TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 3, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or 0.76% downside to 1681 and 0.13% upside to 1696.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.32 from 2.30
- VIX closed at 16.6 1 day percent change of 6.82%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Sept. (prior 56.5%)
- 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Oct. (prior 51.1)
- 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Sept. 28, est. 315k (pr 305k)
- 8:30am: Continuing Claims, Sept. 20 (prior 2.800m)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Sept. 29 (prior -28.1)
- 10am: ISM Non-Manuf Index, Sept., est. 57 (prior 58.6)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 11am: U.S. announces plans for 3Y note auction on Oct. 8, 10Y notes on Oct. 9, 30Y bonds on Oct. 10
- 11am: Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2043 sector
- 11am: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Diego
- 12:30pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in Dallas
- 1pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on labor market in Atlanta
- 1:30pm: Fed’s Powell speaks on banking in St. Louis
- 5:30pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Little Rock, Ark.
GOVERNMENT:
- Partial U.S. govt shutdown enters 3rd day
- IMF’s Christine Lagarde speaks on global economy
- SEC Commissioner Daniel Gallagher speaks about his agency at the Security Traders Association Market Structure Conf. 3:15pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- White House meeting fails to end stalemate that led to shutdown
- Eco releases to include claims today, no payrolls tmw
- Frustrated Republicans urge Boehner to find deal to end shutdown
- Goldman said to make $1.5m error in Ford bond issue
- U.S. holiday sales may rise 3.9% as budget fight curbs sentiment
- Pershing’s Ackman moves to soften risk on Herbalife pyramid bet
- Draghi said to task ECB panel to mull bank liquidity options
- China services index rises to 6-month high
- BP wins review of challenged payouts to Gulf spill victims
- Google seen by U.S. risking security if data release is allowed
- Mark Cuban to defend himself on stand in SEC’s insider trial
- Spain sells 10-yr bonds to yield 4.269%, lowest since Sept. ’10
- Google buys gesture recognition startup Flutter: AllTHingsD
- Zale says Golden Gate Capital may sell 25% stake: WSJ
- Eurozone Aug. retail sales up 0.7% M/m; est. up 0.2% M/m
- United Technologies sees 5k jobs at jeopardy in U.S. shutdown
EARNINGS:
- Constellation Brands (STZ) 7:30am, $0.88
- International Speedway (ISCA) 7:30am, $(0.01)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Malaysia Starts Gold Futures Trade as Investor Demand Grows
- Rio Replacing Train Drivers Paid Like U.S. Surgeons: Commodities
- WTI Crude Declines on Concern U.S. Shutdown May Curb Fuel Demand
- Gold Falls on Signs of Slowing Demand in China; Palladium Drops
- Copper Declines as U.S. Government Shutdown Enters Third Day
- Wheat Rises as Rain Slows Winter Planting From Ukraine to Russia
- Sugar Falls in New York for First Time This Week; Cocoa Climbs
- BHP Sees Robust Commodity Demand Growth as China Urbanizes
- Iron Ore Exports From Port Hedland Climb as China Purchases More
- World Food Prices Drop to Lowest in Three Years on Grain Slide
- Saudi Aramco Set to Narrow Light-Heavy Price Spread: Asia Crude
- Europe Faces Winter Gas Squeeze Even With Faster Stores Refill
- Gold Double Bottom Signals Rally to $1,425: Technical Analysis
- Russia’s VTB Capital May Expand in Base Metals Trading Next Year
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team