That’s a good stat for baseball but not so good when it comes to regional gaming operators missing estimates.
Estimates keep coming down yet regional gamers keep missing. Q2 should be a rerun. The following table details our EBITDA estimates. Contact us if you would like to see our models.
Note that we expect same-store EBITDA to fall for each of the four regional operators for the 2nd straight quarter. With the exception of PENN, it should be 3 quarters in a row. The economy is doing better and housing prices have improved. What’s going? We think oversupply and lack of demand are the problems. As we illustrated in our 05/17/13 note “CHART DU JOUR: ADMITTING THE PROBLEM,’ the positive macro hasn’t overcome the long-term secular headwind of a declining slot customer base.