Confusion in markets can breed contempt. Maybe that's why I am quite satisfied to have sold US Equities prior to this morning's jobless claims report - when considering different points of duration, it was confusing.
This morning's print of 631,000 claims, while better on a week over week basis vs. last week's upwardly revised report of 643,000, still jacks us up ABOVE the 4-week moving average of 629,000 (see chart). Trading above the 4-week moving average puts the tail risk associated with a potential re-acceleration in unemployment trends in play.
At the end of the day, even though a few "strategists" have borrowed my lingo, what happens the margin is what matters most to my global macro model.
If the bulls are claiming confusion this morning, that's because they should be. I'll let them do that as I start to wander on over to my ole friends places in the bear camps. I wonder if I'll find anyone left standing?
Manage risk in the market that's in front of you, not behind...
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer