prev

Volatility Lives!

This note was originally published at 8am on August 14, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Does man live from inside out or from outside in?”

-Erich Maria Remarque

 

I just got back from Thunder Bay and have that quote underlined in a post WWI German inflation novel that one of our clients in London gave me – The Black Obelisk. When I read it, I immediately thought of Global Macro investing legend, Ray Dalio.

 

Dalio’s signature quote about risk management is also a question: “What is the truth?” And whether it’s his, pardon the pun, All-Weather Fund’s issues, or performance problems most of us have faced over the course of our careers, there’s one thing that tends to answer all the questions we never knew we should have asked – it’s called volatility.

 

The number one thing that has created draw-down risk in every major hedge fund strategy since the beginning of time has been, and will continue to be, volatility. If your strategy assumes the wrong volatility parameters, you are assuming risks that you do not understand. On a percentage basis, did the biggest q/q change in 50 years in Treasury yields matter? Big time.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Slides 15, 16 and 17 of our current #RatesRising Global Macro Theme deck outlined how massive outflows from Fixed Income related securities plays out:

 

1.   Quantitative Signal (Slide 15) – we show what we coined “The Waterfall” of rate risk as 10yr US Treasury Yields broke out across all three of our core risk management durations (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL – with the TAIL risk line = 1.92%)

 

2.   Causal Factor (Slide 16) – we show how unconventional Fed policy exacerbated a bond bubble (Fed Balance Sheet vs 10yr Yield over the last 10 years = R-square of 0.795)

 

3.   Correlation Factor (Slide 17) – we show that on a % basis, the most recent rate of change in the 10 year US Treasury Yield (quarter-over-quarter) was the largest in the last 50 years

 

Call us lucky or call us right. The truth is that we cut our asset allocation to Fixed Income to 0% for the aforementioned reasons alongside many more that were driving a regime change in terms of how our model values growth versus slow growth allocations.

 

When we were bearish on growth (until November of 2012) we were long US Treasuries; when our views on the slope of growth changed from slowing to stabilizing, we started to move to the dark side (in bonds).

 

#Process review:

  1. We get the market signal
  2. We do the long-cycle research to find asymmetric (phase change) risks
  3. We wait for the market to tell us when causal factors (expectations changes) drive correlation risk

This is no victory lap. I just feel that it’s important to show people what it is that we do in a transparent, open, and accountable forum of debate. The only all-weather protection against volatility ripping is getting out, before it rips.

 

Throughout the last 9 months (as US growth went from slowing to stabilizing to accelerating) markets have provided us plenty of opportunity to get into growth related asset classes and out of slow growth ones. August to-date is no different:

 

1.   Utilities (XLU) are the most overvalued slice of the slow-growth equity pie (with hyper-overvalued securities like MLPs within this Sector Style Risk). XLU is down -1.38% for August to-date (versus SPY +0.5%)

 

2.   Tech (XLK) and Basic Materials (XLB) are up the most for August to-date at +2.11% and +2.45% respectively. Both are traditionally considered “growth” sectors but for very different reasons. AAPL is not CAT.

 

There’s a lot of risk in assuming that long-cycle cyclicals (like mining related stocks) are in the right spot from a “growth” investor’s perspective. Then there’s GARP (“growth at a reasonable price”) where mining stocks might look “cheap” too. Just don’t forget that the Mining Capex Cycle was a decade long bubble. The risk here is grounded in the volatility of the underlying commodities.

 

Where could we be wrong? Our research on something like Caterpillar (CAT) has been bearish, but now the market signal is stress testing our conviction in maintaining that position. If CAT were to close above my long-term TAIL risk line of $88.67 and hold that level on some real volume, my risk management process stops me out of the position.

