billion SME, while textile shipments slipped 10.8 percent to 2.09 billion SME. April marked the 12th consecutive monthly decline in year-to-year import comparisons. "It is evident from today's trade data that our global community is facing a difficult economic environment," said U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk. "Now more than ever, we should strengthen, not weaken, our economic ties with the world community, because international trade can and will help drive the world's economic recovery." China's overall shipments of textiles and apparel to the U.S. were dragged down by falling textile figures, the Commerce Department office noted. Combined shipments dropped 1.2 percent to 1.53 billion SME. Countries reporting significant declines in April included Mexico, Honduras and Pakistan. Apparel and textile shipments from Mexico fell 28.3 percent to 176 million SME, Pakistan's combined shipments dropped 12.8 percent to 210 million SME and imports from Honduras plummeted 37.3 percent to 68 million SME. Vietnam continued to show overall growth, increasing its April apparel and textile shipments to the U.S. by 23.2 percent in 12-month comparisons to 160 million SME. South Korea increased textile and apparel shipments 2.6 percent to 131 million SME. Combined textile and apparel imports to the U.S. from the other top 10 suppliers all declined in April. The top five apparel shippers to the U.S. in April were China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Honduras and Indonesia. China was also the top textile supplier, followed by Pakistan, India, South Korea and Mexico. The nation's trade gap widened slightly in April to $29.2 billion from $28.5 billion in March. Most of the increase was driven by oil imports, economists said. "The April trade deficit was little changed from March, but the trade figures were disappointing in the sense that both export and import volumes tumbled again," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.

Pasted from <http://www.wwd.com/business-news/apparel-imports-from-china-and-vietnam-rise-in-april-2164480?navSection=business-news>

 

The monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight indicates that import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports remained below the one million mark in April and was the third-slowest month in the past five years despite a slight improvement over March. "Retailers are still being cautious with their inventory levels in anticipation of slow sales this summer and into the fall," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "The big question is what will happen during the fourth quarter. Our numbers for the fall are an improvement over the summer but are still lower than last year." The report indicates that U.S. ports surveyed handled 990,632 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in April, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 2 percent from March but down 22 percent from April 2008. After February (839, 492 TEU) and March (970,949 TEU), the figure was the third-lowest since the 901,497 seen in February 2004, and marks the 22nd month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent. Volume for May was estimated at 1.03 million TEU, down 21% from a year earlier, and June is forecast at 1.06 million TEU, down 19% from last year. July is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, down 16%; August at 1.14 million TEU, down 17%; and September at 1.12 million TEU, down 18%. October - traditionally the peak of the annual shipping cycle as holiday merchandise flows into stores - is forecast at 1.15 million TEU, down 16%.

Pasted from <http://www.sportsonesource.com/news/article_home.asp?Prod=1&section=5&id=28289>

 

Retailers in cities across the U.S. reported the economic clouds of the last few months could be parting, but consumers remained focused on necessary purchases instead of luxuries, according to the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book released Wednesday. Anecdotal accounts in the report point to a leveling out of sales pressures and in some regions slight improvements, as the economic downturn appeared to moderate. Overall, the 12 districts included in the Beige Book said economic conditions were still difficult, but five districts said the downward trend was slowing and several said their outlook had improved. Retailers in New York, Minneapolis and Dallas reported slightly improved sales in recent weeks. Reports from Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Cleveland, Kansas City and Atlanta were flat or mixed. Several districts said discount retailers continued to perform better than other stores. Sales of luxury goods and discretionary purchases were sluggish in most districts. Retailers in New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco and Kansas City reported consumers were favoring less expensive or discount lines and stores over premium brands and luxury products. In Philadelphia, merchants gave conflicting reports, but generally indicated they do not expect sales to improve during the rest of 2009. The chief executive officer of a large chain store said, "We are a value proposition, so we are benefitting from uncertain economic times." Another executive at a high-fashion chain said, "Luxury is in the tank." Sales in Kansas City remained steady, according to retailers in the district, but had not yet recovered compared to last year. Sales of basic apparel items increased, but demand for luxury goods and home furnishings was still lackluster, according to retailers in the area. Mall traffic was also slower. Department stores and specialty retailers in San Francisco reported weak overall demand. One retailer in New York said price discounting had reared its head again recently. In contrast, most retailers in Boston reported a modest sales increase over the same period a year earlier despite continued pressures on other sectors in the district.The uneven Beige Book results, coupled with a weak Treasury bill auction and a government report of an unexpected drop in crude oil inventories, contributed to a down day for retail stocks and the market in general Wednesday. After two days of small advances, the S&P Retail Index fell 3.10 points, or 0.9 percent, to 335.68, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3 percent to 8,739.02 and the S&P 500 was off 0.4 percent to 939.15.

