This note was originally published September 03, 2013 at 11:17 in Macro
POSITION: 12 LONGS, 5 SHORTS @Hedgeye
I finally caught a post-summer beach wave to the upside here – and for the right reasons; summer is over, and US growth expectations continue to make a comeback.
Post the best NSA rolling Jobless Claims print we have seen all year (last Thursday = -10.6% y/y), and a solid PMI Friday, we just got a barn burner of a New Orders print out of the ISM (63.2! for AUG). Good looking end to the world there.
Additionally, across our core risk management durations here are the lines that matter to me most right now:
- Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1661
- Intermediate-term TREND support = 1630
So, does US #GrowthAccelerating data support a stock market holding its TREND line? Today, the market’s answer to that is yes. And if you look at the growthier components of the stock market (QQQ), the answer is a resounding yes.
The new bear case is going to be that they were so wrong on growth’s slope change in 2013 that its really bearish now (from a much higher price).
Meanwhile, the real bear case to be made in 2013 was in bonds. #RatesRising for the right reasons.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer