THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 9, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 12 points or 0.27% downside to 1651 and 0.46% upside to 1663.                                  

                                                                                             

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.25 from 2.25
  • VIX  closed at 20.34 1 day percent change of 4.79%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Oct. 4 (prior -0.4%)
  • 10am: Fed’s Evans speaks on monetary policy in Washington
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 12pm: Fed’s Lockhart appears with Felipe Bulnes, Chilean ambassador to U.S., at World Affairs Council of Atlanta
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $21b 10Y notes in reopening
  • 2pm: Fed releases minutes from Sept. 17-18 FOMC Meeting
  • 6pm: ECB’s Draghi speaks in Cambridge, Mass.

GOVERNMENT:

    • 8:30am: IMF Dir. of Monetary and Capital Markets Jose Vinals holds briefing on Global Financial Stability Report
    • 9am: World Bank President Jim Yong Kim gives press conference
    • 9:30am: House Oversight and Government Reform Committee holds hearing on IRS’s role in implementing Obamacare
    • 10am: Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds hearing on housing finance reform
    • 10:30am: Veterans Affairs Sec. Eric Shinseki testifies on effect of govt shutdown on VA benefits, services to veterans at House Veterans’ Affairs Cmte hearing
    • Noon: Financial Accounting Standards Board and International Accounting Standards Board hold public roundtable meeting on revised exposure drafts on leases
    • 1pm: House Small Business Committee holds hearing on effects of Obamacare on definitions of full-time employee with regard to small businesses

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Yellen to be named by Obama as 1st female Fed chairman
  • Obama seeks post-debt deal talks as senate republicans seem open
  • Newcrest to replace CEO, chairman after asset writedown
  • Wal-Mart to buy Bharti’s stake in India retail venture
  • Jos. A. Bank offers to buy Men’s Wearhouse for $2.3b
  • SAC’s Cohen is said to face $1.8b cost to settle fraud charges
  • AT&T said to be close to wireless tower sale to Crown Castle
  • RBS said to hand over FX trader’s messages to U.K. regulator
  • Apple seeks China Mobile 3G, 4G knowledge in Beijing engineer ad
  • Apple said to debut new IPads at Oct. 22 event
  • J.P. Morgan said planning to cull business clients: WSJ
  • South Korea suspends some U.S. beef imports on additive: WSJ
  • Carlyle joins bid for Li Ka-Shing’s Parknshop chain: WSJ

EARNINGS:

    • Family Dollar Stores (FDO) 7am, $0.84 - Preview
    • Fastenal (FAST) 6:50am, $0.41 - Preview
    • Helen of Troy (HELE) 4:01pm, $0.72
    • Jean Coutu Group (PJC/A CN) 7am, C$0.25
    • RPM International (RPM) 7am, $0.71

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Tin Smelters in Indonesia Furlough Staff as Rule Curbs Trade
  • Codelco Spends to Back View Copper Set for Rebound: Commodities
  • Commodity Prices Wrong as Often as 27% of the Time for Traders
  • Copper Falls for Third Day Amid Deadlock Over U.S. Debt Ceiling
  • Soybeans Fall for Second Day as Weather Aids Harvest in U.S.
  • Gold Drops in London Trading as Investors Assess Stimulus, Debt
  • Robusta Coffee Falls Before Record Vietnamese Crop; Cocoa Rises
  • WTI Crude Oil Fluctuates as U.S. Debt Limit Impasse Continues
  • Alcoa Earnings Top Estimates After Gains at Aerospace Segment
  • Rebar Closes Near 3-Month Low as IMF Cuts China Growth Outlook
  • Metal Prices Unresponsive to Economic Surprise Index Surge
  • Captain Phillips’s Ship Helmed by Tom Hanks at Risk in Shutdown
  • Shale Drillers Offered Water Cheaper Than U.K. Residents: Energy
  • Gold Imports by India Slump as Curbs Reduce Demand for Jewelry

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


SECTOR SPOTLIGHT | Live Q&A with Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Join us for this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more