European Banking Monitor: Stable for Now

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

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European Financial CDS - EU bank swaps tightened further on the week. Spanish, Italian and French banks all came in notably. On average, swaps tightened by 10 bps last week and are lower by 27 bps, on average, vs the prior month. One of the few EU Financials that posted deterioration was Sberbank of Russia, which saw swaps widen by 14 bps WoW.

 

European Banking Monitor: Stable for Now - zz. banks

 

Sovereign CDS – The real trade here remains shorting the US and being long the PIIGS. US Swaps widened 10 bps (+31%) again last week bringing the level to 41 bps. The M/M change has risen to +19 bps (+85%). For reference, US swaps peaked at 64 bps in late-July 2011, the last time the US Govt budget process was in total dysfunction. Meanwhile, Italian, Spanish, Portguese and Irish swaps were all notably tighter on the week.

 

European Banking Monitor: Stable for Now - zz.sov1

 

European Banking Monitor: Stable for Now - zz. sov2

 

European Banking Monitor: Stable for Now - zz.sov3

 

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bp to 14 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 


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