• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

As a follow up to our previous note...

August GGR grew 18% YoY to HK$29.85 billion (US$3.85 billion).  Mass, VIP, and slot revenues increased 44%, 8%, and 15% YoY, respectively.  VIP hold % (including direct play) was 2.89% - below trailing 24-month average of 2.98%.  With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth would have been +23%

Here is the detail:

YOY TABLE OBSERVATIONS

Total table revenue grew 18% YoY.  Mass market growth actually accelerated at 44% growth.  VIP volume rose 16% while VIP revenue gained 8%.

LVS

LVS led the market in table win at +41%.  Mass revs soared 72% (highest growth in the market) while VIP RC grew 25%. Including direct play, we estimate that LVS held at 2.9% in August, in-line with last August, assuming direct play of 17% vs. 21% last year.  

  • Sands fell 16%, 1st decline since February 2013
    • Mass grew 17%
    • VIP revenue fell 41%, while RC fell 24%
    • Sands held at 2.1% vs 2.8% in the same period last year.  We assume 10% direct play in August vs 8% in August 2012.
  • Venetian grew 18% 
    • Mass increased 46%
    • VIP revenue fell 6%, 2nd consecutive month of declines
    • Junket VIP RC gained 25%
    • Assuming 28% direct play, hold was 2.9% compared to 3.7% in August 2012, assuming 30% direct play 
  • Four Seasons gained 45%
    • Mass revenue soared almost 200% on a comp of -33%
    • VIP revenue grew 28% and junket RC rose 9%. August hold (assuming 15% direct play) was 3.4% vs 2.8% in August 2012 when direct play was 16%.
  • Sands Cotai Central rocketed 157% higher
    • Mass jumped 190% 
    • VIP revenues grew 137% 
    • Junket RC gained 79%
    • If we assume that direct play was 10%, hold would have been 3.0% vs 2.2% in August 2012 when direct play was 9%. 

MPEL

MPEL gained 31% in table revenues.  Mass growth continued to excel at 69% while VIP growth was 17%. We estimate that MPEL held at 3.3% vs 2.9% last August.  Estimated direct play was 11%, in-line with last year, but up sequentially.

  • Altira table revenues grew 36%.  
    • VIP revs soared 41%, on a comp of -45%
    • VIP RC gained 6%
    • Mass gained 9%
    • We estimate that hold was 2.8%, compared to 2.0% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 29% YoY
    • Mass increased 78%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
    • VIP win grew 10% but RC was flat
    • Assuming a 16% direct play level, hold was 3.6% in August compared to 3.4% last year (assuming 15% direct play)

WYNN

Wynn table revenues grew 11%

  • VIP revenues grew 12%, while VIP RC increased 17% 
  • Wynn held at 3.3% (assuming direct play of 8%) vs 3.3% last August (assuming direct play of 10%)
  • Mass revenues gained 3%

MGM

MGM table revenues grew 18%

  • We estimate that hold was 2.9% adjusted for direct play of 7% vs hold of 3.1% last year assuming 8% direct play
  • VIP RC and Mass grew 25% and 32%, respectively

GALAXY

Galaxy table revenues slipped 1% on poor hold, 1st decline since April 2013.  VIP revenues declined 13% while RC volumes grew 11%.  On the bright side, Mass growth was strong at 43%.  Hold was 2.8% in August 2013 vs. 3.6% last year.

  • Starworld table revenues fell 2%
    • Mass soared 51%
    • VIP declined 10%.  
    • Junket RC rose 18%
    • Hold was 2.2% vs 2.9% last year
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues was flat
    • Mass had another great month at 54% growth
    • VIP fell 14%
    • Hold was 3.3% vs 4.1% last July

SJM

Total table revenue grew 13%, with mass and VIP growth of 24% and 7%, respectively. RC volume gained 19%.  SJM held at 2.6% vs 2.8% last year.

SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE - July to August (property specific details are for table share while company-wide statistics are calculated on total GGR, including slots):

LVS

Market share slipped 10bps to 22.7%.  August’s share is above its 6-month average of 21.4% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%. 

  • Sands' share fell 90bps to 2.6%, its lowest ever.  For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.2%.
    • Mass share dropped 60bps to 4.5%
    • VIP rev share fell 120bps to 1.6%
    • RC share lost 30bps to 2.0% 
  • Venetian’s share gained 60bps to 8.6%.  2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.3%.
    • Mass share increased 110bps to 14.5%
    • VIP share was unchanged at 5.5%
    • Junket RC share gained 50bps to 4.2%
  • FS gained gained 30bps to 3.8%.  This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.0%
    • VIP was up slightly to 4.5%
    • Mass share gained 70bps to 2.4%
    • Junket RC gained 30bps to 3.5%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 20bps to 7.3%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 6.5%.
    • Mass share was flat at 9.2%
    • VIP share fell 30bps to 6.4%
    • Junket RC share gained 30bps to 6.0%

MPEL

MPEL jumped 120bps in share in August to 14.4%. Its 6 month trailing share is 14.1% and their 2012 share was 13.5%.  

  • Altira’s share was flat at 3.3%, below its 6 month trailing share of 3.6% and 2012 share of 3.9%
    • Mass share slipped 10bps to 1.1%
    • VIP gained 20bps to 4.4%
    • VIP RC share fell 20bps to 4.7%
  • CoD’s share rose 130bps to 11.1%, above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.3%, respectively.
    • Mass market share gained 60bps to 12.9%, its highest ever
    • VIP share gained 150bps to 10.1%
    • RC share dropped 40bps to 7.3%

WYNN

Wynn GGR share was 11.6%, up 140bps MoM.  2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 10.8%.

  • Mass share fell 140bps to 6.3%
  • VIP share gained 320bps on higher hold 
  • Junket RC share gained 30bps to 12.4%

MGM 

MGM’s market share gained 80bps to 10.3%, above its 6M and 2012 average of 10%

  • Mass share gained 30bps to 6.9%
  • VIP share soared 130bps to 11.8%
  • Junket RC gained 120bps to 11.6%

GALAXY

Galaxy's share lost 280 bps to 17.1%, below its 2012 average and 6-month average share of 19.0% and 18.7%, respectively

  • Galaxy Macau share declined 90bps to 10.7%
    • Mass share was flat at 10.3%
    • VIP share declined 130bps to 10.9%
    • RC share lost 130bps to 10.3%
  • Starworld share tumbled 210bps to 5.5%
    • Mass share fell 90bps to 3.2%
    • VIP share dropped 250bps to 6.7%
    • RC share fell 60bps to 9.3%

SJM

SJM share lost 50bps to 23.9%, below their 2012 average of 26.7% and their 6M trailing average of 25.0%

  • Mass market shares slipped 10bps to 26.5%
  • VIP share lost 100bps to 23.4%
  • Junket RC share rose 10bps to 28.2%

Slot Revenue

Slot revenue grew 15% YoY to US$155MM in August

  • LVS had the best YoY growth at 35% to $51MM
  • Galaxy grew 17% to $20MM
  • MPEL gained 12% to $26MM
  • WYNN gained 12% to $19MM
  • MGM gained 4% to $22MM  
  • SJM had the worst YoY slot performance for the 2nd consecutive month, -8% to $17MM

MACAU: MORE DETAIL FOR AUGUST - macau44