 

Do I live my market life from looking inside our portfolio of ideas or from the outside looking in? The truth is that I do both. It’s a learning process. Whenever I ignore the outside, top-down, macro market signals, I will be reminded that volatility lives on the other side of my position’s underlying assumptions. And not in a good way.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr 2.64-2.75%

SPX 1682-1714

VIX 11.61-13.68

USD 80.92-82.18  

Gold 1276-1339

Copper 3.23-3.39

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Volatility Lives! - Utilities Yield Spread

 

Volatility Lives! - z. vp


THE M3: LVS FEDERAL SUIT RESOLVED; SJM SLOT PARLOR; GONGBEI TRAFFIC; VIETNAM

THE MACAU METRO MONITOR, AUGUST 28, 2013

 

 

LVS TO PAY $47.4MM TO SETTLE FED PROBE AP

LVS has agreed to pay $47.4 million after failing to flag millions of dollars in money transfers made by a gambler linked to drug trafficking.  In return, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Los Angeles will not seek an indictment against LVS.  The deal, finalized late Monday, also brings the government's criminal investigation to a close, but requires LVS to boost its efforts to monitor suspicious financial transactions for the next two years.

 

The investigation centered on Chinese-Mexican businessman Zhenli Ye Gon, which prosecutors describe as a high-stakes player who gambled at several major casinos, including the Venetian between 2004 and 2007.  In that period, Ye Gon lost more than $125 million at multiple casinos, including $84 million at the Venetian, according to the settlement agreement filed by prosecutors.  Ye Gon's Venetian losses also included $36.5 million in credit that the casino advanced to him and that was later written off as bad debt.

 

Investigators concluded that LVS failed to comply with a federal law requiring casinos report suspicious financial transactions involving customers.

 

SJM'S SLOT MACHINE PARLOR TO BE REMOVED IN NOVEMBER Macau Daily News

SJM Holdings executive director Angela Leong said that the group has always abided by the government policy and their slot machines parlors in residential areas will be removed gradually.  Leong said that the slot parlor in Canidrome will be moved in November.  She stressed that the company will relocate gaming facilities affecting citizens, but the evacuation cannot be accomplished in one go as the company needs time to make changes on the operations side, such as human resources issues.

 

MORE PASSENGERS COMING THROUGH GONGBEI BORDER Macau Daily News

Gongbei immigration recorded a historical high at 320,000 border crossings on a single day yesterday with summer holiday coming to an end soon, and Hengqin port also recorded a daily high of over 220,000 border crossing.  Gongbei checkpoint said that since last month, it has eight consecutive weekends that break the single-day traffic 300,000 record.

 

VIETNAM DOES U-TURN ON CASINO BAN FOR LOCALS; WILL INVESTORS BITE?  Thanh Nien News

In a surprise twist, Vietnam’s top leadership has given the green light for locals to enter one of the country’s casinos for a trial period.  The Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo has allowed Vietnamese meeting certain criteria to gamble in a casino to be built in the Van Don Economic Zone in Quang Ninh Province bordering China, deputy speaker of the National Assembly, Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, said at a meeting of the house Standing Committee held August 15 to debate a bill on betting and gambling.  But since last year the government has been saying that this issue is off the table, even enacting a law last month to slap fines of up to VND200 million ($9,500) on casinos who let locals in.

 

Minister of Finance Dinh Tien Dung maintained that position at the August 15 meeting, saying the ban needs to be in place to limit the impact of gambling on social safety and stability. But, given the entrenched gambling culture in the country, the ban on entering casinos at home sends droves of Vietnamese across the border into Cambodia to gamble in casinos there.

 

It is not clear, however, when the full house will debate the bill on betting and gambling and approve it.  Of the licensed casinos, four are in the north – one each in Lao Cai and Quang Ninh provinces bordering China – enabling Vietnam to pull in increasingly affluent Chinese gamblers, experts say.  But they otherwise remain skeptical about the locations of the northern casinos, which they say are not convenient for international visitors.

 



real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

Deafening Drops

“The noise can be deafening.”

-George Gilder

 

When he wrote that in Knowledge and Power, Gilder was referring to government interference (in markets). He also went on to make the critical, but often overlooked, behavioral link between simple market signals (like interest rates) and central planning noise.

