That said, as with all brands, I keep a close eye on every little data point I find. The chart below caught my eye. The good news is that the year/year change in average selling price is up dramatically in Guess' US wholesale business. This has been the case since about mid-2007 based on my math. The more interesting point is that the yy change in sell-thru rate has been negative in 4 of the 5 past quarters to the tune of 25%.
Bulls will point out that there's a lot more to the GES story than US wholesale. At less than 25% of cash flow, they're right. But for a well-loved, high-multiple name that has been a HUGE play on the weakening dollar, these are data points I simply cannot gloss over.
Source: NPD Fashionworld and Research Edge, LLC