The Client Comes First: China/Taiwan


Taiwan export data indicates that Chinese buyers are still shopping...


Position: Long China via CAF


At -31.4%, Taiwanese export data for May released earlier today showed a sequential improvement on a year-over-year basis from April's figures. As anticipated, a major factor was an increase in shipments bound for the mainland, with PRC exports improving to -32.45 Y/Y,  a massive improvement over January's bottom but still well below the single digit decline registered in February when the floodgates were initially opened by Beijing. Exports to the mainland accounted for 27.64% of total shipments for the month.


The Client Comes First: China/Taiwan - taiw1



As expected after multiple companies reported increased orders for flat screen panels and other components in the wake of Beijing's consumer rebate program aimed at rural residents, electronics producers continued to see increased shipments in may.  Total electronics exports, a critical component at 28% of the national total, showed an improvement to   -18.67% Y/Y. Information and Communication products -a modest component of the total at just 4.5% of total exports for the month, leapt to -5.38 Y/Y and actually crossed into positive growth territory on a 2 year basis.


The Client Comes First: China/Taiwan - taiw2



Less eye popping but still worthy of note were the heavy and light industrial categories, which also registered modest improvements for the month -signaling that improving external demand has broadened beyond just consumer electronics.


This latest data continues to support our bullish thesis on Chinese demand recovery, while also supporting our conviction that Taiwan and South Korea are positioned to recover more rapidly than Japan as Chinese buyers take advantage of currency valuation and political goodwill.


Andrew Barber

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more