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STRONG USD: A GOOD THING

Client Talking Points

USD

The US Dollar was weak last week (Bernanke was speaking) and down again yesterday. But it is holding our immediate-term TRADE support line of $82.07 (TREND support underpinning that at $81.53). Of particular note, over the last six months, the correlation between the USD and SPX is 0.76. So, despite all the whining out there about strong USD and #RisingRates, you actually should want more of this.

OIL

Good news as Brent is backing off our long-term TAIL risk line of $108.03/barrel again this morning. Meanwhile, Gold, Silver, Copper, Corn, etc are all making lower-highs. Bottom line here is that the only way to get that Consumption "Tax Cut" is via #StrongDollar Commodity Deflation.

UST 10YR

Witness the 10-Year Treasury holding our immediate-term TRADE support line of 2.45%. Like a champ! And then backs up to 2.51% this morning. TREND support here is 2.21%. There’s no resistance to the year-to-date closing highs as the market starts baking in a September tapering of at least $20 billion a month.

Asset Allocation

CASH 46% US EQUITIES 20%
INTL EQUITIES 10% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 24%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.

MPEL

Gaming, Leisure & Lodging sector head Todd Jordan says Melco International Entertainment stands to benefit from a major new European casino rollout.  An MPEL controlling entity, Melco International Development, is eyeing participation in a US$1 billion gaming project in Barcelona.  The new project, to be called “BCN World,” will start with a single resort with 1,100 hotel beds, a casino, and a theater.  Longer term, the objective is for BCN World to have six resorts.  The first property is scheduled to open for business in 2016. 

HCA

Health Care sector head Tom Tobin has identified a number of tailwinds in the near and longer term that act as tailwinds to the hospital industry, and HCA in particular. This includes: Utilization, Maternity Trends as well as Pent-Up Demand and Acuity. The demographic shift towards more health care – driven by a gradually improving economy, improving employment trends, and accelerating new household formation and births – is a meaningful Macro factor and likely to lead to improving revenue and volume trends moving forward.  Near-term market mayhem should not hamper this  trend, even if it means slightly higher borrowing costs for hospitals down the road. 

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Another all-time high for US stock market bulls Monday - all-time is a long time ($SPY and Russell +18.9% and +24% YTD)

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I made a killing in the stock market. My broker lost all my money, so I killed him." - Jim Loy

STAT OF THE DAY

The future heir to the British throne has arrived (still unnamed) - and retailers are ready to cash in on him. The Centre for Retail Research estimates that £80 million ($121 million) alone will be spent on royal baby-related toys and souvenirs.


July 23, 2013

July 23, 2013 - dtr

 

BULLISH TRENDS

July 23, 2013 - 10yr

July 23, 2013 - spx

July 23, 2013 - dax

July 23, 2013 - nik

July 23, 2013 - dxy

July 23, 2013 - oil

 

BEARISH TRENDS

July 23, 2013 - VIX

July 23, 2013 - yen

July 23, 2013 - natgas

July 23, 2013 - gold
July 23, 2013 - copper

 


Stealing Time

This note was originally published at 8am on July 09, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“I want to use the time it takes.”

-Per Peterson

 

As opposed to what I usually do when I’m reading non-fiction, I don’t dog-ear many pages when I read a novel. The aforementioned quote is a simple one for type-A types in this profession. It comes from Peterson’s acclaimed novel, Out Stealing Horses.

 

Time is important to me now, I tell myself. Not that it should pass quickly or slowly, but be only time, be something I live inside and fill with physical things and activities that I can divided it up by, so that it grows distinct to me and does not vanish when I am not looking.” (Out Stealing Horses)

 

That is all. I just wanted to share it with you. It’s a blessing to be able to work with my teammates and produce something distinct every morning. Thank you for taking the time to read our thoughts.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Three consecutive up days for the SP500 (taking it to within 1.7% of her all-time high of 1669) as the Russell 2000 powers forward to make its 2nd consecutive all-time high in as many trading days (+18.8% YTD to 1,009). That’s progress.

 

So are US employment growth expectations rising alongside:

 

A)     Rising Bond Yields

B)      Falling Equity Volatility

 

In Hedgeye quant-speak, that means:

  1. SP500 is back in a Bullish Formation (bullish on all 3 of our core risk management durations, TRADE/TREND/TAIL)
  2. US Equity Volatility (VIX) is back in a Bearish Formation with immediate-term TRADE resistance = 16.39
  3. US Treasury 10yr Bond Yields remain in a Bullish Formation (with immediate-term TRADE support 2.33%)

As growth expectations rise, slow-growth securities (Bonds, MLPs, Utilities, etc.) fall:

  1. US Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) = +3.39% July-to-date
  2. US Financials (XLF) = +2.67% July-to-date
  3. US Utilities (XLU) = -0.53% July-to-date

In other words, one of these things (XLU) is not like the others. #StrongDollar and #RatesRising gets the consumer paid, not the banker and/or ETF manufacturer who is pushing you Yield-Chaser product.

 

*Key Word Score in 2013 = #expectations

 

Mr Market couldn’t care less what Captain Valuation thinks about a mining security. Mr Market is all about the rate of change in expectations. And right now, expectations are rising that #GrowthSlowing is still yesterday’s war.

 

From a US stock market factoring perspective, here’s another way to look at that relative to the SP500’s +15.0% YTD gain:

  1. Low Yield Stocks = +22.9% YTD
  2. Top 25% EPS Growth Stocks = +19.4% YTD
  3. High Beta stocks = +17.5% YTD

High Yield Stocks (i.e. slow growth) are only +11.2% YTD. Whether you are long Tesla (TSLA) (which is replacing Oracle (ORCL) in the Nasdaq 100 today), or you’re short sketchy MLP companies, you are just loving this expectations shift versus the consensus.

 

Don’t let jimmy pundit confuse you  - for the entire year the #OldWall hasn’t been Bullish Enough on the US Dollar, Bond Yields, and Growth Expectations. At the beginning of 2013, the sell-side’s average “year-end target” for the SP500 was only 1531.

 

Today, the SP500 is obviously 109 handles higher than that, and the VIX is -18.0% for the YTD. Only 43.8% of investors surveyed in the most recent II Bullish/Bearish Survey admitted they are bullish.

 

Are we discounting too much growth too fast? Or are we just normalizing a pervasively bearish growth expectation in the political economy? I don’t know. All I know is that I will not let consensus’ bearish baggage get me down.

 

Life is too short to not enjoy the up moves. If I can steal more of the good times, I’ll take them.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr 2.56-2.74%

SPX 1619-1650

VIX 14.12-16.36

USD 83.47-84.83

Yen 99.59-101.98

Brent Oil 104.93-108.36

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Stealing Time - Chart of the Day

 

Stealing Time - Virtual Portfolio


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Self-Confidence

“The greatest barrier to success is the fear of failure.”

-Sven Goran Eriksson

 

I was in Kansas City, Missouri then Denver, Colorado yesterday before flying into Aspen last night for the 2013 Fortune Brainstorm Tech Conference (ping me if you are here!). Cabs, planes, and bad coffee - just another busy day in the life of building a business.  

                                                                                                                                                              

But what is it that gives us the confidence in building our own businesses? With all of the politics, fear-mongering, and central planning, why do we care to carry on? In moments of weakness, I admit to asking myself these questions every once in a while. Then something inspires me to rise above all of that. It’s either in your gut, or it is not.

 

There’s a great passage in a novel I just finished (Out Stealing Horses, by Per Peterson) that reminded me of who taught me to be this way (my Dad): “he had so much self-confidence he could take on almost anything and believe he would succeed” (pg 51). But don’t kid yourself; having role models in your life isn’t enough – you have to be the change, and break confidence barriers yourself.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

How many people have been confident enough to be invested in US growth stocks in 2013? Of the non-consensus bulls you know, how many of them are bullish because of #RatesRising?

 

I won’t hear it at this innovator’s conference in Colorado today, but I hear it a ton in institutional investor meetings - lots of doubt, fear, and concern. The lack of self-confidence out there is born out of a lot of 2008 baggage. I don’t get bogged down by that.

 

Both the SP500 and Russell2000 clocked fresh all-time highs again yesterday of +18.9% and +24%, respectively for 2013 YTD. #StrongDollar and #RatesRising isn’t something to be feared; it’s a pro-growth signal that needs to be understood.

 

By our risk management process scorecard, this morning is almost perfect for US stocks. Here’s the big 3 things to have confidence in:

 

1.   #StrongDollar – after correcting -0.5% last week (Bernanke wasn’t giving anyone anything but things to fear, which is just a shame at this point) and falling again yesterday, today the US Dollar Index holds both our immediate-term TRADE ($82.07) and intermediate-term TREND ($81.53) lines of support

 

2.   #RatesRising – after falling 10 basis points last week to 2.48% (Bernanke policy to have you fear failure), the 10yr yield held our immediate-term TRADE line of 2.45% support yesterday (TREND support underpins that at 2.21%) and is backing up again this morning to 2.51%; higher-lows and higher-highs for bond yields is a bullish growth signal supported by employment gains

 

3.   #CommodityDeflation – with the USD -0.5% last week, Commodities were +1.5% (CRB Index) – that’s not new; the intermediate-term correlation between USD and Commodities = -0.71. Why? That’s simple – the entire base of futures/options buyers in Gold, Oil, Food, etc. is still trying to front-run Bernanke’s “tone” on tapering

 

Like they were in the summer of 2008 (when Bernanke was whispering to the #OldWall that he was going to cut to 0%, too early), Oil prices are once again the biggest threat to US Consumption.  

 

If you want fear, I’ll give you something to fear – it’s called Dollar Devaluation. Just reverse all of the aforementioned 3 things and the USD will weaken, interest rates will fall, and commodity reflation will slow growth.

 

Who wants that? And, moreover, if 95-99% of Americans don’t want that, who stands in the way of tapping Bernanke on the shoulder and telling him to taper?

 

If Reagan or Clinton were in office, they’d be perfectly fine with that. Bush and Obama have been so scared of their own economic shadow that it’s their fears that have manifested into the conflicted power of Bernanke’s Bubbles (Commodities, Gold, Treasuries, etc.).

 

I don’t fear the politicized not liking my advice. I fear that a lot of Americans are going to get blown up by this bond bubble. I also fear that the only fear left, is a fear-mongering anti-growth government policy itself.

 

The greatest barrier to #StrongDollar and #RatesRising is self-evident. It’s time to get this old-boy, crony-whispering, and un-elected policy out of our way. It’s time to let free-market prices clear. The inability to evolve is as very credible threat. Confidence is the answer.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr 2.45-2.70%

SPX 1

VIX 11.57-14.16

USD 82.07-83.46

Brent Oil 107.11-109.08

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Self-Confidence - Chart of the Day

 

Self-Confidence - Virtual Portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

*The Hedgeye Daily Outlook will not be published again until Monday, July 29th.

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 23, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 0.86% downside to 1681 and 0.56% upside to 1705.    

                                                                                                                          

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.21 from 2.18
  • VIX closed at 12.29 1 day percent change of -1.99%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: ICSC retail sales
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index, May, est. 0.8% (prior 0.7%)
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manuf Index, July, est. 9 (prior 8)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $3-$3.75b notes in 2019-2020 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills, $25b 52W bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2Y notes
  • 4:30pm: API crude, oil product inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Banking subcmte holds hearing, “Examining Financial Holding Companies: Should Banks Control Power Plants, Warehouses, and Oil Refineries?” 10am
    • House Agriculture panel hears from CFTC members Scott O’Malia and Mark Wetjen on the future of the commission, 10am
    • House Financial Services Cmte votes on Chairman Jeb Hensarling’s bill that would wind down Fannie and Freddie, marking for concrete congressional action on legislative proposals to revamp U.S. housing finance system, 10:15am
    • Senate Health, Education and Labor Cmte hears from National Labor Relations Board nominees Kent Hirozawa and Nancy Schiffer at confirmation hearing, 10am
    • House Judiciary panel holds hearing on legal status of undocumented immigrants brought to U.S. as children, 2pm
    • House Education and Workforce panel hears from OMB official Howard Shelanski on delaying the health-care law’s employer mandate, 10am
    • McAfee CTO Phyllis Schneck joins panel of witnesses for House Foreign Affairs Subcmte on Asia and the Pacific hearing on cybersecurity, 2pm

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Biggest Banks Face Fed Restoring Barriers in Commods Review
  • Netflix 2Q EPS beats, domestic streaming subs miss
  • Pentagon’s spectrum compromise benefits wireless carriers: WSJ
  • Verizon raising speed of its internet to 500 megabits/second
  • Nokia said to prepare rollout of new Lumia-based smarthone
  • Oracle raising China investment, Shanghai Daily says, cites CEO
  • Aereo seeking to reach 25% of U.S. population, CEO says
  • Ebay projects cross-border shipping at $307b in 2018
  • SouthWest jet has nose gear failure at LaGuardia airport
  • Obama said to consider Raskin for dep. Treasury Secretary
  • Chinese Premier said to have placed 7% growth as 2013 minimum

EARNINGS:

