+21% growth bested pre and end of the month Street projections but September was even better than the headline
September was a darn fine month for the Macau operators. We knew that. What we didn't know was that Mass would be up 36% YoY and Rolling Chip Volume would also be up double digits. VIP hold percentage was actually a little below normal and last year. We will try, but it’s hard to poke many holes in this fabulous month. Even slots were up 13%. For October, we’re thinking that the high end of our GGR forecast of 20-25% might be the right number. As a market share gainer, LVS remains our favorite Macau play.
General / Market
- Compared to our detailed top down forecast, VIP volumes came in a lot better, mass volumes were a little better while slots were a little weaker.
- Raw hold for TTM declined for the first time in a while to 3.19% from 3.21%. Trailing 24M remained at 3.18% while historical stayed at 3.12%
- Even slots participated, posting the 3rd highest monthly YoY growth of the year
- LVS properties exhibited the best market growth in VIP and slots. MPEL had the best growth in Mass, and SJM & MGM bested LVS for VIP RC growth
- VIP hold % was slightly below normal but well above last year - 2.80% vs. 2.26%
- The LVS properties grew faster than the market in all facets of the business: Mass, Junket volume, VIP volume, and slots
- GGR share dipped from July and August but that was hold related; junket volume share was the 2ndhighest ever for the company
- Mass share was the lowest in 6 months
- Junket volume share was the 2nd highest since Jan 2010.
- Lowest growth of 6 concessionaires
- Worst Mass growth
- Worst RC volume growth
- Held well above normal on Rolling Chip but only a little higher than last September’s hold
- Rolling Chip share was one of the lowest ever at 11.3%, down 110bps sequentially - 70bps below the all-time low of 10.6% in September 2007, and 70bps and 50bps below their 6M average and TTM average share, respectively
- Mass share increased 110bps sequentially but was in-line with the 6 month and TTM average
- Held high but had a difficult YoY comp
- Best Mass growth of the 6 concessionaires, offset by the worst VIP growth driven by YoY declines in RC volume at Altira
- Mass revenue share was noticeably below recent trend - 60bps below the 6M and 20bps below TTM trailing average. Although in MPEL’s defense, this kind of dip (1.3%) isn’t unusual. Interestingly we have seen dips in MPEL’s mass share with rebounds in October since 2008
- 1.0% decline April with a 1.5% bounce back in May
- 2.2% decline in Jan with a 2.6% jump in Feb
- 1.8% decline in Sept 2012 with a 1.1% increase in October 2012
- While up sequentially, junket volume share continues to trend lower compared to the 6 and 12 month trailing average
- We are becoming increasingly concerned with share losses in mass and Junket volume
- MPEL gained the most slot market share this month and has remained the distant 2nd in terms of market share behind LVS in this category for 4 consecutive months and for 11 of the last 14 months
- Held well below normal on junkets play and YoY comparisons were exasperated by high hold comparisons last September
- MGM’s junket volumes took the top prize for growth in September and at 49% marketed the properties’ best growth rate in 2 years.
- At 12%, Junket RC also set a record for all-time high market share
- Mass growth at 22% decelerated from the prior 6M and 12M TTM rates of 33% and 31, respectively
- Hold was normal but ahead of last year’s September
- Galaxy was the largest MoM market share gainer, but market share was in-line with their trailing 6M and 12M average
- YoY GGR grew 24% YoY, the 2nd highest in the market
- Galaxy’s slot growth went negative for the first time in 32 months
YOY TABLE OBSERVATIONS
Total table revenue grew 21% YoY. Mass market maintained its high growth at 36%. VIP volume rose 19% while VIP revenue gained 16%.
LVS led the market in table win at +51%. Mass revs soared 51% while VIP RC grew 23%. Including direct play, we estimate that LVS held at 2.8% in September, higher than last September's 2.3%, assuming direct play of 17% vs. 22% last year.
- Sands fell 16%, similar performance to August 2013
- Mass grew 16%
- VIP revenue fell 34%, while RC fell 37%
- Sands held at 3.3% vs 3.3% in the same period last year. We assume 10% direct play in September 2013 vs 8% in September 2013.
- Venetian grew 42%
- Mass increased 29%
- VIP revenue grew 57%, reversing two months of declines
- Junket VIP RC gained 40%
- Assuming 28% direct play, hold was 3.1% compared to 2.6% in September 2012, assuming 30% direct play
- Four Seasons gained 68%, best performance since September 2012
- Mass revenue soared almost 146% on a comp of -27%
- VIP revenue grew 52% and junket RC rose 14%. September hold (assuming 15% direct play) was 2.5% vs 1.85% in September 2012 when direct play was 16%.
- Sands Cotai Central rocketed 157% higher for the 2nd consecutive month
- Mass jumped 126%
- VIP revenues grew 184%
- Junket RC gained 61%
- If we assume that direct play was 10%, hold would have been 2.6% vs 1.4% in September 2012 when direct play was 9%.
