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MPEL YOUTUBE

In preparation for MPEL's F2Q 2013 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.

 

 

STUDIO CITY

  • "Studio City, our cinematically-themed mass market focused integrated casino resort, remains on track to open in mid 2015. The project remains on time and on budget with expected design and construction costs remaining at $2.04 billion...total spending for 2013 is between $800 million to $1 billion."

COD MASS 

  • "We continue to improve the two major signature club area on improving their service. So you'll note that in the next two quarters some improvement in this premium mass area with nice improvement as well as well as the service level that we are bringing to the property."

COD GAMING MARGINS

  • "I think the primary driver, and I think there is room, is what's happening on the gaming floor and what's happening with the mix of business. Given our success in the mass market business and that, the strength in that segment overall, we do see a potential for favorable mix shift over time, which will drive blended margin higher."
    • "First, I think, gaming floor, we continue to see a positive trend in terms of hold percentage on the floor as well as absolute revenue."
    • "I think our retail area, although it's relatively small compared to the neighbor, it's already up to a level which is quite comparable with the neighbors. So I think with this kind of improvement in our positioning in the last few quarters, it has started to pay off in terms of this non-gaming higher margin EBITDA contribution. So we hope that that trend continue and you'll see some more improvement in the next few quarters."

COD NON-GAMING MARGINS

  • "While not a major contributor to the overall results, that's sustainable going forward."

COD PHASE 3

  • “We are optimistic that we'll break ground before the end of the year.

WAGE GROWTH

  • "As your modeling should anticipate, as of April, it increased fairly market wide of a 5% wage rate increase in your model and that's not inconsistent with what we experienced last year as well despite incremental supply in the market, incremental staffing needs across the market. So this year, we think 5% is very manageable and one that we expect to be consistent throughout the year. But I would encourage you to flag that in your models going into the next quarter."

PHILIPPINES RESORT

  • "Will open in mid-2014."
  • "In this quarter, our pre-opening expense of about $1.9 million. About two-thirds of that was Philippines. As that project ramps up over the course of the year into the mid single digits and then subsequent from that into 2014, but that will increase over the course of this year."
  • "Our view is that the tax situation will be resolved favorably. So no change in our expectation of ROIC."

CAPEX

  • "But if we exclude Phase 3, we'll have CapEx in the next quarter of something in the $225 million range and wrapping up by about $25 million in the subsequent quarter and then closer to $400 million in the fourth quarter. So that includes Studio City as well obviously."

3Q NON-OPERATING GUIDANCE

  • "Total depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $90 million to $95 million, corporate expense is expected to come in at $20 million to $22 million, and consolidated net interest expense attributable to MCE is expected to be approximately $40 million to $42 million, which includes finance leased interest of $10.8 million relating to the Philippines development and approximately $11.8 million of interest associated with Studio City. This reflects approximately $6 million of capitalized interest related primarily to Studio City."
    • [Interest expense] "The gross amount should be a good number going forward as a run rate, approximate run rate. I anticipate that our – the amount of capitalized interest that we have would go up over the course of the year, but the number we provided for Q2, I think, is a solid number and then perhaps declining a bit over the remainder of the year."

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 6, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 40 points or 1.94% downside to 1674 and 0.40% upside to 1714.             

                                                                                                                  

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.34 from 2.33
  • VIX closed at 11.84 1 day percent change of -1.17%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: ICSC retail sales
  • 8:30am: Trade Deficit, June, est. -$43.2b (prior -$45b)
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly retail sale
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Eco Optimism, Aug., est. 47.5 (prior 47.1)
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, June, est. 3.895m (prior 3.828m)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $4.75b-$5.75b debt in 2018-2019 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3Y notes
  • 4:30pm: API crude, oil product inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama travels to Phoenix to give remarks on middle class homeownership, then to Burbank, Calif., where he’ll appear on “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno”
    • FDA Dep. Commissioner Michael Taylor delivers remarks at Institute of Medicine discussion of caffeine in dietary supplements, other foods, 9am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Australia cuts rate to record 2.5% as currency strengthens
  • Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos to buy Washington Post for $250m
  • IBM furloughs U.S. workers of hardware group to cut costs
  • Sony rejects Loeb push to sell part of entertainment unit
  • Time Warner Cable makes a-la-carte proposal in CBS dispute
  • Icahn bought 4m Dell shrs on Aug. 1; holds 156.5m shares
  • Revlon to purchase Colomer Group from CVC for $660m
  • Paulson & Co. said to gain in July as recovery fund recoups loss
  • FBI finds vulnerabilities in mkt-moving govt. reports: WSJ
  • Italian contraction slows as recession lasts record 2 yrs

