LATE AUGUST CRUISE PRICING SURVEY

Celebrity is weaker but overall, not much change in trends.  We’re still cautious heading into Wave season.

 

  • Caribbean pricing did not move much.  Getaway is getting a good premium ahead of its inaugural Caribbean voyages in February 2014.
  • Celebrity exhibited pricing weakness across most regions, probably as a tactic in response to the negative publicity stemming from the Celebrity Millennium troubles in Alaska. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary setback for RCL’s premium brand, which has had a great year. Meanwhile, the RC brand showed strength in its close-in FY 2013 European pricing.
  • Costa's 2014 pricing remains steady

Here are some observations from our proprietary pricing survey of >12,000 itineraries.  We analyze YoY trends, as well as relative trends, which are determined by pricing compared to the last earnings/guidance date for a cruise operator i.e. CCL: 6/25; RCL: 7/25; NCLH: 7/29.

 

CCL

 

Caribbean

  • FQ4 close-in pricing remained weak, though it is slightly better than a month ago.  FQ1 2014 pricing was moderately lower YoY and FQ2 2014 pricing was flat. Relative trend is stable.

Europe

  • Costa’s close-in FQ4 pricing of mid-to-upper teens growth continued through August. Early 2014 Costa pricing trend is slightly positive.
  • Cunard’s FQ1 pricing is down double digits YoY.  Pricing trend remains negative.  
  • The new ship, Royal Princess, had some discounting for its FQ2 2014 itineraries, relative to July 
  • AIDA pricing was mixed with Scandinavia/Red Sea itinerary was doing a little better than Western Europe/Eastern Med

Alaska

  • Holland America pricing finally turned around in Alaska, up nicely YoY in FQ2 2014 and FQ3 2014

Asia, Mexico, & South America

 

  • Asia 
    • Costa’s and Holland America’s FQ1 2014 pricing trend was flat. Princess’s pricing for its sparse itineraries was slightly positive.    
  • Mexico    
    • Carnival pricing was down 14% YoY in FQ4, -3% in FQ1 and flat in FQ2
    • Holland America’s pricing trend was flat, while Princess pricing trend was moderately positive
  • South America
    • Costa’s and Holland America’s pricing trend was flat, while Princess’s pricing trend was slightly positive

RCL

 

Caribbean

  • RC brand:  YoY pricing for FQ4 and FQ1 were similar to the last pricing update in early August.  FQ2 pricing was roughly flat.
  • Celebrity:  pricing worsened YoY in FQ4 and FQ1. Trend was slightly negative.
  • Pullmantur:  flat pricing trend

Europe

  • RC brand:  FQ4 close-in pricing was very strong but FQ2 2014 pricing was moderately lower YoY
  • Celebrity:  FQ2 2014 pricing is down substantially and trend was negative.  
  • Pullmantur:  close-in pricing trend was slightly positive

Alaska

  • Celebrity YoY pricing was 12% lower for F2Q 2014.

Asia and South America

  • Asia 
    • RC brand, Celebrity, and Azamara pricing were all slightly positive for FQ1-FQ2 2014.
  • South America
    • Positive RC brand pricing offset by lower Celebrity pricing in 2014

NCLH

 

Caribbean

  • Close-in pricing was a little better than that seen in early August.  FQ1/FQ2 pricing was up slightly.
  • Very close-in Breakaway pricing was slightly higher while early FQ 2014 pricing was slightly negative.
  • Getaway pricing had a nice 5% uptick in its pricing since early August.  It is commanding a 50% premium to Epic and a 10% premium to Sun. 

Europe/Hawaii

  • Flat pricing trend across all durations.