 

“Interest rates are critical for information-theory economic analysis because they are an index of real economic conditions. If the government manipulates them, they will issue false signals, breeding confusion that undermines entrepreneurial activity.” (pg 24)

 

That pretty much sums up what I think all of us are struggling with today. Inclusive of yesterday’s drop in interest rates (oil ripping new highs is an economic headwind), the bond market is becoming as good a leading indicator of the slope of US economic growth’s TREND as anything I can back-test.  At the same time, we have to deal with the deafening impact of central planning commentary.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Yesterday’s 1-day drop in the US stock market was deafening too. It came on a legitimate Information Surprise (Oil ripping on Syria) and the rotation you’d expect to see when expectations for growth fall (bond yields and US growth stocks have a positive correlation).

 

How did that deafening drop (there was no volume) fair within the context of the Top 3 biggest 1-day drops since April?

  1. June 20th, 2013 = SP500 -2.5%
  2. April 15th,2013 = SP500 -2.3%
  3. August 28th,2013 = SP500 -1.6%

#EOW (end of world) type stuff, I know.

 

In both of the prior 1-day freak-outs (which were bigger in terms of both magnitude and volume), fear spiked (front-month VIX) to higher levels than what you saw yesterday too. In other words:

  1. US stocks keep making higher intermediate-term TREND lows
  2. US Equity Volatility keeps making lower intermediate-term TREND highs

That’s why we do the multi-duration risk management thing. How else are you going to contextualize the immediate-term TRADE noise of Mr. Market if you don’t have anything to signal the intermediate-term TREND?

 

Since we are raging bears on Emerging Market Equities (EEM), this morning’s discussion is more focused on how to interpret US market noise (US markets include big stuff like the currency and bond market). Here are the other two Big Macro Signals I care about most:

  1. US Dollar Index grinded out another higher-low (versus the recent FEB and JUN lows) and held long-term TAIL support
  2. US 10yr Treasury Yield (2.73% this morning) held both TRADE (2.69%) and TREND (2.44%) levels of support = higher-lows

And yes, the TREND is your less noisy friend, until he/she isn’t – I get that. I also get that Oil prices steadily rising from here could cut US consumption growth in half, sequentially. So there’s a lot to think about (including whether this will be the YTD high in oil altogether).

 

But while I think, I have to try hard to take the emotion out of the decisions I make on what to do next. That’s why my immediate-term TRADE signals determine my short-term risk management decisions. I’ve tried the feel thing – and it ends up not feeling good.

 

When running money in a bull market like this for US growth stocks, not selling the lows is one of the most important decisions you can make. What if you read Zero Hedge, capitulated to your emotional state, and sold the April 15th and/or June 20th lows?

  1. By April 18th (3days later), the SP500 locked in another higher-YTD-low of 1541
  2. By June 24th (3days later), the SP500 locked in another higher-YTD-low of 1573

Can you wait 3 more days to see if this noise settles? Or are we all high-frequency blog freaks now? By August 2nd 2013 (when the SP500 hit its all-time closing high of 1709) you’d have been up +11% and/or +8.6% in SPY, respectively. Just saying.

 

Maybe the world is going to end this time. I started making that call around this time in 2007 (and it almost did end). But this is not 2007, and not one of the people and/or risk management processes that called it last time is making that call this time either.

 

Maybe everyone who didn’t call the 2007 topping process is going to nail it this time. But maybe not. All I can tell you is that the noise of #PTCs (professional top callers) since April of 2013 has been deafening.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.70-2.93%

SPX 1

EEM (Emerging Markets) 36.91-38.49

VIX 15.05-18.98
USD 80.91-81.73

Brent 110.69-115.98

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Deafening Drops - CHART

Deafening Drops - vp


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 28, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 45 points or 0.58% downside to 1621 and 2.18% upside to 1666.                                                                                                                               

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.35 from 2.35
  • VIX  closed at 16.77 1 day percent change of 11.87%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 23 (prior -4.6%)
  • 7:45am: BoE’s Carney speaks in Nottingham, England
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales M/m, July, est. 0.0% (prior -0.4%)
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b in 2020-2023 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 5Y notes

