It's not all ball bearings these days, Fletch. And it's not all Video Reel either. As the following chart shows, almost 60% of the 950,000 slot machines on casino floor in North America are Reel Spinning and Video Poker machines. Nobody is replacing the Steady Eddie Video Poker until the machine physically disintegrates. Aside from video poker, the oldest machines are almost all Reel Spinning.
The shelf life of Video Reels is less than half of a Reel Spinner. I'm not talking about functional life, but life as a contributor above the house average play level. Virtually all of the replacement demand we've seen in the last few years has been on the Video Reel side. My contention is that once the operators' balance sheets are in order - they are on their way thanks to the opening of the credit/equity markets - the old Reel Spinners will be replaced fairly quickly.
The good news for IGT is that they dominate the Reel Spinning market. It is likely that most of the old Reel Spinners will be replaced by new Reel Spinners. Video Reels have probably replaced as close to all the Reel Spinners the will ever replace. There remains player demand for Reel Spinners, especially now with the advent of 5 Reels versus the traditional 3 Reels. Incidentally, the only video product that could replace a Reel Spinner is IGT's Multi Layer Display game that looks like a Reel Spinner. We've gotten very good feedback on the performance of these products.
We've made the case that improving balance sheets should finally expedite the re-acceleration of the replacement cycle (5/15 - "IGT: MGM, CREDIT MARKETS, AND REPLACEMENT DEMAND"). The casino floor is as old as it has been since 2001 and the age is concentrated in the Reel Spinning category. IGT could generate well above its normal share in a recovery.