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PCAR: 2H Buying Opportunity Coming?

Summary

 

Given the risks inherent in the Hours-of-Service (HOS) regulations, the Euro 6 pre-buy and higher a share price relative to our fair value range, we do not expect PCAR to continue to outperform in 2H 2013.  PCAR is one of the best large U.S. industrial franchises and we would like to re-enter lower.  The HOS regulations and Euro 6 emissions standards may yet let us do so.

 


Key Items

 

Euro 6 Pre-buy:  To us, PCAR’s quarter looked fairly dependent on the Euro 6 pre-buy.  The effect of Euro 6 is hard to estimate - even though it was downplayed on the call.  Sales in Europe would probably not have been up (while those in the US and Canada were down) without it.  That pre-buy will probably reverse in 2014, with orders leading by year-end.

 

Industry Not Great Into HOS:  As we have written before, the industry backlog to build ratio (and other metrics) are not all that strong into the new HOS regulations.  These regulations will almost certainly exacerbate the driver shortage and negatively impact truck sales.

 

PCAR Strategy:  We would look to exit PCAR around here (it’s at the high end of our base case valuation range less special dividend, for example).  We suspect that Europe orders will look weak into 2014 with Euro 6 pending.   We also suspect that 2H 2013 US orders will look weak post hours-of-service.  We do not think that investors are compensated valuation-wise for taking those risks at current levels.  If PCAR gets clobbered on HOS, Euro 6 and other worries, we would very much like to re-enter.  There are a number of positive drivers for PCAR, as we outlined in our Truck OEM black book last August, including a very old North American fleet, parts sales on the MX engines and some returns on investments in Brazil.  But the shares have outperformed significantly since that presentation, leaving the risk/reward trade-off less attractive.  We are looking to buy a big dip, if we get it.  If not, there are other fish.

 

 

PCAR: 2H Buying Opportunity Coming? - nb

 


Short the Fear

Client Talking Points

S&P500

Fact: Fear is not getting paid. S&P 500 still ripping higher up +18.7% year-to-date. Russell 2000 absolutely en fuego up basically +24% year-to-date. Key point is S&P 500 has been down only two of the last fourteen days. Yesterday's tiny -0.2% "Mini-Me" correction came on the lowest volume day in the last fourteen. Overall volume trending very weak in July; but the two down days had lower volume than all of the up days. Incidentally, today is the 10th consecutive day where all 9 sectors in our Hedgeye S&P model are bullish on both our TRADE and TREND durations. Don't short any sectors. Immediate-term risk range on S&P 500 is 1684-1702.

COMMODITIES

Both the Bubonic Plague (Gold) and Oil are backing off this morning as the US Dollar stops going down. For the record, we bought back our long USD position yesterday; we still like that versus short Yen. Not to rain on the Gold Bug Parade, but the precious metal is down 20% year-to-date. Our immediate-term risk range (in our Daily Trading Range product) for Gold is $1249-1349. The immediate-term risk range on Oil (Brent) is $107.21-109.14. 

Asset Allocation

CASH 42% US EQUITIES 21%
INTL EQUITIES 11% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 26%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.

MPEL

Gaming, Leisure & Lodging sector head Todd Jordan says Melco International Entertainment stands to benefit from a major new European casino rollout.  An MPEL controlling entity, Melco International Development, is eyeing participation in a US$1 billion gaming project in Barcelona.  The new project, to be called “BCN World,” will start with a single resort with 1,100 hotel beds, a casino, and a theater.  Longer term, the objective is for BCN World to have six resorts.  The first property is scheduled to open for business in 2016. 

HCA

Health Care sector head Tom Tobin has identified a number of tailwinds in the near and longer term that act as tailwinds to the hospital industry, and HCA in particular. This includes: Utilization, Maternity Trends as well as Pent-Up Demand and Acuity. The demographic shift towards more health care – driven by a gradually improving economy, improving employment trends, and accelerating new household formation and births – is a meaningful Macro factor and likely to lead to improving revenue and volume trends moving forward.  Near-term market mayhem should not hamper this  trend, even if it means slightly higher borrowing costs for hospitals down the road. 

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Hedgeye only gets paid for being right - no banking, broker dealering, or insider trading - just research

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Huh? Caterpillar CEO Olberhelman on CNBC this morning: "3 to 5 to 10 years down the road mining activity will come back."

STAT OF THE DAY

China's manufacturing weakened by more than estimated in July, according to a preliminary survey of purchasing managers that casts further doubt on the government’s ability to meet its annual economic growth target. The reading of 47.7 for an index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics, if confirmed in the final report Aug. 1, would be the lowest in 11 months. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. (Bloomberg)


[PODCAST] KEITH PULLS NO PUNCHES

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Q2 2013 GLOBAL HOTEL TRANSACTIONS (UUP/LUXURY)

Similar trend to Q1 

 

 

