prev

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD

Takeaway: The rate of improvement in the labor market slowed notably this past week, but we're not going to get excited by one week of data.

Slack Sails

This past week, rolling NSA initial claims were 8.8% lower than the prior year. This marks a decelerating rate of improvement vs the prior week, when rolling NSA claims were better by 10.6%. On a single week basis, NSA claims were 0.8% lower than the previous year, a sharp deceleration vs the prior 9 prints of: -9.9%, -13.3%, -9.4%, -9.2%, -7.7%, -11.7%, -9.4%, -7.6% and -8.0%. 

 

A possible explanation is that we're eclipsing the auto plant closings, which create significant NSA volatility. Recall that this year, due to heavy demand, there were far fewer auto plant shutdowns than in the corresponding periods last year. That said, the auto dynamic is a two-week phenonemon, so it wouldn't explain the deviation from the trend we've been seeing the last 9 weeks.

 

Bear in mind that in less than six weeks we'll shift out of the seasonally-adjusted data headwind period into the data tailwind period, which will last six months from September through February, 2014.

 

The Data

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims rose 9k to 343k from 334k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 2k to 336k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were higher by 7k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -1.25k WoW to 345.25k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -8.8% lower YoY, which is a sequential deterioration versus the previous week's YoY change of -10.6%

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 1

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 2

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 3

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 4

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 5

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 6

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 7

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 8

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 9

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 10

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 11

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 12

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 13

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 19

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 14

 

Yield Spreads

The 2-10 spread rose 4 basis points WoW to 223 bps. 3Q13TD, the 2-10 spread is averaging 193 bps, which is higher by 22 bps relative to 2Q13.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 15

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STILL GOOD, BUT LESS GOOD - 16

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 


CAKE – HEADLINE NUMBERS DECEIVE

CAKE remains on the Hedgeye best ideas list as a LONG.

 

The company reported disappointing results relative to expectations yesterday, but the headline numbers look worse than the underlying fundamentals would suggest. 

 

CAKE reported 2Q13 EPS results that were $0.03 lower than consensus along with a slight top line miss of -0.73%.  Same-store sales also fell short of expectations (+0.8% versus +1.7% consensus), as Cheesecake Factory comparable sales (0.9% versus +1.8% consensus) and Grand Lux Cafe comparable sales (+0.1% versus +0.7% consensus) both disappointed.

 

Management cited weather and slower industry trends as the two main drivers of weaker sales than expected in the quarter.  We don’t like to see anyone pull the weather card, but CAKE’s reasoning holds more legitimacy than that of some of its peers as its restaurants struggled to utilize their patio space at levels seen in the past. 

 

While industry trends are slowing, CAKE’s comparable sales have outpaced the industry for at least 18 months and we expect this trend to continue.  Although 3Q13 should be challenging due to slowing industry trends and a tough comp, we don’t see any fundamental issues within the business.  We expect sales to rebound in 4Q13 and carry on into 2014.  Management acknowledged that they will not make any desperate or unadvised attempts to boost sales in 2H13. 

 

Rather, they will continue to focus on the core of the business and building the brand for the long-term through new restaurants (at “A+” sites), menu innovation, quality food, and high service standards.

 

Below are some of our thoughts on 2Q13 results.

 

 

What We Liked

  • Increasing the quarterly dividend by 17%
  • Plan to repurchase up to $125 million worth of shares in 2H13
  • Full-year development plans remain on track to open 8-10 new restaurants
  • Anticipate a 50bps year-over-year improvement in FY13 operating margin
  • Expect full-year cost of sales to be lower than previously forecast due to moderate commodity cost inflation and favorable dairy prices
  • Management appears unfazed by the disappointing 2Q13 numbers and remains committed to their core business values

 

Red Flags

  • 2Q13 traffic was down -0.8%
  • Management lowered full-year EPS guidance down to $2.10-$2.15 from $2.12-$2.18
  • Softening industry trends and a difficult year-over-year comp are likely to be headwinds in 3Q13
  • Labor and other operating costs were up 10bps and 30bps year-over-year, respectively 

 

CAKE – HEADLINE NUMBERS DECEIVE - CAKE MONEY

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 


CASUAL DINING SHORTS

We suspect that many casual dining stocks will face a long, hot summer.

