MEMORIES OF MAY

June casino revenues are being released by the states and the verdict is…

Longing for the good ol’ days of same store revenue declines of only 2%?  You may be after the final tally for June.  Illinois released dreadful figures this am with SSS down 10%.  We’re pretty sure Missouri will show a decline of around 11%.  Yes, there were some weather issues on June 1st and the calendar is down a Friday, but these numbers are even worse than what we were predicting.  Our estimate for June regional SSS was down 5% but given IL and MO, downside exists.  Remember that May was only down 2%.

We’ve got 3 charts included in this post.  The first is total regional same store revenue.  Note the significant sequential drop from May to June.  July should look better than June but that is due to a very easy comparison.  Please also note how historically accurate our predictions have been.  The second and third charts detail the specific markets of Illiniois and Missouri, respectively.  The other states will release their June figures over the coming 2 weeks.

We remain negative (and generally wrong lately) on the regional gaming stocks:  PNK, BYD, ISLE, and PENN.  The pie of slot customers is shrinking over the long-term but the impact is being felt now.

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