Pasted from <http://www.wwd.com/business-news/apparel-imports-from-china-and-vietnam-rise-in-april-2164480?navSection=business-news>

 

Gap Inc. is accelerating its plans to put the "new" back in Old Navy. In an effort to recapture lost market share, the company Wednesday said it would remodel 50 Old Navy stores during the third quarter, and would have new models for its namesake chain, Banana Republic and outlet stores by the fall. The repositioning of the value-oriented Old Navy brand through product, pricing and marketing has paid dividends for the company recently. The division's comparable-store sales rose 3 percent in May and 1 percent in April following a flat month in March and, prior to that, 23 consecutive months of declines, highlighted by a 34 percent drop-off last January. Gap chairman and chief executive officer Glenn Murphy told attendees at Piper Jaffray's consumer conference in New York that, through a series of investments, the company since March has "turned the trajectory of the sales that you saw - the path that Old Navy has been on for the better part of five years - by getting the brand refocused, understanding who it's actually going after, what is the customer target." A vital part of Gap's turnaround effort is revamping Old Navy, which hadn't received a makeover since it was founded 15 years ago. "We have a model that was successful for a long time," Murphy said. "We held on for too long. We never really went back and refreshed them and modernized them." Murphy said executives at the firm were "pleased" by results at a new Old Navy prototype rolled out in two California locations. As for Banana, Murphy said the goal was to grow the brand internationally: "We believe there's a city strategy for Banana Republic, which is very important to us as we look at our future international, corporately controlled growth strategy." Murphy's top goal is strengthening Gap's brands in North America to allow them to continue to expand abroad. Growth in the outlet and online operations was also pegged as a priority, with Piperlime.com moving beyond footwear and accessories and into apparel, and new Web sites planned for the Canadian and U.K. markets, to be followed by Japan.

Pasted from <http://www.wwd.com/business-news/apparel-imports-from-china-and-vietnam-rise-in-april-2164480?navSection=business-news>

  

The Dallas-based Neiman's, once thought impervious to downturns, has been reeling as much as any retailer under the weight of the recession. It's been criticized by some for not responding sufficiently to the new consumer psychology after enjoying a long run of unabashed spending by the affluent. However, for the first time, Tansky and his team on Wednesday projected a proactive stance and detailed a recovery plan, citing:

  • Salary and staff cuts at stores and headquarters, including centralizing marketing and fashion office functions to further reduce payroll and create a consistent and focused voice to consumers. Previously, there were separate marketing teams at Neiman's, Bergdorf Goodman and NM Direct. Overall, NMG is operating with 16 percent fewer associates than a year ago.
  • Reducing inventories, with receipts down 25 percent for fall, although they are not expected to be aligned to demand for several seasons, as Neiman's works to flow through fashion products faster than basics.
  • Overall, reducing expenses by $125 million on an annual basis.
  • Creating new types of special events to lure customers. They're often smaller and more intimate, and involve charities and gift card opportunities.
  • Negotiating with developers to possibly postpone store openings, but not this September's opening in The Shops at the Bravern in Bellevue, Wash., a suburb of Seattle. The store will mark Neiman's debut in the Pacific Northwest. "We are scrutinizing all proposed projects with a heightened degree before we commit capital," Tansky said. Stores are planned for Walnut Creek, Calif., and Sarasota, Fla., in fall 2011; San Jose, Calif., in 2012; Princeton, N. J., in 2013, and Oyster Bay, N.Y., where there is no opening date, as the mall there has yet to be built.
  • Trimming store hours at certain locations to better schedule associates for peak traffic hours and away from down times.

Also on Neiman's austerity agenda - bringing prices down via a shift in the merchandising mix toward more midtier pricing, within collections currently carried, without trading down.

Pasted from <http://www.wwd.com/footwear-news/aetrex-forms-canadian-division-2164242?navSection=footwear-news>

 

Speaking at the recent Adidas Football Day in Herzogenaurach, Germany, Herbert Hainer, CEO and Chairman of Adidas AG, suggested that the company will "further extend" its position in football (soccer) next year when the World Cup will take place in South Africa. "We are well positioned to further extend our market leadership in football again next year," commented Hainer. "We start from the same position as for the extremely successful 2006 World Cup. As Official Sponsor, Adidas will supply the Official Ball of the tournament and equip officials, referees, volunteers and ball kids. Additionally we outfit the host team South Africa." The company said its products for the World Cup will be presented in the second half of 2009. According to the most recent independent market surveys, Adidas suggested it is the world's leading football brand, with a market share of more than 34%. The company cited data that in core markets such as Germany and North America, Adidas' football market share was over 50% of the total market. (Sources: NPD Sports Tracking Europe and SportScanINFO).  "This is the very first time a Football World Cup is taking place on the African continent. We will utilise this event to present new, innovative products and to convey the fun and excitement the African people find in football to fans worldwide. The marketing focus will be clearly on digital channels and POS, in order to be able to communicate as interactively and individually as possible," explained Bernd Wahler, Chief Marketing Officer Adidas Sport Performance.

Adidas indicated it expects to generate double-digit sales growth in South Africa in the years to come.

Pasted from <http://www.sportsonesource.com/news/article_home.asp?Prod=1&section=8&id=28288>

 

Retail sales for all core outdoor stores combined (chain, internet, specialty) grew 2% compared to last April, moving from $339 million to $347 million, according to the most recent edition of The Outdoor Industry Association (OIA) Outdoor Topline Report. Sales for the four months of the year totaled $1.4 billion, down 5% from the same period in 2008

Pasted from <http://www.sportsonesource.com/>

 

Harrods Ltd., Mohamed Al-Fayed's luxury London store, is riding out the economic storm as Middle Eastern and Chinese visitors buy its most expensive Chanel suits and Louis Vuitton bags, Managing Director Michael Ward said. "There is not a recession at Harrods," Ward, 53, said in an interview when asked about the sales performance of the 160- year-old department-store. "At the moment, we continue to see the big power-brands doing really very well." Harrods has seen an influx of shoppers from the Middle East, China, India and some former Soviet states, whose currencies have strengthened against the pound, giving them more to spend, Ward said. Sterling has declined 18 percent against China's yuan in the past year, and 17 percent against the Saudi riyal. That's helped offset the shrinking luxury goods market.  "Local shoppers are reining in spending, but as long as you have wealthy tourists coming in, Harrods will benefit," Sandra Halliday, global managing editor at fashion forecaster WGSN said in a telephone interview. "In uncertain times you want the certainty of names people have heard of." Ward declined to disclose specific figures for the closely held retailer, whose store in London's Knightsbridge district sells pink, tweed Chanel suits for 5,000 pounds ($8,007) and Crème de la Mer moisturizer for 930 pounds. The most recent financial report from Harrods showed revenue rose at least 10 percent in the quarter that ended on Aug. 2, 2008. The retailer will not be forced into discounts or extra promotions that U.S. department stores such as Bloomingdale's have used to clear excess inventory, Ward said last week. Harrods will continue to hold two clearance sales a year, he added.