 

While we reported on the tough June sales numbers in our “Casual Dining Double Dip” note two weeks ago, the results from both CAKE and PNRA are adding some perspective around the reality that the casual dining space is in a tough spot.

 

 

RRGB – Remains on the Hedgeye Best Ideas list as a SHORT.


The notion that RRGB is going to significantly outpace the rest of the casual dining space and show a significant improvement in traffic seems far-fetched.  RRGB is accelerating spending on programs that we believe will not drive the desired traffic and will ultimately result in an earnings shortfall.

 

While our original thesis suggested that the big miss could come in 3Q13, the current industry trends suggest that 2Q13 will likely come in short of expectations.  At the very least, we foresee guidance for the balance of 2013 being reduced.

 

 

EAT – Chili’s is not immune to the industry slowdown.


Similar to RRGB, we suspect that EAT will also fall victim to a subpar summer.  We like the long-term vision that EAT’s management team laid out at a recent analyst meeting, but…

 

Unfortunately, over the intermediate-term TREND, the company faces numerous issues.  Chili’s is not only part of an industry that is in secular decline, but its largest competitor (DRI) is desperate for increased traffic and will use discounting as its weapon of choice.

 

It is difficult for us to see how EAT will be able to report numbers that the street will be happy with.  We will be publishing an earnings preview on EAT to further outline what we believe the recent quarter may look like.

 

Other names in the basket of shorts should include TXRH, DRI, and BLMN.

 

 

CASUAL DINING SHORTS - BBox11

CASUAL DINING SHORTS - BBox2

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

PNK 2Q 2013 REPORT CARD

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance

 

 

OVERALL

  • In-line:  The bottom line missed expectations but hold played a material role.  With the stock down 9% into the print and the quarter better than bad, a strong feeling of relief has emerged.  PNK did exclude a whopping $17.2 million in one-time charges which seems excessive.

LAKE CHARLES

  • SAME:  In the 1st half of 2Q, they completed 1st phase of room renovation (5% of rooms available).  2nd phase of renovation will begin in Fall 2013.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "In Lake Charles, we've been performing an extensive room renovation program with approximately 16% of year-over-year room nights out of service. This is particularly impactful on our weekends. The good news is our newly refurbished guestrooms are terrific, and our guests love what we are doing." 

ST. LOUIS

  • BETTER:  Margins and revenues were above reduced expectations.  Construction disruption was lower than expected.  Both properties continue to be cost contained.  River City hotel remain on track to open by Labor Day.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "In St. Louis, we are on the homestretch of our $82 million expansion....We continue to look for ways to grow the market by leveraging our existing assets, such as the Four Seasons, where we increased casino guestroom utilization by 43% over prior year. And we await the completion of new assets with the Event Center at River City opening in June and the hotel coming online in late September."

BELTERRA

  • SAME:  We believe low table hold impacted EBITDA by $1MM.  Even in a heightened promotional environment, the property has been pretty disciplined in costs.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "In Belterra, we believe we have the right strategy in place to maximize our position in a market that continues to experience increasing gaming options. We remain focused on differentiating Belterra with its resort destination positioning and have recently completed an extensive buffet remodel, are in the process of building a new Stadium Sports Bar and we'll undertake a hotel renovation project this year."

CONSUMER TRENDS

  • SAME:  Spend per visit remain at historical levels while trips declined.  However, July is shaping up to be better than 2Q, although weaker than earlier in the year.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "In terms of guest behavior, in January and February, we saw that trips declined at a greater rate than spend per trip. Meaning people came less often, but their spend was pretty much in line with historical play levels. In March and then into April, both trips and spend patterns came back close to prior-year levels."

