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ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities

Takeaway: While Equity fund flow slowed from last week it remained positive versus Fixed Income flow which continues to be decidedly negative

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

 

Equity Mutual Fund inflow slowed to $1.4 billion for the week ending August 14th, down from a $3.4 billion inflow the week prior but remained positive

 

Fixed Income Fund flows accelerated to a bigger draw down with a $3.9 billion outflow for the week which compared to the $2.0 billion outflow last week

 

Both Equity and Fixed Income ETF money flow was negative for the week with Equity ETFs losing $1.8 billion in fund flow and Fixed Income passive products losing $209 million in investor capital

 

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - Table 1

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - Table 2

 

For the week ending August 14th, the Investment Company Institute reported softening equity mutual fund flow trends albeit positive flow trends and accelerating week-over-week declines in fixed income mutual funds. Total equity fund flow totaled a $1.4 billion inflow which broke out to a $2.2 billion inflow into international equity products and a $764 million outflow in domestic stock funds. These trends compared to the week prior which experienced a much larger inflow of $3.4 billion with positive flow in both stock categories. Despite this deceleration in stock fund flows, the year-to-date weekly average for 2013 now sits at a $2.7 billion inflow for total equity products, a substantial improvement from the $3.0 billion outflow averaged per week in 2012.

 

On the fixed income side, outflow trends worsened during the week with the aggregate of taxable and tax-free bond funds combining to lose $3.9 billion in fund flow. This was almost a doubling of the $2.0 billion lost in the prior week with the taxable bond category specifically shedding $1.8 billion in the most recent period versus a slight inflow of $33 million last week. Tax-free or municipal bonds continued their sharp outflow trends losing another $2.0 billion in the week ending August 14th, in line with the outflow from the week ending August 7th. The 2013 weekly average for fixed income fund flow has now drastically declined from 2012, now averaging just a $469 million inflow this year, a far cry from the $5.8 billion weekly inflow averaged last year.

 

Hybrid funds, or products that combine both fixed income and equity allocation, continue to be the most stable category bringing in another $1.5 billion in the most recent weekly period. The year-to-date weekly average inflow for hybrid products is now $1.7 billion for '13, almost a 100% increase from 2012's $911 million weekly average.

 

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - ICI 1

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - ICI 2

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - ICI 3

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - ICI 4

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - ICI 5

 

Passive Products Were in Outflow Last Week:

 

Both categories of exchange traded funds experienced redemptions by investors for the week ending August 14th. Equity ETFs lost $1.8 billion, the biggest outflow in 7 weeks and a reversal from the robust $6.2 billion which came into stock ETFs last week. Despite this week's outflow, 2013 weekly average equity ETF trends are averaging a $3.6 billion weekly inflow, a sharp improvement from last year's $2.2 billion weekly average.

 

Bond ETFs also had soft trends in the most recent weekly period losing $209 million in fund flow. This slight outflow was a vast improvement from the substantial outflow from last week of $3.8 billion however the 2013 weekly average is now just $401 million, much lower than the $1.0 billion average weekly bond ETF inflow from 2012.

 

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - ETF 1

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - ETF 2

 

HEDGEYE Asset Management Thought of the Week - Follow the Money Flow:

 

With exchange traded funds generally representing 60% institutional use and 40% retail investor use, we think it is valuable to look at year-to-date specific product flow trends to see where investor interest is gravitating. Looking at the ETF products with the most substantial fund flow as a percent of outstanding assets relays improving flow in domestic equity sector ETFs and also passive Japanese products. Conversely, 2013 has marked substantial selling of emerging market and bond ETF products thus far this year.

 

The biggest loss year-to-date has come from the MSCI Brazil iShare which has had over $3.0 billion withdrawn by investors or over 40% of its assets. The SPDR gold ETF has experienced a fund flow loss of similar magnitude having lost $20 billion from investor withdrawals or over 34% of its assets to end at a level of $40.1 billion. Bond products have seen accelerated loses since the beginning of the summer with the iShare TIPS fund now having seen a 29% redemption for the year and the SPDR high yield ETF, the JNK, now having lost 28% of its assets or $3.3 billion. With the passive unmanaged nature of these fixed income ETFs, we see these products as continuing to have disproportionate risk as bond fund flows continue to weaken.

 

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - Bottom 10 ETFs

ICI Fund Flow Continues to be Tilted Towards Equities - Top 10 ETFs

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

 

 

 

 


CHARTS DU JOUR: MACAU MASS HOLD

Still climbing but converging:  When will we know what is normal?

 

  • Luck obviously affects quarterly hold on all tables, not just VIP, but for Mass at least, it’s difficult to calculate.
  • Mass hold is impacted by the percent of chips taken out of the cage (not included in the denominator of the hold calculation) versus the table, dealer competency, player ability, and table minimums. 
  • Market hold has been on a steady climb especially for MPEL and Galaxy for all of the above reasons save luck.
  • Until we get a flattening of the rolling curve, it’s impossible to determine hold normalcy and calculate the luck impact on any given quarter.