    • DuPont (DD) 6am, $1.27
    • Air Products & Chemicals (APD) 6am, $1.36
    • CIT Group (CIT) 6am, $0.91
    • Polaris Industries (PII) 6am, $1.10
    • Sensata Technologies Holding (ST) 6am, $0.53
    • Carlisle Cos (CSL) 6am, $1.34
    • Centene (CNC) 6am, $0.65
    • RadioShack (RSH) 6am, ($0.24)
    • Travelers (TRV) 6:57am, $1.59
    • Altria Group (MO) 6:58am, $0.63 - Preview
    • United Technologies (UTX) 6:59am, $1.58 - Preview
    • Lexmark International (LXK) 6:59am, $0.87
    • Regions Financial (RF) 7am, $0.21
    • Pentair (PNR) 7am, $0.90
    • Forest Laboratories (FRX) 7am, $0.08
    • Waters (WAT) 7am, $1.21
    • Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) 7am, $0.97
    • Penn National Gaming (PENN) 7am, $0.63
    • Wendy’s (WEN) 7am, $0.06
    • MGIC Investment (MTG) 7am, ($0.13)
    • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) 7:07am, ($0.68)
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) 7:25am, $2.20 - Preview
    • TDAmeritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30am, $0.31
    • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) 7:30am, $0.56
    • FirstMerit (FMER) 7:30am, $0.31
    • Exact Sciences (EXAS) 7:30am, ($0.18)
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) 7:35am, $0.70
    • Valero Energy (VLO) 7:43am, $0.96
    • United Parcel Service (UPS) 7:45am, $1.13 - Preview
    • Ryder System (R) 7:55am, $1.23
    • Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 8am, $1.10
    • Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) 8am, $0.45 - Preview
    • PACCAR (PCAR) 8am, $0.75
    • Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8am, $1.04
    • Peabody Energy (BTU) 8am, ($0.05) - Preview
    • TCF Financial (TCB) 8am, $0.21
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) 8:30am, $1.15
    • FMC Technologies (FTI) 4pm, $0.47
    • Panera Bread (PNRA) 4pm, $1.77
    • Robert Half International (RHI) 4pm, $0.43
    • RF Micro Devices (RFMD) 4pm, $0.07
    • AT&T (T) 4:01pm, $0.68 - Preview
    • ACE (ACE) 4:01pm, $1.94
    • VMware (VMW) 4:01pm, $0.77
    • Electronic Arts (EA) 4:01pm, ($0.60)
    • Total System Services (TSS) 4:01pm, $0.33
    • Nabors Industries (NBR) 4:01pm, $0.09
    • American Campus Communities (ACC) 4:02pm, $0.56
    • Waste Connections (WCN) 4:04pm, $0.43
    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) 4:05pm, $1.49
    • Broadcom (BRCM) 4:05pm, $0.69
    • Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4:05pm, $0.25 - Preview
    • Illumina (ILMN) 4:05pm, $0.39
    • CR Bard (BCR) 4:05pm, $1.38
    • Everest Re Group (RE) 4:05pm, $4.25
    • Compuware (CPWR) 4:05pm, $0.04
    • Polycom (PLCM) 4:05pm, $0.14
    • Altera (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.31
    • International Game Technology (IGT) 4:15pm, $0.31
    • KKR Financial Holdings (KFN) 4:15pm, $0.37
    • Apple (AAPL) 4:30pm, $7.30 - Preview
    • Unisys (UIS) 4:30pm, $0.90
    • Rock Tenn (RKT) 5pm, $1.66       

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Biggest Banks Face Fed Restoring Barriers in Commodities Review
  • Sugar Glut Easing as Bear Market Spurs Supply Cuts: Commodities
  • Goldman Pares Its 12-Month Commodity Outlook After Crude’s Rally
  • WTI Drops a Second Day; Goldman Predicts Wider Discount to Brent
  • Gold Imports by India May Slump as Purchases Linked to Exports
  • Copper Falls as Some Investors Sell on Demand-Outlook Concern
  • Corn Falls to Two-Week Low as Cooler Weather Boosts U.S. Outlook
  • Arabica Coffee Gains Before Brazil Cold Weather; Cocoa Advances
  • MillerCoors Sees Metal-Warehouse Delay Costing Buyers $3 Billion
  • Crude Supplies Drop to Six-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Rebar Advances Amid Steel Price Increase, China Speculation
  • Japanese LNG Profit Premium Over U.K. Falls to Eight-Month Low
  • Gold’s 50-Day Moving Average Signals Advance: Technical Analysis
  • Gold Falls From One-Month High After Rally Spurs Investor Sales

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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