Takeaway: Please join us today at 1PM for a review and update on our CAT short thesis. Dial-in and materials below.



We will be presenting a flash conference call reviewing our short thesis on Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) titled "Short CAT - What You Need To Know Now" on Thursday, July 18th at 1:00pm EDT. We have published several pieces outlining our short thesis on CAT. After a decade of being a primary beneficiary of the boom in commodity prices CAT may be in a very vulnerable position.




Detail our short thesis on CAT, why the Company will struggle to meet company targets and street expectations.



  • Super-cycle Downside: Resources-related capital spending is likely to decline much more than estimates expect
  • Commodity Markets/Emerging Markets:  Even if emerging markets rebound, which we do not see, commodity supply remains a major headwind
  • Acquisitions:  CAT not only overpaid for ERA and Bucyrus, but also may have benefited from the flexibility in purchase accounting
  • Receivables Growth and Inventories:  High inventories and rapid receivables growth have left CAT with weak free cash flow and other challenges
  • Abandon 2015 Targets?  That would be fast, since they were established in the fall of 2012
  • Valuation:  A low-ish multiple typically means peak earnings, not cheap equity


  • Toll Free Number:  
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 428976#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE


Please email if you have any questions.

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