No September slump for domestic manufacturing with the ISM Mfg data - the first (and arguably most impactful) private sector release of the month – strengthening for a 4th consecutive month. The Composite index advanced to 56.2, New Orders remained north of 60 and the Employment and Backlog components both improved sequentially.
Across each of the five sub-components of the index, the TREND remains one of improvement with the trailing 3M/6M/12M averages all advancing in the latest month.
For now, strength across the balance of domestic macro metrics continues to belie the extraordinary, dovish policy lean out of the Fed while markets and main street continue to largely ignore the latest iteration of fabricated brinksmanship out of the beltway.
With both equities and yields advancing and gold rolling over in the wake of this morning’s ISM and Markit PMI strength, fundamentals appear to be prevailing as the principal market driver here. Let's hope that continues.
Economic Gravity 1, Government 0 to start October.
Christian B. Drake