With table revenue per day over HK$900m (HK$916m, up 29% YoY), Macau is indeed off to a strong start. Our full month projection remains in the range of +14-18% in terms of YoY growth. Our process is to project revenues prior to the start of the month using a sequential, seasonally adjusted model and then again using a weekly model. Both approaches are producing the same growth rate. While the growth rate is slower than the past few months, the underlying demand fundamentals are consistent. Hold, comparisons, and the calendar always impact YoY growth differently each month.
In terms of market share, the biggest takeaways (albeit early to make any definitive conclusions) are that MPEL is back on track after a couple of share loss months and MGM and LVS have resumed their upward share momentum. We’ve been assured that MPEL’s recent VIP volume share declines are not sustainable and August’s start is certainly a first step in proving that theory out. MGM continues to impress us with improving operations. The ramp of SCC is mostly responsible for LVS’s ascension.
In terms of stocks, we remain bullish on MGM (Trade and Trend), MPEL (Trade, Trend, and Tail), and LVS (Trade, Trend, and Tail). Despite a slower start to August, we are warming up to Galaxy as well.