CHARTS DU JOUR: MACAU MASS HOLD - JJ

 

CHARTS DU JOUR: MACAU MASS HOLD - HH


August 22, 2013

August 22, 2013 - dtr

 

BULLISH TRENDS

August 22, 2013 - 10yr

August 22, 2013 - spx

August 22, 2013 - ftse

August 22, 2013 - dax

August 22, 2013 - dxy

August 22, 2013 - euro

August 22, 2013 - oil

 

BEARISH TRENDS

August 22, 2013 - VIX

August 22, 2013 - yen

August 22, 2013 - natgas
August 22, 2013 - gold

August 22, 2013 - copper


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.


The Desert

“What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.”

-Antoine de Saint-Exupery

 

Volumes are light, ideas are sparse and the Hamptons are packed.  Welcome to summer on Wall Street!

 

The desert is the most pertinent geographical analogy to this part of the investing year.   Deserts are defined in a number of different ways, but generally the classification is based on the amount of precipitation that occurs in any year.  Below a certain level of precipitation, the region is considered a desert.  Think of precipitation as the idea generation engine of Wall Street that slows during the summer.

 

Interestingly, while most of us likely perceive a desert as a vast region of sand and limited plant growth, the reality is that only 20% of deserts have sand.  The largest desert in the world is actually the Antarctic Desert, which is, naturally, in Antarctica and covers more than 5.5 million square miles of ice and snow.  So, no, cold desert is not an oxymoron.

 

One place you don’t want to go after a long night of cavorting and over indulging is the Atacama Desert, which is the driest place on Earth and virtually devoid of life.  The average rainfall in parts of the Atacama is less than 1mm per year.  Further, evidence suggests that the Atacama may not have had any rainfall for the four hundred year period between 1570 and 1970.  Needless to say, even if you feel your portfolio is devoid of new ideas, there have been worse droughts!

 

In the Chart of the Day, I’ve attached our current Best Ideas list, which is comprised of the ideas that our research team recommends for three months and beyond (TREND) in our models.  Independent of this list I want to highlight the three ideas that I find most compelling.  They are as follows:

 

1.   International Game Technology (IGT) – IGT makes gaming machines and is, not to mince words, a free cash flow monster.  Over the course of the past three fiscal years, operating cash flow has outpaced total capital expenditures by over a $1 billion dollars in aggregate.    Compared to the current market capitalization of just under $5BN, this provides IGT ample cash to return to investors via share repurchases or debt pay down.

 

Speaking of debt pay down and cash flow, one of the more compelling reasons to own this stock is its potential interest to private equity firms and its inherent private market value.   As our Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan has oft noted, four private equity firms were interested in IGT’s competitor WMS and one made it to the final round before Scientific Games ultimately won out.

 

2.   Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM) – The roll up of mortgage servicing is a trillion dollar opportunity and NSM is ideally positioned.  (Translation: this is huge market.) NSM recently put up an EPS number for Q2 of $1.37, which outpaced the consensus estimate by almost 50%.  We think there is continued upside in numbers through 2014.  Currently based on the midpoint of NSM’s 2014 guidance, the stock is trading at less than 7x earnings with upward revisions and continued acquisition catalysts on the horizon.

 

3.   Fed-Ex (FDX) – FDX is just shy of a 52-week high and has outperformed the SP500 over that period, so is not necessarily a contrarian stock.  On a valuation basis, the stock is cheap trading at less than 6x TTM EV/EBITDA and has net cash on its balance sheet (excluding leases). 


Setting aside the financials, which are bullet proof, we think a key reason for owning the stock is that investors are currently ascribing little value to FedEx Express.  We think this division, once restructured, could have a similar margin to UPS or DHL’s express margin and generate an incremental $1.5BN in additional EBIT per year.   Frankly, if the Germans can make DHL Express profitable, it should be achievable for FDX.  If FDX can’t do it, there is no doubt an activist will consider stepping up.

 

Speaking of Fed-Ex, its key competitor UPS announced late yesterday that it was going to be dropping 15,000 spouses who are eligible for coverage from their own employer from its health insurance plan due to higher anticipated costs under the Affordable Care Act.  UPS expects to save up to $60MM per year on this “initiative”.

 

We’ve long extolled the benefits of limiting governments, in large part, due to unintended consequences of policy.   In the UPS instance, it may lead to less or more limited coverage for 15,000 working women.   There has also been ample evidence of workers hours being reduced so employers can avoid the punitive impact of the Affordable Care Act on their bottom line.