Pasted from <http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601205&sid=awKAJ1hS.HyA>

 

It was a tough first quarter on the web for Brown Shoe Co. and its Shoes.com e-commerce business. For the quarter ended May 2, web sales for Shoes.com decreased by 8.5% to $15 million from $16.4 million in the first quarter of 2008. In comparison, total revenue for Brown Shoe, No. 162 in the Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, declined 2.8% to $538.7 million from $554.5 million in Q1 of 2008. Overall, Shoes.com accounted for 3% of total sales in the first quarter and 29% of revenue for the company's specialty retail business, which posted a decrease in sales of 9.7% to $52.4 million from $58 million in the prior year. Brown Shoe posted a net loss of $7.6 million in the first quarter vs. net income of $7.2 million in Q1 of 2008. Pete Hogan, vice president of e-commerce at Brown Shoe is speaking at the Internet Retailer Conference & Exhibition, June 15-18 in Boston, in a session titled Browser confusion: How to win the battle for web performance.

Pasted from <http://www.internetretailer.com/dailyNews.asp?id=30735>

 

What a disaster that the Orlando Magic beat the Cleveland Cavaliers! Poor David Stern and the NBA! Well, we just got the ratings from the folks at Nielsen and check out this news bulletin: Lakers-Magic is outrating last year's ultimate matchup of the Lakers-Celtics. The first three games of this year's NBA finals have averaged 13,797,000 viewers per game. Last year's first three games had an average viewership of 13,791,000.

Pasted from <http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837629>

 

Aetrex Worldwide Inc. has formed Aetrex Canada, a new division. The move will enable the Teaneck, N.J.-based company to provide retailers there with better prices and faster delivery. "We now have a full-time team dedicated to the Canadian market," CEO Larry Schwartz said in a company statement. "This will provide easier access to all our marketing programs, including our patented iStep technology, which is proven to help drive revenue by increasing footwear and orthotic sales." Additionally, through its partnership with UPS' NRI division, all orders will have free freight and duties, guaranteed through the end of the year.

Pasted from <http://www.wwd.com/footwear-news/aetrex-forms-canadian-division-2164242?navSection=footwear-news>

 

Iconix Using Romo to Resurrect Starter Brand - Tony Romo is one of the most marketable players in the NFL. But he doesn't have a shoe and apparel deal with Adidas, Reebok or Nike.  Last year, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback signed one of the league's most lucrative deals to represent Starter, which hasn't had any official designation with the NFL since the Starter Corporation filed for bankruptcy 10 years ago. Since then, the brand -- which was founded in 1971 -- has been tossed around. It was purchased by Nike for a reported $43 million in August 2004. Three years later, Nike sold it to Iconix, a company whose brands include Joe Boxer, Danskin and Candie's, for $60 million. Iconix, whose shares are up 58 percent year-to-date, relaunched the brand in January and is now hoping Romo can help bring the brand back to its heyday, a time Romo fondly remembers. "I remember when we were growing up Starter was real big," Romo told us. "We'd love those pullover jackets. Now that they're starting to get back into the game, I'm glad I'm a part of what they want to do. It's exciting to me that it's not the traditional deal that everyone else has." Without being able to use any Cowboys logos, Iconix is selling plenty of blue and white and is using Romo in its advertising and on point of purchase materials to get attention. One of the reasons why a generic Romo can still work well is because Starter has a direct-to-retail license agreement with Wal-Mart. So Romo stands out in the stores even if he's called "Dallas QB." Romo also says the value price point appeals to him. "When I was growing up, my family shopped at Wal-Mart," Romo said. "I wasn't buying a pair of Air Jordans every year." Starter has made on-field shoes for Romo, even though he's not allowed to show the Starter star logo. But that doesn't mean all is lost. Romo says he wears Starter products off the field. Why does that matter? Because, as Romo knows, when you're dating Jessica Simpson, candid photos of you appear in magazines routinely. That's a value added that Starter couldn't have found with any other sports figure in the world.

