This note was originally published August 15, 2013 at 11:04 in Macro
POSITION: 11 LONGS, 3 SHORTS @Hedgeye
People are always asking me why about this and why about that – “if you are so bullish on US #GrowthAccelerating and #RatesRising, why aren’t you longer?” Well, the 1st answer is that I’m as imperfect as the rest of you at this, and the 2nd is I like to buyem when they’re really red.
What’s fascinating about today’s selloff (taking us -2.8% from the all-time closing high in SPY – I know, end of the world type stuff) is that it came on precisely the opposite reason 2013 stock market bears have been begging for (slowing growth).
In terms of how we score it (NSA rolling jobless claims) this was the best employment #GrowthAccelerating print of the year (see our Macro note on employment today for details). Rates ripped on that and now, evidently, #RatesRising for the right reasons is the new bear case for stocks.
Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:
- Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1691, then 1709
- Immediate-term TRADE support = 1659
- Intermediate-term TREND support = 1631
In other words, I cover shorts and buyem here. And I don’t know what else to tell you other than that.
Enjoy your summer Thursday,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer