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This note was originally published July 22, 2013 at 17:10 in Consumer Staples

Kimberly-Clark reported 2Q EPS of $1.41 versus consensus $1.39 despite a miss on the top line. Management reaffirmed FY13 EPS guidance of $5.60-5.75. Per management, the impact of lower predicted sales growth is expected to be offset by higher cost savings and share repurchases.


We remain bearish on the name.






We believe the stock traded off today, despite the earnings beat, because of soft volumes in the U.S. and a looming miss or guide down in the back half of 2013. Management’s reiterated FY13 EPS guidance seems much, much less stable than it was three months ago; higher cost savings and share repurchases are set to fill the void being left by slower-than expected sales growth. With inflation sequentially accelerating and FX rates acting as a top-line headwind, we see downside risk to the company’s FY13 EPS estimates and would advise clients to continue to look elsewhere for exposure to consumer staples on the short side. We do not expect the market to pay 17x for earnings increasingly driven by cost savings and share repurchases. Below are the positives and negatives we took away from the quarter.



What we liked:

  • Emerging markets have sustained strong volume growth
  • The company is finding incremental cost savings (raised annual target by $50m to $250-350m) to drive EBIT growth
  • Operating margin expanded by 90 bps to year-over-year to 15.5% despite no sales growth and commodity inflation
  • KCI produced broad-based top line growth and operating margin expansion



What we didn’t like:

  • Organic sales growth was dragged lower by negative volume growth in developed markets, particularly the U.S., Australia, South Korea
  • U.S. personal care volumes declined despite negative product mix
  • Management highlighted increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment, FX, and oil prices
  • Big K-C I markets like Australia and South Korea experienced a slowdown in 2Q
  • Negative 2Q FCF growth (-2.1%) with EBIT growth slowing to 5.8% from 15.6% in 1Q13 and 8.1% in 2Q12 (mgmt says cash flow to improve in 2H13)
  • Valuation is rich – now important with increasing risk to the downside (or limited upside, at least) in earnings estimates
  • Oil prices holding above $100 per barrel could push cost inflation above mid-point of company expectations ($150-250 million)
  • FX rates holding current levels will likely result in EPS below mid-point of guided range



Rory Green

Senior Analyst


Morning Reads on Our Radar Screen

Takeaway: A look at some stories on Hedgeye's radar screen.

Keith McCullough – CEO

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Increases to Six-Year High July (via Bloomberg)

Pelosi Says It Would Be ‘Great’ for Woman to Be Fed Chair (via Bloomberg)

Iran Is Said to Want Direct Talks With U.S. on Nuclear Program (via NY Times)


Morning Reads on Our Radar Screen - bullbear


Howard Penney – Restaurants

Howard Schultz: I'm not losing any sleep over Dunkin' Donuts (via CNBC)


Josh Steiner – Financials

PICTURE: And the Honorable Jon Corzine roams free (via Twitter)

McCain on Watt: ‘Concerned’ (via Bloomberg)


Jonathan Casteleyn – Financials

Irrational to Slam $900 Billion Market Over Detroit (via Bloomberg)


Matt Hedrick – Macro

Greece Wins 2.5 Billion-Euro Aid Loan, Buying Time in Crisis (via Bloomberg)

July 26, 2013

July 26, 2013 - FRIDTR

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Onboard spending driving yield growth 


  • RCL posted a solid 4.5% (estimated) net onboard and other yield growth (in constant currency) in Q2.  According to management, excluding the Affinity error, net onboard and other yield would have grown 8.2%.  For comparison, CCL  reported a 0.5% net onboard and other yield (in constant currency) growth in FQ2.
  • As the chart below shows, one of the reasons why RCL could print such a high onboard number is because they have more room to grow, relative to the 2007 peak.
  • RCL’s onboard trend was seen fleetwide as US-sourced customers continue to spend well in the Caribbean and Europe.
  • For now, onboard and other yields will drive the top-line performance of both RCL and CCL as ticket yields are barely growing for RCL and significantly lower for CCL.


BBQ In Tokyo!

Client Talking Points


In case you were wondering what that smell is this morning, the Nikkei got barbequed last night. Japan down -3% as the Yen failed to breakdown this week post LDP elections. This is an interesting spot to buy the Nikkei now (we haven’t - yet). The Yen is now signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold (vs USD) in my model at 98.41 (a good spot to re-short the Yen too).


Well, what a big week it was for the Spaniards. Their alleged sky-high unemployment rate stopped going up for once (downtick from 27.2% to 26.3)%. Do we believe it? The IBEX did and is up +0.8% leading the gainers in what’s been a strong European Equity market for the last month. It will close above its 8099 TREND line too. 


Try as it may, even Down Dollar won't help the metals out this morning. "Dr. Copper" is leading the decline down -1% after failing at immediate-term TRADE resistance of $3.22 earlier in the week. On a related note, China is down for three straight days (Shanghai -10% year-to-date). That certainly doesn’t help the demand argument does it? Neither did the news from Caterpillar.

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.


Gaming, Leisure & Lodging sector head Todd Jordan says Melco International Entertainment stands to benefit from a major new European casino rollout.  An MPEL controlling entity, Melco International Development, is eyeing participation in a US$1 billion gaming project in Barcelona.  The new project, to be called “BCN World,” will start with a single resort with 1,100 hotel beds, a casino, and a theater.  Longer term, the objective is for BCN World to have six resorts.  The first property is scheduled to open for business in 2016. 


Health Care sector head Tom Tobin has identified a number of tailwinds in the near and longer term that act as tailwinds to the hospital industry, and HCA in particular. This includes: Utilization, Maternity Trends as well as Pent-Up Demand and Acuity. The demographic shift towards more health care – driven by a gradually improving economy, improving employment trends, and accelerating new household formation and births – is a meaningful Macro factor and likely to lead to improving revenue and volume trends moving forward.  Near-term market mayhem should not hamper this  trend, even if it means slightly higher borrowing costs for hospitals down the road. 

Three for the Road


Try and stop him. @KeithMcCullough is buying the damn dip. Actually don't try. Mucker's love for a market consensus hates cannot be stopped.



"It's true that the Federal Reserve faces a lot of political pressure and is unpopular in many circles." 

- Ben Bernanke 


$885,000,000: The amount UBS has agreed to pay Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to settle claims that it improperly sold them mortgage-backed securities during the housing bubble. 

Hell or High Water

This note was originally published at 8am on July 12, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Life is not easy for any of us. But what of that? We must have perseverance and above all confidence in ourselves. We must believe that we are gifted for something and that this thing must be attained.”

-Marie Curie


For those that haven’t been following the news reports from Alberta over the past month, the province and in particular its largest city Calgary, have been devastated by floods.  I’ve been up in Calgary, Alberta over the last couple of days meeting with clients and companies and the perseverance to rebuild and recover has been nothing short of amazing.


The most significant tourist and cultural event in Calgary every year is the Calgary Stampede.  It is a combination of an outdoor fair and championship rodeo, and attracts many hundreds of thousands of visitors.  Fittingly, the slogan of this year’s Stampede is “Come Hell or High Water”, which is an acknowledgement to what the city has gone through to begin the recovery from devastating flooding.


Once a century floods are what we in the risk management business call tail risk events.  They are low probability events that occur rarely but have an outsized relative impact.  The reality of tail risks, or black swans as Nassim Taleb calls them, is that they actually occur much more often than normally distributed risk model would project.


Back to the Global Macro grind . . .


Yesterday we hosted a call with George Friedman, the CEO and founder of Stratfor, a veritable private CIA.  With an army of global contacts and human intelligence collectors, they are rightfully considered among the best and most accurate assessors of global geo-political risks.  As a result, their clients include major government organizations, corporations and global asset allocators.


One of the key ideas that Friedman raised on his call was that despite the recent complacency in European equity and debt markets, things may not end well in Europe.  From his perspective, which we would agree with, the key political issue in Europe is that the grand experiment of the Euro has really only benefitted Germany.   The value of the Euro has supported the 40%+ of exports that drive German GDP, but has failed the rest of Europe.  Friedman thinks we may be in the early days of mass popular unrest in Europe across economically disadvantaged European nations outside of Germany.


Next week we will be releasing our quarterly themes, which is how we quantify the most important factors that are, and will be, driving markets and asset returns over the next couple of quarters.  Our Q2 themes were growth accelerating, strong dollar, and emerging outflows.   These largely played out in spades, particularly emerging market outflows, the extent of which surprised many market participants in Q2.  We added the etf EEM, which is a proxy for the emerging markets equities, as a short idea to our Best Ideas product on April 23rd. Since then the EEM is down more than 10%.


On Monday at 1pm eastern we will be hosting our Q3 Themes call, and while I don’t want to want to steal all of the thunder of that call, our Q3 Themes are as follows:


1.   #DebtDeflation – This theme analyzes the massive build up of debt globally and then looks at debt by sector to assess the outlook over the coming months.  Broadly speaking, you don’t want to be long bonds in the TREND duration.  Even if gentlemen prefer bonds, we don’t.


2.   #AsianContagion – Our Senior Asia Analyst Darius “Sunny D” Dale has done an outstanding job parsing through the Asian economies over the last eighteen months.  This theme primarily looks at the intermediate impact of Japan and China across Asian economies more broadly.  By and large, as Chinese economic growth goes, so goes growth across Asia.


3.   #RatesRising – This theme has been and will likely continue to have the most meaningful impact on U.S. markets as we’ve seen over the past six weeks with rates breaking out to the upside and devastating the bond markets.


In the Chart of the Day, we’ve borrowed a chart from the Q3 Themes presentation of the high yield index and the potential impact of a reversion to the mean in bonds.  As the chart shows, high yield is well below its 10-year average yield of 9.6%.  Even if we exclude the anomalous period of 2008 – 2009, in which rates spiked, that average is at 8.6% and well above current levels.


Our research shows that rates reverting to more normal levels won’t actually impede growth, and thus equity market returns.  In fact, the best U.S. economic growth rates often occur when the 10-year yield is in the 4 – 6% range.  The bond and gold markets, of course, fare much, much worse in a rising rate environment. 


In particular, gold has surprised people to the downside this year.  Many gold bugs have argued to us that with the recent correction in gold, now is no time to sell.  In reality, the facts tell a different story.  Gold will continue to underperform in an environment of rising rates and a strong dollar.


Our correlation analysis tells us that the other key factor driving gold is the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet.  In fact, the correlation is over 0.90 on an r-squared basis (so very high).  To the extent that the rate of change in the Federal Reserve balance slows, or god forbid declines, it could well be the death knell for gold and gold bugs.


We hope you can join us for our theme call on Monday.


Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows:


UST 10yr 2.42-2.77%

SPX 1634-1681

VIX 13.15-15.92

USD 82.52-83.93

Oil 105.84-110.73

Gold 1210-1312


Keep your head up and stick on the ice,


Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research


Hell or High Water - HY EL


Hell or High Water - Virtual Portfolio

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