L'AUBERGE BATON ROUGE

  • SAME:  Adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.7% vs 13.9% QoQ.  Repeat visitation was 55%.  Hotel occupancy continued to be in the high 90s.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  
    • "Guest acquisition continues to be very strong with over 27,000 people visiting the property for the first time during the quarter. Repeat visitation is also very strong, with over 50% of those who have visited returning for a second trip. The hotel continues to be a good story, with occupancy now over 90% and RevPAR increasing over 30% since opening.  We're very pleased in the progress made by L'Auberge, Baton Rouge over the quarter and are confident of the ramp-up of that facility as we continue to go through the rest of the year."
    • "You should continue to see improved operating margins there as time goes on. As long as we continue to build the revenue we'll have corresponding margins with that revenue."

COLUMBUS IMPACT

  • BETTER:  Ohio competition on Belterra continues to affect visitation but impact from Horseshoe has been less than expected. 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We continue to see the impact of new competition in Columbus, affecting visitation. In terms of the Horseshoe Cincinnati opening in March, it's still too early to quantify but thus far the impact has been muted."

RIVER DOWNS

  • SAME:  will open 2Q 2014; plan for 1,600 terminals
  • PREVIOUSLY:  
    • "On River Downs, demolition of our grandstand and the other older facilities is complete and we have begun construction of the new facilities with a scheduled opening in the second quarter of 2014."
    • "The heavy spending will start going into the third quarter in reality. And really the fourth and first quarter will be the bulk of it, the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year with the property opening in the second quarter of 2014."

AC LAND SALE

  • SAME:  Transaction is expected to close by the end of 3Q 2013
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "It relates to the NOL being created, yes, that will happen as soon as the transaction gets consummated. And our expectations are that that will happen in the third quarter of this year."

LEVERAGE

  • SAME:  Proceeds from Lake Charles will be used to pay down debt - lowering the leverage ratio 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We think that we will be able to de-lever pretty quickly. Not only will we, following capital expenditures both in Lake Charles and River Downs, will we have cash flow to actually pay down debt. But obviously those -- our cash flow base is growing, both by virtue of Baton Rouge maturing as well as River Downs and Lake Charles adding to that base. So we have talked publicly about our targets between 3.5 and 5 times of leverage. We think that we will get there relatively quickly at a faster pace than would be normal because of the dynamics that I just talked about. And really our goal is to get to 4 times or lower within a few years."

PNK 2Q 2013 CONFERENCE CALL NOTES

A better than bad quarter combined with strong margins reported at ASCA should provide a good environment for the stock today.


 

"We have entered into a definitive agreement to sell the Ameristar Casino Lake Charles development project to Golden Nugget and are pleased that the consideration we expect to receive will recuperate a vast majority of the capital invested in the project. In St. Louis, the Lumiere Place Casino and Hotel and Four Seasons sale process is also progressing rapidly."

 

"We are confident we can achieve at least $40 million of synergies and efficiencies of scale between the two companies (ASCA/PNK) and hope to meaningfully exceed that target."

 

-Anthony Sanfilippo, CEO of PNK

 

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Having Golden Nugget next to L'Auberge in Lake Charles will be a great outcome; will bring some customers from Texas market
  • Expect to close ASCA acquisition in early August 
  • Expect to exceed $40MM in synergies, even after Lumiere and Lake Charles sales
  • July has rebounded from May/June performance but not as strong as March/April #s; July is trending above 2Q levels
  • Spend per visit is in-line with historical levels; trips declined though
  • L'Auberge Baton Rouge:  Repeat visitation is strong: 55% returning; Hotel occupancy continue to be in the high 90s
  • L'Auberge Lake Charles:  1st half of 2Q they completed 1st phase of room renovation (5% of rooms available).  2nd phase of renovation will begin in fall 2013.  If you normalize hold, Lake Charles had one of the top 5 quarters of all time.
  • Belterra:  Ohio competition continues to affect visitation but impact from Horseshoe has been less than expected
  • New Orleans:  continue to see operating improvements
  • Focus on cost containment have offset revenue weakness
  • River Downs: will open 2Q 2014
  • River City:  hotel will open by Labor Day; on budget and on schedule

