THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 24, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 49 points or 1.22% downside to 1681 and 1.65% upside to 1730.           

                                                                                                                    

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.36 from 2.37
  • VIX  closed at 14.31 1 day percent change of 9.07%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
  • 9am: S&P/CS Home Price Ix 20 City M/m, July, est. 0.8%
  • 9am: S&P/CS Y/y, July, est. 12.4% (prior 12.07%)
  • 9am: S&P/CS Home Price Index, July, est. 162.69 (pr 159.54)
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index M/m, July, est 0.8% (prior 0.7%)
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Pianalto speaks in Chicago
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manuf Index, Sept., est. 11 (prior 14)
  • 10am: Conference Board Consumer Conf Index, Sept., est. 80
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2043 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $33b 2Y notes
  • 1pm: Fed’s George speaks in Chicago
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama to speak at UN 9:30am, Clinton Global Initiative 4pm
    • Insurance industry executives discuss Medicare funding, expansion of Medicaid, Oct. 1 debut of insurance markets at conf. sponsored by AHIP, 9am
    • U.S. Postal Service’s board of governors begin 2-day closed meeting to discuss increasing prices
    • Obama enlists Bill Clinton in campaigning for health-care law

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Chrysler files for IPO as Fiat seeks deal to merge cos.
  • Financing for Blackberry bid by Fairfax questioned
  • Dell said to work w/AlixPartners on post-LBO turnaround
  • KKR, Sycamore may bid on Jones Group as soon as this week: NYP
  • South Korea fails to choose winner in $7.7b fighter deal
  • JPMorgan Chase said to be sued over Libor w/12 other banks
  • Telefonica reaches deal to increase stake in Telecom Italia
  • NYSE said to plan rule change for voiding U.S. options orders
  • Riverstone seeks up to $1.5b in IPO for energy investment
  • Danone’s Dumex to release bribery probe results this month
  • Anadarko says it didn’t cause spill-related investor losses
  • Airlines face carbon-reduction verdict on $708b industry
  • Microsoft adopts plan to retain executives during CEO change
  • Wal-Mart gender-bias suit class claims dismissed by U.S. judge
  • Monte Paschi seen boosting cost-cut goals to meet EU demands
  • Sony film marketing chief Weinstock said to exit role
  • Spain’s Val said to hire Jefferies to find buyer for Ono stake
  • German Sept. business confidence missed ests.

EARNINGS:

    • AAR (AIR) 4pm, $0.45
    • Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 4:02pm, $0.21
    • CarMax (KMX) 7:35am, $0.57
    • Carnival (CCL) 9:15am, $1.29
    • Copart (CPRT) Aft-mkt, $0.40 - Preview
    • KB Home (KBH) 8:30am, $0.21 - Preview
    • Lennar (LEN) 6am, $0.45 - Preview
    • Neogen (NEOG) 8:45am, $0.32

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Indonesia Vows to Stick With Tin Trade Policy as Prices Jump
  • Palm-Oil Stockpiles Expanding Add to Record Supply: Commodities
  • Copper Drops for Third Day on Concern About U.S. Budget Clash
  • WTI Crude Drops to Six-Week Low as Global Supply Concern Eases
  • Soybeans Advance From One-Month Low as U.S. Shipments Increase
  • Gold Falls in London as Investors Weigh Fed, Physical Demand
  • China Grabs First-Ever Global Steel Majority: Chart of the Day
  • China to Double Gas Use in Five Years to 2015 in Pollution Drive
  • Beef Imports by China Seen Surging While U.S. Remains Locked Out
  • Rubber Drops Most in Two Months as Crude Oil Prices Fall
  • Crude Stockpiles Fall to 18-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Shippers Poised to Return to Profit as Cargoes Grow 10%: Freight
  • Arabica Seen Declining 9% by End of October: Technical Analysis
  • Rebar Falls as Li Says China Has Chosen Steady Monetary Policy

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more