Upper upscale (UUP) & Luxury Transaction Trends for Q2 2013

  • Q2 2013 worldwide hotel transactions (UUP & Luxury brands) was $2.0 billion, similar to Q1 2013's $2.0 billion but lower than Q2 2012's $2.7 billion. 
  • The number of US luxury/UUP hotel transactions (where price was disclosed) was 12 in Q2 2013 compared with 7 in Q1 2013 and 6 in Q1 2012. 
  • The number of non-US luxury/UUP hotel transactions (where price was disclosed) was 8 in Q2 2013 compared with 7 in Q1 2013 and 10 in Q2 2012.
  • As usual, REITs were very active. 
  • HST bought Hyatt Place Waikiki for $325k APPK (average price per key) and HOT sold W New Orleans for $158k APPK
  • Several multi-asset deals with one large M&A deal in the Upscale segment:  Apple REIT Six merged with BRE Select Hotels (an affiliate of Blackstone); 
  • Relative to a two-year trailing average, US average price per key (APPK) in the UUP segment slipped 11% at $237k.  Non-US APPK in the UUP segment rose 39% to $465k 

Delinquency rate

  • According to Fitch, the hotel delinquency rate in June was 8.4%, higher than that seen in March 2013.  However, the delinquency rate remains well below the relative high of 14% seen in Q3 2011.

Q2 2013 GLOBAL HOTEL TRANSACTIONS (UUP/LUXURY)  - hotel1

 

Q2 2013 GLOBAL HOTEL TRANSACTIONS (UUP/LUXURY)  - hotel2

 

Q2 2013 GLOBAL HOTEL TRANSACTIONS (UUP/LUXURY)  - hotel3

 

Q2 2013 GLOBAL HOTEL TRANSACTIONS (UUP/LUXURY)  - 7 1 2013 4 47 37 PM


July 24, 2013

July 24, 2013 - 724dtr


PNK YOUTUBE

In preparation for PNK's F2Q 2013 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.

 

 

YOUTUBE FROM Q1 CONFERENCE CALL

  • "In Lake Charles, we've been performing an extensive room renovation program with approximately 16% of year-over-year room nights out of service. This is particularly impactful on our weekends. The good news is our newly refurbished guestrooms are terrific, and our guests love what we are doing." 
  • "In St. Louis, we are on the homestretch of our $82 million expansion. Our event center, which is the second component of the expansion, will open in June, and our 200-guestroom hotel opens in the fall."
  • "We have a new management team in place at Boomtown New Orleans. We are seeing immediate improvements with multiple metrics at this property.
  • "In Belterra, we believe we have the right strategy in place to maximize our position in a market that continues to experience increasing gaming options. We remain focused on differentiating Belterra with its resort destination positioning and have recently completed an extensive buffet remodel, are in the process of building a new Stadium Sports Bar and we'll undertake a hotel renovation project this year."
  • "Marketing reinvestment, as a percentage of revenue, was flat versus prior year. We continue to be very focused on driving profitable revenue and applying a measured and rational approach to our marketing spend in all markets."
  • "In terms of guest behavior, in January and February, we saw that trips declined at a greater rate than spend per trip. Meaning people came less often, but their spend was pretty much in line with historical play levels. In March and then into April, both trips and spend patterns came back close to prior-year levels."
  • [L'Auberge Baton Rouge] "Guest acquisition continues to be very strong with over 27,000 people visiting the property for the first time during the quarter. Repeat visitation is also very strong, with over 50% of those who have visited returning for a second trip. The hotel continues to be a good story, with occupancy now over 90% and RevPAR increasing over 30% since opening.  We're very pleased in the progress made by L'Auberge, Baton Rouge over the quarter and are confident of the ramp-up of that facility as we continue to go through the rest of the year."
  • "We continue to look for ways to grow the market by leveraging our existing assets, such as the Four Seasons, where we increased casino guestroom utilization by 43% over prior year. And we await the completion of new assets with the Event Center at River City opening in June and the hotel coming online in late September."
  • "We continue to see the impact of new competition in Columbus, affecting visitation. In terms of the Horseshoe Cincinnati opening in March, it's still too early to quantify but thus far the impact has been muted."
  • "On River Downs, demolition of our grandstand and the other older facilities is complete and we have begun construction of the new facilities with a scheduled opening in the second quarter of 2014."
  • "Our team responded well to lower business levels with a focus on cost containment and operating efficiencies."
  • [L'Auberge Baton Rouge] "You should continue to see improved operating margins there as time goes on. As long as we continue to build the revenue we'll have corresponding margins with that revenue."
  • [River Downs] "The heavy spending will start going into the third quarter in reality. And really the fourth and first quarter will be the bulk of it, the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year with the property opening in the second quarter of 2014."
  • [AC land sale] "It relates to the NOL being created, yes, that will happen as soon as the transaction gets consummated. And our expectations are that that will happen in the third quarter of this year."
  • [Texas] "We don't anticipate there will be any legislation that will move forward this session."
  • "We think that we will be able to de-lever pretty quickly. Not only will we, following capital expenditures both in Lake Charles and River Downs, will we have cash flow to actually pay down debt. But obviously those -- our cash flow base is growing, both by virtue of Baton Rouge maturing as well as River Downs and Lake Charles adding to that base. So we have talked publicly about our targets between 3.5 and 5 times of leverage. We think that we will get there relatively quickly at a faster pace than would be normal because of the dynamics that I just talked about. And really our goal is to get to 4 times or lower within a few years."

Daily Trading Ranges

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