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THE M3: JULY VISITOR ARRIVALS

THE MACAU METRO MONITOR, AUGUST 23, 2013

 

 

MACAU VISITOR ARRIVALS FOR JULY 2013 DSEC

Visitor arrivals increased by 4.9% YoY to 2,565,170 in July 2013.  Visitors from Mainland China increased by 14.0% YoY to 660,096, coming primarily from Guangdong Province (738,106) and Fujian Province (74,292).  Mainland visitors traveling under the Individual Visit Scheme was 730,405. Moreover, visitors from the Republic of Korea (38,416) and the Philippines (18,859)  increased by 6.6% and 0.9% respectively, while those from Hong Kong (598,200); Taiwan (91,226); and Japan (20,593) decreased by 6.5%, 18.7% and 41.4%. 
     
The average length of stay of visitors held stable from a year earlier, at 1.0 day in July 2013.

 

THE M3: JULY VISITOR ARRIVALS - VISITOR1


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 23, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 0.90% downside to 1642 and 0.85% upside to 1671.                                                 

                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.50 from 2.50
  • VIX  closed at 14.76 1 day percent change of -7.40%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Summit continues
  • 10am: New Home Sales, July, est. 487k (prior 497k)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b in 2020-2023 sector
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama speaks on improving value of higher education at Binghamton University in Vestal, N.Y., and with Vice President Joe Biden at Lackawanna College in Scranton, Penn.
    • 11am: U.S. Chamber of Commerce briefing on TPP negotiations taking place in Brunei this week
    • Pentagon weighs firing thousands of civilians under 2014 cuts

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Nasdaq says cause of connectivity issue has been addressed
  • Nasdaq shuts trading for 3 hours after computer errors
  • SEC’s White vows tech safeguards after Nasdaq failure
  • JPMorgan said to face London Whale fines as soon as next mo.
  • CFTC said near releasing high-speed trading regulation plans
  • Amgen said to push for lower Onyx price amid drug-data dispute
  • Koch Industries backs away from bid for Tribune’s newspapers
  • Moody’s mulls downgrade of big banks as U.S. support wanes
  • Mitsubishi aircraft gets U.S. airlines’ backing amid delays
  • AMR, US Airways want trial for U.S. antitrust suit in Nov.
  • Southwest blind spot eroding U.S. bid to bar AMR-US Airways
  • Alibaba said to ask HKEx to allow partners to nominate board
  • Wells Fargo eyes 20% ann. growth in Asia fund-services clients
  • ADM says Graincorp offer extended to Nov. 16 from Aug. 31
  • Richmond says bondholders’ suit over eminent domain too early
  • Baidu buys 59% stake in Renren website for $160m
  • Amazon said to have tested wireless network in California
  • U.K. economy grows a more-than-estimated 0.7% as exports rise
  • U.S. GDP, King Speech Anniv., Carney: Wk Ahead Aug. 24-31

EARNINGS:

    • Ann Inc (ANN) 7:30am, $0.65
    • Foot Locker (FL) 7am, $0.47
    • Hibbett Sports (HIBB) 6:30am, $0.38

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Crude Futures Head for Biggest Weekly Decline in a Month               
  • Gold Bears Take Over as Fed Members Back Taper Plan: Commodities
  • Sugar Exports From India Get Boost From Record Rupee Plunge
  • Gold’s Rout Spurs Surge in Indonesian Demand: Southeast Asia
  • Corn and Soybeans Rise as Midwest Seen Set for Heat and Dryness
  • Copper Climbs on Rebound Indications and Shrinking Inventories
  • Robusta Coffee Falls to 7-Week Low on Technicals; Sugar Advances
  • Rebar Rises as Data Signals Better Prospects for Global Recovery
  • Strike Threat May Cripple Money-Losing South Africa Gold Miners
  • Soybean Traders Most Bullish Since 2012 as Freeze Threat Looms
  • Coal Gets No Relief as Aussie Slide Deepens Glut: Energy Markets
  • Petrobras Outspends Exxon Researching Next Oil Frontiers: Energy
  • China’s Yunnan Tin Will Halt Lead Smelting After Price Declines
  • Soy, Corn Yields Seen Less Than USDA Estimates on Midwest Tour

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT

Takeaway: The number of people filing initial jobless claims continues to drop at an accelerating rate year-over-year.

The Lowest Running Monthly Jobless Claims Level in 5 Years

 

In the most recent initial jobless claims series released this morning from the U.S. Department of Labor, weekly jobless claims thus far for the month of August is running at the lowest monthly level since November 2007.

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT - bw2

With employers holding on to more workers to meet an improving economy, this U.S. labor series may continue to improve as the effects of Federal budget cuts and higher payroll taxes burn off in the second half of 2013. In addition, the incremental impact of Obamacare is likely driving a portion of the underlying improvement, with nearly 75% of the 1 million jobs created this year being attributed to small and medium sized businesses hiring part time workers.

 

The Data

 

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims rose 16k to 336k from 320k week-over-week (WoW), as the prior week's number was revised up by 3k to 323k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were higher by 13k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -2.25k WoW to 330.5k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT - stein1


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INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR

Takeaway: The number of people filing initial jobless claims continues to drop at an accelerating rate year-over-year.

The Lowest Running Monthly Jobless Claims Level in 5 Years

 

In the most recent initial jobless claims series released this morning from the U.S. Department of Labor, weekly jobless claims thus far for the month of August is running at the lowest monthly level since November 2007. With employers holding on to more workers to meet an improving economy, this U.S. labor series may continue to improve as the effects of Federal budget cuts and higher payroll taxes burn off in the second half of 2013. In addition, the incremental impact of Obamacare is likely driving a portion of the underlying improvement, with nearly 75% of the 1 million jobs created this year being attributed to small and medium sized businesses hiring part time workers.

 

The Data

 

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims rose 16k to 336k from 320k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 3k to 323k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were higher by 13k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -2.25k WoW to 330.5k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -10.3% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -7.8%

 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 1

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 2

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 3

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 4

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 5

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 6

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 7 redo

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 8

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 9

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 10

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 11

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 12

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 13

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 19

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR - 14

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA


Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 


[VIDEO] Our #1 Q3 Macro Theme

 

It's late August on Wall Street. Volumes are light, ideas sparse and the Hamptons is packed. We think now is as good a time as any to reiterate Hedgeye's top Q3 Macro Theme. At the top of the list? You guessed it. #RatesRising. 2.91% last tick on the 10-year.

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses this generational paradigm shift in bonds and says we aren't likely to see the 2012 lows on 10-year bond yields ever again. (Yes, "ever" is a long time.)


SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: 8 LONGS, 3 SHORTS @Hedgeye

 

As my colleague Daryl Jones offered up as the opening volley in the Early Look this morning, “Volumes are light, ideas are sparse and the Hamptons are packed.  Welcome to summer on Wall Street!” We at Hedgeye are, however, not short on investment ideas (see our best ideas list included in today’s Early Look) and are keeping our eyes peeled on buying opportunities into this equity market correction.

 

Grounded behind our call on #GrowthAccelerating and #RatesRising, and with the SPX currently -3.4% off its year-to-date high (on 8/2), our core risk management durations for the SPX are:

  1. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1631, held
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1642, held too
  3. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1670, then the all-time high = 1709

In other words, we like the risk/reward set-up of covering shorts and buying them here.

 

Enjoy your summer Thursday,

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

 

SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX 3month


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