EARNINGS:

AM EARNS:

    • Aircastle (AYR) 7:30am, $0.33
    • American Realty Capital Properties (ARCP) 6:25am, $0.19
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 7am, $0.44
    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) 8am, $0.56
    • Ares Capital (ARCC) 8am, $0.39
    • BreitBurn Energy Partners LP (BBEP) 8am, $0.13
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) 8am, $0.31
    • Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 6am, $0.52
    • Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) 6am, $0.97
    • CVS Caremark (CVS) 7am, $0.96
    • Denbury Resources (DNR) 7:30am, $0.36
    • Diebold (DBD) 8am, $0.27
    • Dish Network (DISH) 6am, $0.53
    • Dominion Resources (D) 7:30am, $0.65
    • Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:30am, $0.98 - Preview
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:25am, $0.54
    • Fossil Group (FOSL) 6:55am, $0.93
    • Harman International Industries (HAR) 8am, $0.86
    • Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.92
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) 6:51am, $1.23
    • Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT) 7am, $0.75
    • Inergy (NRGY) 7:45am, $0.05
    • Inergy Midstream (NRGM) 7:45am, $0.10
    • IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) 7:30am, $2.14
    • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) 7am, $1.18
    • Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) 8:30am, $(0.23)
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 6:45am, $0.27
    • Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) 8am, $0.34
    • MGM Resorts International (MGM) 8:30am, $0.01
    • Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.49
    • Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) 7:30am, $1.39
    • Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM) 6:30am, $0.89
    • Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) 8:30am, $1.62
    • OfficeMax (OMX) 7am, $0.03
    • Parker Hannifin Corp (PH) 7:30am, $1.96
    • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 6:30am, $1.75 - Preview
    • Rowan Cos Plc (RDC) 8am, $0.55
    • Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP) 8:30am, $0.78
    • Saputo Inc (SAP CN) 11:59am, $0.73
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) 7am, $2.43
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $1.28
    • Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30am, $0.32
    • Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) 8am, $0.37
    • Spirit Aerosystems Holdings (SPR) 7:30am, $0.50
    • Starwood Property Trust (STWD) 7:30am, $0.47
    • Tenet Healthcare (THC) 7:30am, $0.71
    • Textainer Group Holdings (TGH) 9am, $0.95
    • Tidewater Inc (TDW) 7:51am, $0.76
    • TransDigm Group (TDG) 7am, $1.84
    • Zoetis (ZTS) 7am, $0.36 – Preview

PM EARNS:

    • Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) 4:01pm, $(0.09)
    • Avis Budget Group (CAR) 4:15pm, $0.51
    • BioMed Realty Trust (BMR) 4:47pm, $0.39
    • CF Industries Holdings (CF) 4:05pm, $7.61 - Preview
    • CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) 4:15pm, $0.74
    • Computer Sciences (CSC) 4:15pm, $0.67
    • DaVita HealthCare Partners (DVA) 4:01pm, $1.84
    • DigitalGlobe Inc (DGI) 4pm, $(0.26)
    • EOG Resources (EOG) 5:05pm, $1.73
    • Exelixis (EXEL) 4:15pm, $(0.30)
    • First Solar (FSLR) 4:02pm, $0.53
    • Genpact (G) 4pm, $0.25
    • Gulfport Energy Corp (GPOR) 4pm, $0.13
    • Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) 4:01pm, $1.51
    • Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) 4:04pm, $0.07
    • Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) 5:26pm, $0.71
    • Nuance Communications (NUAN) 4:01pm, $0.32
    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 4:30pm, $0.60
    • RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) 4:30pm, $0.58
    • Rosetta Resources (ROSE) 4pm, $0.97
    • SandRidge Energy (SD) 4:05pm, $(0.04)
    • Sotheby’s (BID) 4pm, $1.37
    • Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) 4pm, $0.35 - Preview
    • Two Harbors Investment (TWO) 4:05pm, $0.31
    • Vivus (VVUS) 4pm, $(0.41) - Preview
    • Walt Disney (DIS) 4:15pm, $1.01 - Preview
    • Zillow (Z) 4:02pm, $(0.11)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Decline as Demand Slows
  • p Commodities Market, Industry News »             
  • Palladium Shortages Spur Bullish Hedge-Fund Wagers: Commodities
  • Gold Slides Below $1,300 as Investors Weigh Stimulus Outlook
  • Palm Inventories in Malaysia Seen Staying at Lowest in Two Years
  • Copper Rises as German Factory Orders Stoke Rebound Speculation
  • Tanker-Rate Slump Signals Retreat in U.S. Oil Imports: Freight
  • Corn Declines to Lowest Since 2010 on U.S. Crop Progress Report
  • Tin Backwardation Widens as Top Supplier Indonesia Curbs Exports
  • China to Sell 500,000 Tons of Soybeans in Auctions This Week
  • BullionVault Survey Says 37% of Buyers Kept Assets Over Year
  • Italian Oil May Flow as Offshore Drilling Ban Ends: Bull Case
  • S. African Corn Trade Risks Staple-Food Supply: Chart of the Day
  • Coal at Risk as Global Lenders Drop Financing on Climate: Energy
  • Gold to Gain as Output Languishes on Spending Cuts, WGC Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


GENTING SINGAPORE 2Q 2013 CONFERENCE CALL NOTES

Low hold impacted Q2 results but hold-adjusted EBITDA was in-line with Street

 

 

CONF CALL 

 

  • Encouraged by VIP volumes but hold was low
  • 2Q VIP rolling volume +29%
  • Gained share in mass market
  • 2Q Mass gaming revenue +19%
  • S'pore tourist arrivals projected to slow in coming years
  • Monitoring situation in Japan

Q & A

  • Japan:  optimistic but the clarity is not there yet.  1st piece of legislation may be passed by end of 2013 - will know where the IR will be set up.  2nd piece of legislation that may be passed in 2014 will have more details on the structure/regulation on IR.
  • 2Q Hold-adjusted EBITDA:  S$364MM
  • Have earned more than enough to pay the interest on perpetual securities
  • Trade receivables didn't increase despite surge in VIP volume - expanded database and continued to gain loyalty from customers
  • July credit outlook:  no changes yet but still cautious
  • Severe haze impact on EBITDA:  not significant
  • 2Q GGR share:  47%
  • 2Q RC volume share:  49%
  • 2Q Mass/slot share:  47-48%
  • 2Q VIP win rate:  2.5%
  • Net gaming revenue breakout:  30% VIP; 70% mass
  • No increase in commissions
  • Long-term solution to labor issue:  increase productivity; govt helping them with new grants to help with the productivity
  • 3rd IMA:  has not impacted VIP business
  • Combined S'pore mass market:  no revenue growth;  with new regulations put in place, do not believe they will see growth in this segment
    • Local visitors will trend down
    • Overseas visitor growth slowing down
  • Cannot compare with Macau
  • Is S$17BN RC volume pace sustainable?  No guarantees.
  • Mass market revenue growth (QoQ) : low single digit (marginal)
  • Pachislot machine market: US$13 billion
  • Premium mass vs VIP:  VIP (+$100k players), premium mass ($20-100k players)
    • Increased promotional spending on premium mass (free hotel room, etc)
  • Cost cuts:  have reduced employee count by 800 since beginning of year; payroll is biggest expense item
  • Gross VIP/mass gaming revenue mix:  50/50
  • VIP volume in 2Q 2012:  leadership transition did not have an impact since it was in Q4 2012
  • USS ship:  10k average visitation ($83 average spend);  MLP 9k average visitation 
  • Korea:  need to open to locals in order to consider investment there
  • More cautious than Q1 outlook?  track record has always been extremely cautious.  Same level of caution in Q2. 
  • Long-term 15-16MM visitor goal:  thinks that number will come down
  • Mobile bookings increased 20% QoQ
  • Overall visitation has slowed but it hasn't been significant

Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Beware of Beijing

If you weren’t worried about China, now would be a good time to start. 