GOVERNMENT:

    • 10am: FDIC to consider new version of proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule that would require lenders to keep stake in risky mortgages they securitize
    • 11am: 50th anniversary of March on Washington civil rights rally, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech; President Barack Obama, former Presidents Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, will speak
    • U.S. Defense Sec. Chuck Hagel attends mtg of defense chiefs of ASEAN and their counterparts from nations including Japan, South Korea and China in Brunei

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • BofA’s Merrill reaches $160m deal in black advisers’ suit
  • Syria strike looms as U.S. readies forces with U.K., France
  • Ex-JPMorgan trader released, opposes U.S. extradition
  • JPMorgan “London Whale” fines may reach $600m: WSJ
  • Sumitomo Mitsui, Orix said to weigh bids for AIG-owned planes
  • Currency spikes at 4pm in London provide rate-rigging clues
  • AMR-US Airways trial should wait until March, U.S. says
  • Switzerland close to resolving undeclared U.S. accounts issue
  • China to strictly control new local govt debt: Xinhua
  • TPG-backed China Grand Auto is said to revive $500m IPO
  • PepsiCo may buy up to 25% in Balaji Wafers, Line reports
  • India’s Foreign Investment Board clears Mylan deal: Express
  • N.Y. Times, Twitter web-address data hacked by Syrian group

EARNINGS:

    • Brown-Forman (BF/B) 8am, $0.71
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8:30am, C$0.59 - Preview
    • Chico’s (CHS) 7:15am, $0.32
    • Express (EXPR) 7am, $0.20
    • Fresh Market (TFM) Aft-mkt, $0.32
    • Guess? (GES) 4:03pm, $0.36
    • Joy Global (JOY) 6am, $1.36 - Preview
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 7:15am, C$2.06 - Preview
    • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 4:05pm, $0.47

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • LME Facing Big Bang After Largest Metals Bourse Names New Chief       
  • Potash King Becomes Hostage as Belarus Pokes Putin: Commodities
  • Commodities Gain to Six-Month High as Oil Rallies on Syrian Risk
  • WTI Crude Rises to Two-Year High on Syria; SocGen Sees $150 Risk
  • Gold Nears Bull-Market Territory as Syrian Tensions Spur Demand
  • Copper Retreats for a Second Day Amid Escalating Syria Tension
  • Corn Output in China Seen Lower on Heavy Rain, Researcher Says
  • Sugar Declines as Brazil Millers Favor Sweetener; Cocoa Advances
  • Gold Supply Hit Record in 2Q on OTC Market, GFMS Says: BI Chart
  • Oil Diverges From U.S. Stocks Most Since 2011 on Syria Concerns
  • McDonald’s ‘Mighty Wings’ Seen Boosting Prices: Chart of the Day
  • Gas Price Jump Seen in Record Europe Stockpiling: Energy Markets
  • Cranes Hoist Lebanon Economy as Syrian War Helps Port: Freight
  • Tocqueville Is Best Gold Fund Amid Price Plunge: Riskless Return

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


M: We’re Still Negative on Macy’s

Takeaway: Sales under pressure, margins rolling over, increased SG&A, and higher capex. Sorry, but the ‘cheap valuation’ argument is irrelevant.

This note was originally published August 14, 2013 at 19:11 in Retail

Conclusion: Macy’s has been #1 on our list of top three shorts (followed by Gap and Dick’s), and as such, the print today is not a surprise to us. We have no crystal ball as to the comp that Macy’s has been generating, so we’re not claiming to have forecasted the specific sales shortfall in this given 13-week period. But we’ve viewed the triangulation of M’s P&L, Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet as being like an increasingly stressed balloon under water. This event does nothing other than strengthen our confidence in our call.

M: We’re Still Negative on Macy’s - macy1 

DETAILS

Out of any name we cover (and we cover just about all of retail) there is not a single name we find ourselves more fiercely debating than Macy’s. The most common bull arguments we hear are a) the company has been so poorly run for so long, and that investments in Magic Selling, MyMacy’s, Omni-Channel, etc… are making up for years of share loss, and b) the stock is so cheap at just 12x earnings.

 

But we think that valuation is irrelevant, as it is not a catalyst – and never has been – especially with a levered zero-square-footage growth retailer where numbers can change so quickly. 

 

We recognize that there are certainly ways that Macy’s can operate more efficiently and can fine-tune its approach to going after share-of-wallet. But we think that there are too many factors converging on both the P&L and balance sheet that are stacking the odds against a positive change in return on invested capital. When returns are going down, there’s no reason a 12x multiple can’t turn into a 10x multiple – and there’s no rule that says that it needs to stop there.  Factors that specifically concern us are as follows…

1)      Top Line

a) We can’t forget that in 2012, Macy’s grew its top line by $1.5bn, which is the same time that JC Penney lost $4.3bn in sales. Macy’s management completely discounts the idea that any of its sales gain has come at the expense of JCP. If not outright cocky, we think that at a minimum management is being intellectually dishonest.  JCP will start to regain share at some point in 2H --- or lose share at a lesser rate (which is a negative change on the margin for competitors). If JCP fails, it will inflict pain while it tries. The other retailers (including Macy’s) are in denial. 

 

M: We’re Still Negative on Macy’s - mcgough1

 

b) Macy’s management did a very poor job articulating the source of the 2Q sales miss. Transaction count was down 1.6%, and they noted that consumers are more interested in buying cars, houses and spending on home improvement than they are in spending in department stores.  Seriously? What’s ridiculous is that there’s no way for them to know why consumers are NOT shopping in their stores. This is particularly troubling in light of point A – in that Macy’s is blaming macro factors at the same time we’re seeing sales competition heat up in the mid tier.    

 

c) The company noted that comps had turned up in 3QTD. That’s nice given that we’re just starting back-to-school. But there’s a long way to go in BTS. We give the company credit for trying to keep expectations somewhat grounded that its way too early to declare victory – especially when there so many unknowns as to why sales performance missed like it did throughout 2Q.
 

2)      Gross Margins were down only 10 basis points for the quarter – which is pretty impressive given the magnitude of the sales miss. But keep in mind that the sales/inventory spread eroded by 700bp, as inventories were up 6.4% despite a 0.8% sales decline. Had the company more appropriately cleared out inventory on hand, we’d have seen more Gross Margin pressure. (Notice the swing into the third quadrant of our SIGMA chart below). Either way, management has been vocal about saying that gross margins would be tough to improve from here, and that EBIT margins would need to come from SG&A leverage…

M: We’re Still Negative on Macy’s - sigma

 

3)      …but SG&A is headed higher. In order to kick start the top line and have the proper marketing programs in place for a less-certain 2H, the company is taking up marketing costs. We’re not knocking it, as it’s the right thing to do. But the simple point is that with both the top line and gross margins under pressure, the P&L gets levered in the wrong direction with an uptick in SG&A. Let’s not forget that Macy’s has almost $400mm in interest expense as well – which is another negative leverage kicker.

 

4)      Lastly, capex is running at $925mm this year. There hasn’t been any increase in capex guidance, which is good, but the reality is that it is still up 33% from $698mm last year.

 

The punchline is that we’ve got sales down, gross margins rolling over, increased SG&A spending, and higher capex. In that context, the ‘cheap valuation’ argument is simply irrelevant. We’re modeling flat operating profit over the next four years, with earnings growth only being driven by 3-4% of financial engineering (debt paydown and repo). Our earnings 3-years out are 25% below consensus (see our assumptions in financial summary below). While a 10x p/e and 5x EBITDA multiple only suggests a stock in the low $40s out that far, the reality is that those same multiples could get to a stock with a 3-handle closer in.

 

M: We’re Still Negative on Macy’s - mstats


GET THE HEDGEYE MARKET BRIEF FREE

Enter your email address to receive our newsletter of 5 trending market topics. VIEW SAMPLE

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

next