 

On a more macro level, there are potentially long term impacts to the labor market.  As Chicago Economist Casey Mulligan wrote in a recent blog for the New York Times:

 

“The Affordable Care Act’s explicit taxes on employers, subsidies for layoffs and implicit taxes on employees, together amount to five or six percentage point addition to the marginal tax rate on labor income.”

 

By Mulligan’s analysis, this may contract the labor pool by 3% in 2015.  At the end of the day, this shouldn’t really surprise any of us for as Milton Friedman said on the topic of government management:

 

“If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.”

 

Indeed.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST10yr 2.74-2.96%

SPX 1

DAX 8

USD 80.91-81.81

Yen 96.21-98.56

Gold 1

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

The Desert - COD

 

The Desert - vp 8 22


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 22, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or 0.72% downside to 1631 and 1.59% upside to 1669.  

                                                                                                                           

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.55 from 2.53
  • VIX  closed at 15.94 1 day percent change of 6.91%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Summit, thr. Aug. 24
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Aug. 17, est. 330k (pr. 320k)
  • 8:58am: Markit U.S. PMI Prelim., Aug., est. 54.2 (pr. 53.2)
  • 9am: House Price Index M/m, June, est. 0.6% (prior 0.7%)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Aug. (prior -5)
  • 10am: Leading Eco. Indicators, July, est. 0.5% (prior 0.0%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Aug., est. 6 (prior 6)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 2036-2043 sector
  • 11am: U.S. to announce sizes of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y notes
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 5Y TIPS in reopening
  • 2pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Orlando, Fla.

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama speaks on improving value of higher education for middle class during bus tour through N.Y. and Penn.
    • 11am: Airlines for America qtrly briefing on U.S. passenger airlines’ YTD financial, operational results, performance
    • 2pm: Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey briefs foreign media on U.S. national security strategy
    • 4pm: Treasury Sec. Jack Lew speaks to Commonwealth Club of Calif.

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • FBI said to hunt for criminal acts in JPMorgan energy inquiry
  • Wells Fargo said to eliminate 2,300 mortgage-production jobs
  • Microsoft says bribery investigation includes Russia, Pakistan
  • EU said to weigh curb on collateral asset reuse in repo trades
  • China’s manufacturing gains on stronger domestic demand
  • Everbright Securities president Xu quits after trading error
  • Yahoo tops Google in U.S. for July web traffic, ComScore says
  • Hoover maker aims to turn bankrupt Oreck profitable next year
  • Tesla CEO weighs overseas plants for mass-market electric car
  • Potash rift seen lasting as Asia sales said to rile Uralkali
  • JSW seeks to sell U.S. plant as demand revives
  • Euro-area services output grows for first time in 19 months
  • GM’s Opel revamps insignia to regain customers
  • FHFA should develop policies to govern settlements: report

 EARNINGS:

 AM EARNS

    • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 6:30am, $0.29 - Preview
    • Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.52
    • Children’s Place (PLCE) 6:30am, $(0.53)
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:29am, $0.57
    • GameStop (GME) 8:30am, $0.04
    • Hormel Foods (HRL) 6am, $0.45
    • Patterson (PDCO) 7am, $0.48
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 8:25am, $0.93
    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, $(1.07)
    • Toro (TTC) 8:30am, $0.59

PM EARNS

    • Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, $(0.28)
    • Aruba Networks (ARUN) 4:03pm, $0.11
    • Autodesk (ADSK) 4:01pm, $0.42
    • Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.64
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:03pm, $0.19
    • Mentor Graphics (MENT) 4:05pm, $0.17
    • Micros Systems (MCRS) 4:02pm, $0.62
    • Nordson (NDSN) 4:30pm, $1.05
    • Pandora Media (P) 4:02pm, $0.02 - Preview
    • Solera Holdings (SLH) 4:07pm, $0.66

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Rebounds From Two-Week Low on China Manufacturing Growth   
  • Gold Rout Seen Bottoming by Analysts as China Buys: Commodities
  • Russian Urals Set to Lose Iraq-Attack Premium: Energy Markets
  • Toyota Said to Raise Steel Prices for Suppliers by 12 Percent
  • Gold Rises in London as Bearish Bets Drop Amid Sign of Bottoming
  • Corn Declines as U.S. Yields Boost Outlook; Soybeans Retreat
  • Rubber Jumps as China’s Manufacturing Improves, Yen Weakens
  • Gold’s Luster Burnished by Currency Collapse in Emerging Markets
  • Indonesia Cuts Palm Oil Export-Tax to Boost Sales as Prices Drop
  • FBI Said to Hunt for Criminal Acts in JPMorgan Energy Probe
  • Rebar Falls to Lowest in Two Weeks as Mills Increase Selling
  • Commodities May Decline 11% on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
  • Tin Smelters in Indonesia to Start Trading Through Exchanges
  • Copper Advances as Manufacturing Unexpectedly Expands in China

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9A

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.64%
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