Pasted from <http://www.cnbc.com/id/31187249>

 

Cooper Martin, LLC unveils a first in healthcare apparel: an original, innovative line of medical and recovery care clothing that is both high style and high performance.  Featuring ACTIVE RECOVERY TECHNOLOGY(TM), Cooper Martin clothing is ideal for those undergoing rehabilitation, recovering from an injury or orthopedic surgery, or struggling with pain, disability or limited mobility. "Currently those with limited mobility, whether temporary or permanent,have no options for easy-access, adaptive clothing that marry function,comfort and style," says Sarah Lindholm, CEO and Founder of Cooper Martin. "Individuals are forced to choose among traditional active wear, sweatpants, scrubs, or oversized clothing, which are all unflattering, non-functional and most often inappropriate to wear outside of the house. Cooper Martin's fresh product line of reliable classic khakis for men and fashionable wide-leg, floor skimming black pants for women is discreetly modified with hidden zippers, Velcro and ergonomic  construction, making dressing easier without sacrificing on style." Cooper Martin clothing looks and feels like everyday favorites but incorporates unique patent-pending features that make dressing with limited mobility less frustrating and less painful. Seamlessly intertwining innovation with ingenuity, Cooper Martin's ACTIVE RECOVERY TECHNOLOGYTM  combines a series of hidden zippers and intricate waistband construction to facilitate easy on and easy off dressing. Cooper Martin's patent pending

 


Active Zipper Lock(TM), a revolutionary zipper closure system, is crafted of durable, transparent PVC rubber and effortlessly locks each full-length hidden zipper into place at the waistband ensuring peace of mind. Using 100% organic cotton and only the highest quality zippers and trims, all styles are discreetly modified to allow for easy on and off.
Pasted from <http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=APPSEAR.story&STORY=/www/story/06-08-2009/0005040189&EDATE=MON+Jun+08+2009,+11:01+AM>

 

Herndon, Va.-based wRatings Corp., an independent stock research firm, has released its latest "W Score" report, ranking the most competitive retailers and consumer goods firms from a financial and consumer perspective. "Investors are always wondering who is going to be doing well next," especially in a recession, said Gary Williams, chief executive officer. "This particular study is really a look at retailers from two typically disparate sources: How well they've been generating cash, and how well they are meeting consumers' expectations." Each quarter, wRatings polls consumers and then blends a company's historical economic performance with the consumer feedback. A W Score of 100 is the highest possible. Here are the most competitive retailers ranked by W Scores, which incorporates economic performance and consumer satisfaction:

  • 1COACH - W Score (out of 100) 92.7
    "This brand tends to be enormously in touch with its customers," said Williams of wRatings. "Since they have more upscale brand offerings, they're trying to provide a more affordable product during the recession. This is working for them. These guys know how to make investments pay off. It's a very well-managed company. The key to their success: they track their customers really well." WWD reported at the end of April that Coach was continuing to modify its pricing paradigm to better cater to a wary consumer. "For the next quarter or two, sales may decline on a year-over-year basis as the firm introduces new collections with an updated, reduced price range," WWD noted. For the three months ended March 28, sales dipped by 0.6 percent to $740 million from $744.5 million.

 

  • 2JOS. A. BANK CLOTHIERS - W Score Brian Tunick of J.P. Morgan told WWD at the end of April that the men's wear retailer's promotional cadence - particularly on tailored clothing - is giving it a competitive advantage. Jos. A. Bank has been running buy-one-get-two-free suit promotions, among others. "They're promotional by plan," another analyst told WWD. The chain created a program this spring that offered a refund to customers who bought a suit during its sale between March 16 and April 9 and then lost their job. Customers have to show proof that a job was lost between April 16 and July 1 to get the refund, and Jos. A. Bank will pay up to $199. "Whenever you offer a guarantee like this, you're going to have a loyal following," Williams said. "This is one of the biggest marketing strategies in 2009."