 

China has been the main driver of growth in the region, accounting for nearly 38% of all Asian GDP last year.  Now the Chinese government is acknowledging that growth is in a downturn, publicly forecasting growth in the 7% range – well below the double digits of only three years ago. 

 

Beware of Beijing - China Slowdown


China’s fixed capital formation grew like Topsy during the expansion years.  But many of these were empty make-work projects designed only to inflate GDP, leaving the country awash in unused airports, unfinished roads and office buildings – and in bank loans for these projects with no revenues.

 

China’s banks are a loudly ticking time bomb.  Their assets are bloated to an estimated 270% of GDP.  A huge percentage of those “assets” are already in creditor limbo, having secured roads and bridges and tunnels and airports to Nowhere.  China’s banks face a potential crisis as investment in major fixed asset projects declines amid eroding liquidity throughout the financial system.

 

Rising Rates should hit China’s markets too, pushing Asian rates higher.  This will clobber the region’s capital-intensive economies, many of which expanded capacity specifically to serve Chinese demand.  Rising rates – globally, but especially in the “safe haven” US Treasury market – coupled with a strong Dollar, should punish overvalued Asian currencies, sparking inflation, but in the context of economic decline.  This spells economic trouble, and the potential for social unrest.

 

Beware of Beijing - china1

 

Senior analyst and keen-eyed Asia watcher Darius Dale says Chinese policy makers are starting to appear less concerned about a possible domestic asset price bubble.  This could give them more flexibility in some kind of easy-money policy aimed at domestic stimulus.  Any such policy move is likely to be slow to be implemented, and much slower to take effect.  Dale cautions that massive debt rollovers generally sloweconomic growth by sucking liquidity out of the financial system, “diverting incremental credit from productive enterprises.”  Perhaps more crucial is the impact on a fragile economy, which can hamper the creation of a stable economic base by diverting liquidity away from marginally productive business, or from temporarily unproductive ones that are merely trying to weather the economic storm. 

 

Finally, any debt rollover China’s leaders may contemplate will almost surely not be offset by a significant increase in private savings.  Without China to fuel the engine, Asia’s economic racecar looks to be in for a long pit stop.

 

(Editor's note: This brief excerpt is from this weekend's Investing Ideas. This particular Hedgeye product is designed for savvy, longer-term investors looking for fresh, long-only stock ideas. Subscribers know immediately when one of our award-winning analysts uncovers a new idea or changes a current one. Please click here for more information.)


TSN - Great Quarter and Outlook

TSN reported impressive Q3 results, beating consensus EPS by $0.09 and recording record sales of $8.7B. The company is seeing the tailwinds of consumers that prefer the relative value of chicken versus other proteins; it has been able to pass on higher input costs to the consumer alongside higher chicken prices, which enhanced its chicken operating margin to 7% in the quarter.  

 

We like the stock on a pullback (it is up +4.2% intraday vs SPX -0.2%). Our quantitative set-up shows the stock in a bullish formation over the immediate term TRADE and intermediate term TREND durations.

 

TSN - Great Quarter and Outlook - vv. tyson

 

Alongside our call for a stronger USD, we see consumption continuing to pick up in the back half of the year, and expect the company’s food service business to benefit from acceleration in meals consumed away from home, especially around QSR promotions. We continue to like its ability to offset price swings through its diversity in protein offerings and geographic exposures and believe that its portfolio plays well in health and wellness trends (proteins over carbs). We expect solid Q4 performance from the company.

 

Guidance: maintains FY2014 sales of +3-4%, EPS +10%, and expects $500MM of lower feed costs.

 

TSN - Great Quarter and Outlook - food at home vs food away from home CPI

 

TSN - Great Quarter and Outlook - chicken breast

 

TSN - Great Quarter and Outlook - LEAN HOGS PRICES

 

TSN - Great Quarter and Outlook - live cattle prices

 

TSN - Great Quarter and Outlook - zzz. comm

 

-Matthew Hedrick


MGM YOUTUBE

In preparation for MGM's F2Q 2013 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.


