MACAU OCTOBER BLOWOUT?

Takeaway: Still like LVS - the operator growing its market share

That’s the feeling on the ground.

Macau’s recent run has been outstanding – double digit YoY gross gaming revenue (GGR) increases monthly since January and accelerated growth over the summer.  September is off to a great start and we are looking for high teens growth.  What could be the next catalyst?  How about a record month in October, but not just a record?  There are some market participants who feel that Macau could grow by 30% YoY.

Our own forecast currently calls for 18-22% YoY growth.  However, that projection is solely based on carrying the recent monthly GGR levels forward with a seasonal adjustment.  Following some calls to Macau, we’re starting to believe our estimate could be low.

Strong junket and high end Mass bookings for the October holiday are fueling the optimism.  Some are suggesting GGR of HK$35.0 billion which would crush the hold-aided record month of March 2013 of HK$30.4 billion.  We’re not ready to go there yet but HK$32.0+ (+20% YoY) seems likely, +25% doable, and 30% possible.