 

  • 3AEROPOSTALE - W Score (out of 100) 90.7
    "Aéropostale has been building on an already well-defined customer base, which is a sign of their competitive strength," Williams said. The New York-based teen brand has been pushing promotions, such as its BOGO (Buy One Get One free) program, which was extended last month from tank tops and camis to include shorts and polos. Aéropostale cut the ribbon on its first overseas store in March, giving the retailer a foothold in Dubai and the beginning of what is expected to be a broader Middle East expansion. Julian Geiger, Aéropostale's chairman and ceo, told WWD, "This new venture in Dubai will enable us to introduce the Aéropostale brand in new markets overseas and lay the groundwork for what we believe can be a greater expansion of the brand globally."

 

  • 4AMAZON.COM (GENERAL SITE) - W Score (out of 100) 88.1
    Williams said because of the Seattle-based online retailer's investments in programs, such as its "1-Click ordering" process, "the brand's competitiveness is strong....From a consumer standpoint, they have done extremely well for several years now. The brand listens to its customers, and those customers have been satisfied. The more a brand simplifies these types of programs for their customers, the better off you'll be." Amazon was a winner in the e-tail world over the holidays: The site reported its best holiday season in 14 years in business. The company continued to do well this quarter, posting net income of $177 million on net sales of $4.89 billion, an increase of 24 percent and 18 percent, respectively, compared with the same quarter last year.

 

  • 5TIMBERLAND - W Score (out of 100) 87.4
    The Stratham, N.H.-based company will expand its higher-priced Timberland Boot Co. line with women's looks for fall 2009, WWD's sister publication, Footwear News, reported last month. "Hitting stores in September, the women's line will consist of 12 styles of boots and shoes incorporating organic canvas, Horween leathers and fabric details and ribbons," FN said. The styles will range in price from $170 to $340 and will be available at timberland.com, as well as at selected retailers worldwide. "This brand has such a loyal following already, there's no doubt," Williams said. "People are hiking, running and biking more during the recession, and the brand has been profiting from this trend."

 

  • 6GUESS - W Score (out of 100) 87.0
    This Los Angeles-based apparel line made its name in the Eighties with the introduction of its slim-fit, zippered, stone-washed Marilyn jean design. Now Guess plans on tailoring its denim assortment to those shoppers looking for greater value from premium denim. Guess will increase the percentage of denim in company stores to 40 percent from 30 percent, "space that will be freed up as the company replaces tailored jackets, pants and skirts, as well as fancy shirts and dresses," WWD said last month. However, dresses will still appear in holiday collections. "The company's focus is now on a midtier price zone between $108 and $148, which co-founder Paul Marciano and [vice president of design John] Landis believe will enable Guess to grab market share from other labels," WWD noted.

 

  • 7AMAZON.COM (BOOKS ONLY) - W Score (out of 100) 86.9
    The company's innovation in the book category has been seen not just with its successful book sales, but also with the introduction of its own proprietary line of Kindle readers. WWD said last month that fiscal 2008 saw net income rise 9 percent to $225 million, "some of which was due to the popularity of the Kindle, Amazon's e-book reader." Gross margin was 20.66 percent. The site is offering savings of as much as 45 percent on certain bestsellers, including "New Moon" (book two of the "Twilight" series) by Stephenie Meyer, and the nonfiction title "Renegade: The Making of a President" by Richard Wolffe.

 

  • 8TJ MAXX - W Score (out of 100) 85.3
    "TJ Maxx is a smart, well-positioned company - especially during the recession - because it's got the oversupply of brands, and they have great deals that customers of all income levels can take advantage of," Williams said. Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, told WWD in March, "The fact that it's got a cool factor to its pieces, which never stay in the store for long, gives consumers even more reason to shop there." Parent TJX Cos. Inc.'s president and chief executive officer, Carol Meyrowitz, told the annual shareholders meeting last week, "For me, it's still about one thing: execution." Meyrowitz said the company could be positioned to gain share in a shrinking retail sector this year.