MPEL gained 18% in table revenues. Mass growth continued to excel at 71% while VIP growth was 4%. We estimate that MPEL held at 3.1% vs 3.2% last September. Estimated direct play was 11%, in-line with last year, but up sequentially.
- Altira table revenues fell 8%, 1st decline since Feb 2013
- VIP revs dropped 11%
- VIP RC fell 6%
- Mass gained 25%
- We estimate that hold was 3.3%, compared to 3.3% in the prior year
- CoD table revenues grew 30% YoY
- Mass increased 77%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
- VIP win grew 12%, while RC grew 15%
- Assuming a 16% direct play level, hold was 3.0% in September compared to 3.1% last year (assuming 15% direct play)
Wynn table revenues grew 8%
- VIP revenues and RC both grew 7%
- Wynn held at 3.4% (assuming direct play of 8%) vs 3.3% last September (assuming direct play of 10%)
- Mass revenues gained 15%
MGM table revenues grew 19%
- We estimate that hold was 2.6% adjusted for direct play of 7% vs hold of 3.1% last year assuming 8% direct play
- VIP RC and Mass grew 49% and 22%, respectively
Galaxy table revenues grew 24%. VIP revenues gained 19% while RC volumes grew 10%. On the bright side, Mass growth was strong at 42%. Hold was 3.1% in September 2013 vs. 3.1% last year.
- Starworld table revenues gained 16%
- Mass soared 70%
- VIP gained 8%.
- Junket RC rose 17%
- Hold was 2.7% vs 3.0% last year
- Galaxy Macau's table revenues jumped 27%
- Mass had another great month at 44% growth
- VIP gained 21%
- Hold was 3.5% vs 3.2% last September
Total table revenue grew 11%, with mass and VIP growth of 20% and 6%, respectively. RC volume gained 25%. SJM held at 2.6% vs 3.1% last year.
SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE - September relative to August (property specific details are for table share while company-wide statistics are calculated on total GGR, including slots):
Market share slipped 70bps to 22.0%. September’s share is above its 6-month average of 21.8% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%.
- Sands' share gained 60bps to 3.2%. For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M average share was 3.1%.
- Mass share gained 50bps to 5.0%
- VIP rev share gained 70bps to 2.3%
- RC share lost 10bps to 1.9%
- Venetian’s share was unchanged at 8.6%. 2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.4%.
- Mass share decreased 150bps to 13.0%
- VIP share increased 110bps to 6.6%
- Junket RC share gained 50bps to 4.7%
- FS gained lost 70bps to 3.1%. This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.4%
- VIP fell 110bps to 3.4%
- Mass share was unchanged at 2.4%
- Junket RC was unchanged at 3.5%
- Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 60bps to 6.7%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 6.6%.
- Mass share fell 60bps to 8.6%
- VIP share fell 70bps to 5.7%
- Junket RC share gained 30bps to 6.3%, its highest share ever
MPEL lost 60bps in share in September to 13.8%. Its 6 month trailing share is 14.4% and their 2012 share was 13.5%.
- Altira’s share gained 10bps to 3.4%, below its 6 month trailing share of 3.6% and 2012 share of 3.9%
- Mass share rose 10bps to 1.2%
- VIP was unchanged at 4.4%
- VIP RC share fell 60bps to 4.1%
- CoD’s share lost 80bps to 10.3%, above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.7%, respectively.
- Mass market share lost 130bps to 11.6%
- VIP share lost 50bps to 9.6%
- RC share gained 110bps to 8.4%
Wynn GGR share was 11.4%, down 20bps MoM. 2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 10.8%.
- Mass share jumped 110bps to 7.4%
- VIP share lost 90bps to 13.4%
- Junket RC share dropped 110bps to 11.3%
MGM’s market share lost 70bps to 9.6%, above its 6M and 2012 average of 10%
- Mass share was flat at 6.9%
- VIP share fell 120bps to 10.6%
- Junket RC gained 40bps to 12.0%
Galaxy's share gained 130bps to 18.4%, below its 2012 average and 6-month average share of 19.0% and 18.5%, respectively
- Galaxy Macau share was unchanged at 10.7%
- Mass share fell 60bps to 9.7%
- VIP share rose 30bps to 11.2%
- RC share lost 40bps to 9.9%
- Starworld share gained 120bps to 6.7%
- Mass share gained 70bps to 3.9%
- VIP share gained 140bps to 8.1%
- RC share slipped 10bps to 9.2%
SJM share gained 80bps to 24.7%, below their 2012 average of 26.7% but back above their 6M trailing average of 24.4%
- Mass market shares jumped 170bps to 28.2%, the biggest gainer in the market
- VIP share gained 50bps to 23.9%
- Junket RC share rose 10bps to 28.3%
Slot revenue grew 13% YoY to US$136MM in September
- LVS had the best YoY growth at 42% to $47MM
- MPEL gained 13% to $26MM
- MGM gained 7% to $20mm
- WYNN lost 3% to $15MM
- GALAXY lost 6% to $15MM
- SJM had the worst YoY slot performance for the 3rd consecutive month, -8% to $13MM