Q & A

  • Golden Nugget Lake Charles:  fair outcome of sale
  • Lumiere sale:  a lot of interest in the property (multiple parties); expect further information to share in the next few weeks
  • Trips lower YoY:  Midwest more pronounced than down South but pretty much across the portfolio
  • St. Louis margins:  bullish on mgmt there; Lumiere and River City both run very well 
  • Belterra:  recently opened a buffet and 3rd Stadium concept; very confident property is competing well with new competition in the region; heightened promotional environment; pretty disciplined in costs
  • Proceeds from Lake Charles will be used to pay down debt; leverage ratio will be lower as a result of this
  • Leverage ratio:  will have robust cash flow to pay down debt
  • Houston is underpenetrated
  • ACDL Vietnam: property scheduled to open tonight on Ho Tram Strip; cautiously optimistic; highly unlikely PNK will participate in capital call
  • Baton Rouge:  sees further margin improvement; hotel is executed well
  • 2Q NOL:  $270MM, not including impact out of Atlantic City; should end up around $500MM
  • Lumiere NOL tax base: $400MM 
  • Weak consumer environment:  impact more coming from lower tiers
  • Corporate expense run rate:  $5M to mid $5MM

Growth Signals?

Client Talking Points

US DOLLAR

Our intermediate-term TREND support line of $81.63 held and the US Dollar had a good day yesterday. Commodities? No, they did not fare as well. Incidentally, they aren’t having a good morning today either. This keeps the bullish US growth theme intact and moving along. Exactly what we want to see.

OIL

Brent is backing off our long-term TAIL risk line of $108.14. And that is a very good thing. It's the most bullish macro event of the week. The bad thing is our intermediate-term TREND line of support ($106.37) is still intact; we need that to snap to get this massive net long futures/options position under pressure. We are watching this one closely.

RUSSIA

Russian stocks do not like Bernanke tapering. Good. And they don’t like down Oil either (For the record, I like both!). With #RatesRising (10-year yield of 2.58%, great week) Russian stocks lead the losers down -1.3% this morning after failing to recapture TREND resistance of 1374. It ain't a pretty picture for Mr. Putin. Russia is down -9% year-to-date. I like it.

Asset Allocation

CASH 40% US EQUITIES 22%
INTL EQUITIES 12% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 26%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.

MPEL

Gaming, Leisure & Lodging sector head Todd Jordan says Melco International Entertainment stands to benefit from a major new European casino rollout.  An MPEL controlling entity, Melco International Development, is eyeing participation in a US$1 billion gaming project in Barcelona.  The new project, to be called “BCN World,” will start with a single resort with 1,100 hotel beds, a casino, and a theater.  Longer term, the objective is for BCN World to have six resorts.  The first property is scheduled to open for business in 2016. 

HCA

Health Care sector head Tom Tobin has identified a number of tailwinds in the near and longer term that act as tailwinds to the hospital industry, and HCA in particular. This includes: Utilization, Maternity Trends as well as Pent-Up Demand and Acuity. The demographic shift towards more health care – driven by a gradually improving economy, improving employment trends, and accelerating new household formation and births – is a meaningful Macro factor and likely to lead to improving revenue and volume trends moving forward.  Near-term market mayhem should not hamper this  trend, even if it means slightly higher borrowing costs for hospitals down the road. 

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

OIL: Brent backs off the @Hedgeye TAIL risk line of $108.14; most bullish macro event of the week

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.
- Ray Dalio 

STAT OF THE DAY

One big reason for Facebook's surge (up over 23% pre-market this morning): The number of people using Facebook on mobile phones or tablets increased by 51% to 819 million, year-over-year. That said, FB is still off its May 2012 IPO price of $38 per share.


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

next