 

  • 9ABERCROMBIE & FITCH - W Score (out of 100) 84.6
    "While their economic performance has been struggling, from the consumer and branding standpoint, they're still going strong," Williams said. However, A&F has been confronted by fashion missteps and weakened by high prices in a fiercely promotional market. The New Albany, Ohio-based firm reported a net loss of $26.8 million, or 31 cents a diluted share, for the period ended May 2. The loss came against a profit of $62.1 million, or 69 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Sales slid 23.5 percent, to $612.1 million from $800.2 million, and same-store sales contracted 24 percent. "We've spent years building our brands to compete on quality, aspiration and a unique store experience, not on price," chairman and ceo Mike Jeffries said on the company earnings call.

 

  • 10DSW SHOES - W Score (out of 100) 81.8
    "The assortment that this brand is offering is still clearly resonating with consumers," Williams said. "While economic performance is down for the company, we're still seeing a spike from consumer interest in the brand." Columbus, Ohio-based DSW Inc. reported net income of $7.1 million, or 16 cents a diluted share, for the first quarter ended May 2, compared with a profit of $10.3 million, or 23 cents, in the year-ago period. The firm's new president and ceo, Michael MacDonald, outlined opportunities to improve sales trends during a conference call with analysts, including improved store formats, implementing a size system for customers and further developing DSW's Web site. MacDonald singled out the men's and accessories businesses as possible growth avenues.

Pasted from <http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/the-most-competitive-retailers-2164328?navSection=retail-news>

 

Web shoppers could access a top 50 retailer web site with a high broadband connection an average of 98.46% of the time in May. That availability compares with an average of 94.34% for a low broadband connection and 74.64% for dial-up, says Gomez Inc. The web retailer with the best high broadband availability rate in May was ColdwaterCreek.com at 99.73%, followed by TigerDirect.com at 99.63%, and Chadwicks.com and Zappos.com at 99.57%. ColdwaterCreek.com also had the most consistent low broadband and dial-up availability in May at 97.57% and 95.52%, respectively.

Pasted from <http://www.internetretailer.com/dailyNews.asp?id=30737>

 

Most Interesting Shoe of the Week - The Zaha Hadid for Lacoste footwear collaboration began with a digitized interpretation of the iconic crocodile logo. Hadid's research team then used this as a basis to explore a series of surfaces with repeated patterns. 'The design expression behind the collaboration with Lacoste footwear allows the evolution of dynamic fluid grids,' explains Hadid. 'When wrapped around the shape of a foot, these expand and contract to negotiate and adapt to the body ergonomically. In doing so a landscape emerges, undulating and radiating as it merges seamlessly with the body.' To achieve this tactile landscape effect, Zaha's team designed a series of metal plates depicting the desired wave pattern. These plates were subsequently utilised to apply a combination of heat embossing and debossing techniques to the calf leather, thus rendering the topography in relief. The effect is visible on the uppers, curving around the top of the toe, and on the exterior fascia of each shoe. A similar pattern is replicated on the sole of the shoe, crafted of moulded rubber, which is designed to reflect points at which the foot naturally exerts pressure. The heel itself is the minimum depth possible in footwear construction, emphasising the slender and streamlined profile of the design.  The shoes also feature the unique Zaha Hadid for Lacoste logo, visibly wrapped around the side of the heel and on the in-sock. The sleek and sophisticated black box which packages the product also bears an embossed version of the same logo. The shoes are unisex in design; the women's are available in black and purple, whilst the men's come in black and navy. A limited-edition boot version of the Zaha Hadid for LACOSTE shoe will be available exclusively at such high-end boutiques as Colette in Paris, Dover Street Market in London and 10 Corso Como in Milan in July 2009 as a preview. The main shoe line will be appearing in stores worldwide from September 2009. This exclusive collaboration will be highlighted in store by a suite of bespoke material designed to compliment and enhance the themes and colours of the project.

Pasted from <http://www.sneakerfreaker.com/sneaker-releases/Zaha-Hadid-For-Lacoste/12/>

 


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

next