 

CITYCENTER

  • "CityCenter's overall leverage is just above 5 times. Tremendous progress in the improvement of the capital structure at that joint venture."

MGM COTAI OPENING

  • "Remains on schedule for opening in the first half of 2016."

MD/MA/TORONTO

  • "In Maryland, we have been preparing our RFP for Prince George's County, which we will submit by the end of next week." 
  • "In Massachusetts, we are honored by Mayor Sarno's confidence in selecting MGM to bring a world-class urban resort to Springfield. This is an important milestone in the process as the project now seeks City Council approval after which a referendum is possible as early as July, and then ultimately, we will compete at the state level for the Western Region license."
  • "In Toronto, we and our partner, Cadillac Fairview, believe in our vision for an integrated resort in Toronto and we continue to work towards that development opportunity."

STRIP TRENDS

  • "Visitation to Las Vegas remained strong and macro trends are improving here helping to drive the recovery."
  • "It appears to us that Las Vegas, the market hit hardest by the recession, is nicely recovering and that its performance will likely outstrip the existing regional markets for the foreseeable future."
  • "Our luxury properties continue to lead the way in the market, driven by increased convention room nights and the continued success of the high-end casino business."
  • "Organizational changes were made to streamline international and national marketing teams to better service our customers and drive profitability."

STRIP REVPAR

  • "Room revenues and ADRs increased by about 2% in the quarter. While occupancy was down slightly, occupied room nights increased by 1% at our Strip properties as the remodeled rooms at the MGM Grand are now on line."
  • "We are seeing strong returns on our room remodel investments as evidenced by Bellagio and MGM Grand where we were able to maintain high occupancy levels and drive increased room rates."
  • "We always knew the second quarter would be a little bit easier comp."

CONVENTION OUTLOOK

  •  "Looking forward at the second quarter, we expect a strong convention calendar, which will drive RevPAR to be up approximately 2% year over year."
  • "The convention business in Las Vegas this year will be okay. It won't be great citywide, but next year is a big year citywide. So, when you have the kind of citywides we're predicting in 2014, that will accrue to the benefit of, of course, Mandalay, but also to the properties that need Mandalay to have that business Luxor, Excalibur and also because of the LVCBA Circus Circus. So the cores this year are doing well, but I would expect next year with a better convention business citywide that they will do better."
  • "On the convention side, of course, our leisure properties with significant convention space mainly sold out in peak season have a much easier time at raising rates."

MGM CHINA DIVIDENDS

  • "MGM China also put in place a regular dividend distribution policy for up to 35% of its annual profits to be paid semi-annually. The board will also consider, going forward, special dividends from time to time."

CAPEX/CORP EXPENSE/INTEREST EXPENSE

  • "Our wholly-owned domestic CapEx guidance for the year remains at roughly $350 million, and that includes the amounts for this year of the recently announced projects at Monte Carlo and New York-New York.  We expect corporate expense to continue to be in the $40 million to $45 million range per quarter and our stock compensation and depreciation expense in the second quarter is estimated to be consistent with the first quarter. We estimate that our gross interest expense for the second quarter will be approximately $220 million, which includes about $7 million in interest at MGM China and $8 million in non-cash amortization expense."

ARIA

  • "We continue to see growth in the food and beverage with a very strong quarter in catering and banquets driven by growth in the convention segment and recent dining enhancements to the property such as Javier's Mexican restaurant."

VDARA

  • "Vdara's EBITDA continues to improve as occupancy grows and is now approximately 86%. We are also finalizing construction plans to convert the Silk Road restaurant space into approximately 5,000 square feet of additional meeting and convention space. And we expect this to drive both occupancy and rate with completion scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year."

MANDARIN

  • "We've actually seen in the last few months some pickup particularly in the remaining Mandarin inventory in terms of sales."

MGM CHINA MASS

  • "We're encouraged to see not only our premium area such as our supreme and platinum lounges continue to perform well but also our general main floor product produced record results."

LV SEAT CAPACITY

  • "The seat capacities and especially in the summer is going to be up a few percent, which is very positive for us. Anything looking beyond two to three months, it's really hard to look at since the airlines are constantly changing their programs."

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