It's not all ball bearings these days, Fletch.  And it's not all Video Reel either.  As the following chart shows, almost 60% of the 950,000 slot machines on casino floor in North America are Reel Spinning and Video Poker machines.  Nobody is replacing the Steady Eddie Video Poker until the machine physically disintegrates.  Aside from video poker, the oldest machines are almost all Reel Spinning. 




The shelf life of Video Reels is less than half of a Reel Spinner.  I'm not talking about functional life, but life as a contributor above the house average play level.  Virtually all of the replacement demand we've seen in the last few years has been on the Video Reel side.  My contention is that once the operators' balance sheets are in order - they are on their way thanks to the opening of the credit/equity markets - the old Reel Spinners will be replaced fairly quickly.


The good news for IGT is that they dominate the Reel Spinning market.  It is likely that most of the old Reel Spinners will be replaced by new Reel Spinners.  Video Reels have probably replaced as close to all the Reel Spinners the will ever replace.  There remains player demand for Reel Spinners, especially now with the advent of 5 Reels versus the traditional 3 Reels.  Incidentally, the only video product that could replace a Reel Spinner is IGT's Multi Layer Display game that looks like a Reel Spinner.  We've gotten very good feedback on the performance of these products.


We've made the case that improving balance sheets should finally expedite the re-acceleration of the replacement cycle (5/15 - "IGT: MGM, CREDIT MARKETS, AND REPLACEMENT DEMAND").  The casino floor is as old as it has been since 2001 and the age is concentrated in the Reel Spinning category.  IGT could generate well above its normal share in a recovery.

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more