prev

Keith's Top-7 Tweets Today

Takeaway: A quick snapshot of Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's top tweets today.

Learn from every mistake, but wake up expecting to win the next game

@KeithMcCullough 3:59 PM

 

Keith's Top-7 Tweets Today - tweet

 

I've tried over-trading low-volume whip arounds plenty of times - its no way to live

@KeithMcCullough 3:44 PM 

 

Do what you do, let everyone else waste their day trying to be someone else

@KeithMcCullough 3:41 PM

 

$TSLA remains one of the markets new Generals; no resistance to all-time highs

@KeithMcCullough 3:30 PM

 

Where I come from, respect isn't allocated to an aristocracy of perceived wisdom - it's earned, every day

@KeithMcCullough 10:44 AM

 

We need to get rid of all these losers whining, and get on with winning - let rates rise for God's sake

@KeithMcCullough 10:14 AM

 

To be fair, this is a legacy #OldWall problem - most are pigeon holed into being bullish or bearish, in boxes

@KeithMcCullough 8:21 AM


Trade of the Day: CAKE

Takeaway: We bought The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) at 3:11 PM at $40.86.

Hedgeye Restaurant Guru Howard Penney remains “The Bull” on The Cheesecake Factory. We got a nice pullback to TREND support here that we can start nibbling at. Let them eat CAKE.

 

Trade of the Day: CAKE - CAKE


NKE: Thursday's Print = Buy the News

Takeaway: We rarely classify NKE EPS a 'do nothing', but that's this Thursday's print. The story is intact. If the noise is loud look to buy the news.

Thursday's Print = Buy the News: Nike remains one of our favorite longs, as we think that estimates are low by 5%  next  year ($3.25)and 10% the year after ($3.75). But we don't think the 4Q print on Thursday is a 'buy ahead of the numbers' kind of event.  In fact, we'd classify it more as 'buy the news' -- whether positive or negative. We think the company will beat, but in less sexy parts of the P&L like SG&A, while at the same time it should keep the lid on guidance for next FY. Recall that it was just 13 weeks ago that NKE guided for FY14 to be 'at or above' its high-single-digit top line long-term growth forecast, and 'at the high-end' of its low-mid teens long-term EPS growth target. Since then business conditions have remained relatively stable, but they clearly have not improved.  As such one thing Nike absolutely won't do is let estimates go any higher for next year -- even if strong fundamentals suggest otherwise. They'll say what they have to in order to keep the Street grounded. Without any guidance upside, and with a lower-quality beat, we simply don't think this qualifies as a 'trade into the quarter'.  That's especially the case with short interest sitting near historic lows.  If the stock trades off on the news, then we get much more interested near-term.

 

Now we'll talk out of the other side of our mouth. It's probably a lousy short as well. Simply put, it’s an extremely high-quality leader in a Global duopoly with dominant market share, rising returns, 8% of its market cap in cash and a consensus that is underestimating the earnings power of the company 2-3 years out by 10-15%.  Oh…and by the way, they're not going to let the stock tank only days after the announced voluntary retirement of one of the most popular executives in the company's history (Denson won't be a fall guy).  Could it sell-off around a noisy quarter? Sure, especially at 18-19x next year's earnings. But it'd be an event that we'd look at to go the other way. 

 

Here are some factors to consider headed into the print…

  1. If there is any considerable variability in NKE's numbers, we think it will be on the SG&A line -- as Nike laps a 24% boost in Demand Creation spending in 4Q of last year during the build-up for the Summer Olympics, the launch of the NFL business, and the kick off of the Nike+ Fuelband campaign. We'll take EBIT upside any way we can get it, but historically investors don't pay as much for SG&A-driven upside as they do revenue/gross profit upside.
  2. We think that Nike sandbagged with its expectation for a 50bp improvement in 4Q gross margins. The reality is that with 8.5% average growth in the top line over the past two quarters combined with 4% growth in inventories, the balance sheet is as clean as its been in over two years.
  3. Japan might only account for 5% of Nike's business, but you can bet that management will call it out much like Ralph Lauren did as it relates to volatility in business conditions and FX conversion headed into its upcoming Fiscal Year. It'll help Nike keep expectations grounded.
  4. Nike will start to anniversary the addition of the NFL license to its North American business. Our estimate is that this is on its way to being a $500mm business. That's about a third of the $1.5bn in growth that Nike North America should add this year. Keep this in mind as it relates to growth in North America, which will taper as this new business scales.
  5. In this quarter last year we saw a 1,800bn sequential roll in China futures. As it anniversaries those losses, we'll see Nike gain some of that back even without making heroic assumptions about any kind of rebound in China. This will be an important factor for top line growth in the upcoming year.
  6. Similarly, it was in 4Q of last year where we saw Emerging Markets futures (fall back and) touch 10% -- a level that suggests that the Emerging Markets are not Emerging.  We've been highlighting this issue, and have seen orders tick up. Comparisons will be easier for the next three quarters (leading up to World Cup in Brazil next year).

 

Ultimately, we have evidence that the US is still healthy.  If you want to be bearish on the US, it will need to be 3-4 quarters out which is when visibility gets cloudy. But then we've got greater contribution from China and Emerging Markets, and more importantly, we get into World Cup Territory in the summer of 2014 in Brazil. Our point is that it will be pretty tough to be a big bear on Nike's top line over the next 12 months.

 


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Pity the (Gold) Fool!

Takeaway: It's just getting ugly for gold.

How’s that gold trade working out for the gold bugs?

 

If what we’re seeing after its latest freefall is considered a “bounce,” then I don’t want to be long bounces. It's just plain ugly out there.

 

Seven months or so ago, we said gold could go to $1271. I remember saying that at the Money Show. At least half the room shot their arms up and asked incredulously, “Did you say twelve?” Yup, that’s what I said.

 

Pity the (Gold) Fool! - Gold 2

 

Well, there you have it—a “12” handle in front of gold.  Gold is down around 24% YTD. That’s called a correction. 

 

$1254 is the new line of support. Guess what comes after “12”? Not “13”. It could easily be an “11” handle. 

 

Heck, why not $800 for gold?

 

At the end of the day, if interest rates keep rising, gold is going to have a hangover the likes of which we’ve never seen. 

 

(Editor's Note: This commentary comes from from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's morning conference call. If you would like to learn more, please click here.)


IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS?

Takeaway: Contrary to consensus perception, the real headwinds facing China’s banking system are structural (i.e. NOT cyclical) in nature.

This note was originally published June 25, 2013 at 11:52 in Macro

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS? - chiner

 

SUMMARY BULLETS:

  • As outlined in a research note published early yesterday afternoon, we do think China’s cyclical banking system woes are: A) near fully priced in on an immediate-term basis and B) near fully understood by market participants – inclusive of today’s front-page WSJ callout. As such, we would expect to see a relief rally of sorts at some point over the immediate-term, as speculators follow through thanks to additional clarity out of the PBoC and what may morph into USD-debauching, anti-tapering headlines out of the Federal Reserve.
  • We are however, inclined to fade any relief rally as the SHCOMP approaches its immediate-term TRADE line of resistance up at 2,123. That’s approximately +5.2% higher from today’s closing price – which actually took out the near 4Y lows established in DEC ’12. It remains our view that the real headwinds facing China’s banking system are structural (i.e. NOT cyclical) in nature.
  • For those of you seeking a greater understanding of those risks, please review our recent short-China presentation, as well as the compendium of hyperlinked research notes and slide decks found at the conclusion of this note. As always, if you or anyone on your team has questions on China, please feel free to reach out to us via email at any time. We always look forward to engaging in thoughtful dialogue with clients.

 

CHARTS OF THE DAY

A 5Y chart of China’s Shanghai Composite Index tells a pretty rough tale of a country in economic transition (click HERE & HERE for historical context):

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS? - dd

 

A 6Y chart of China’s Shanghai Composite Index tells an even rougher tale of an economy with a formerly world-beating, internationally-attractive growth model that is now squarely in the rear-view mirror (click HERE & HERE for historical context):

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS? - 2

 

A 10Y chart of China’s Shanghai Composite Index overlaid with Cyprus’ FSTE Stock Exchange 20 Index tells a rather damning tale of two countries that once lived large on financial excesses and are now facing up to the harsh realities of rapid credit expansion and adverse selection – not the least of which is structural liquidity constraints across the financial system (click HERE, HERE & HERE for more details):

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS? - 3

 

THE PBoC [FINALLY] COMES TO THE RESCUE… WELL, SORT OF

Down another -5.8% on its overnight lows, the SHCOMP rallied sharply intraday to close essentially flat on a rumor that the PBoC CSRC, CBRC and CIRC were going to hold a joint press conference to discuss recent market developments and banking liquidity. For now, that mega joint press conference remains a Hilsenrath-style rumor – and somewhat unlikely given the generally silo’ed nature of China’s regulatory branches.

 

Also supportive of the intraday rally in Chinese equities and the pacifying of money market rates was commentary out of Ling Tao, deputy head of the PBoC’s Shanghai branch, which was affirmed by a broader PBoC statement (bold emphasis our own):

 

  • “The People’s Bank of China has provided liquidity to some financial institutions to stabilize money-market rates and will use short-term liquidity operations and standing lending-facility tools to ensure steady markets.”
  • “With the elimination of seasonal and emotional factors, interest-rate fluctuations and the tight liquidity situation will gradually ease.”
  • “Financial institutions’ cash reserves stood at about 1.5 trillion yuan ($244 billion) as of June 21, compared with the 600 billion yuan or 700 billion yuan sufficient under normal circumstances to cover payment and clearing needs. The present liquidity is not insufficient.”
  • “We’ll closely monitor the change of liquidity within the banking system going forward, flexibly adjusting liquidity management based on international payments and the liquidity demand-and-supply situation.”
  • “The PBOC will strengthen communications with market institutions, stabilize expectations and guide market interest rates within reasonable ranges.”
  • “Banks should handle fluctuations in liquidity calmly and avoid irrational behavior.”
  • “The PBOC will provide liquidity support to those banks with temporary needs if they are lending to help the economy. For banks with liquidity-management problems, the PBOC will take corresponding measures according to circumstances to ensure broader market stability.”

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS? - 5

 

It’s worth noting that the final point should be taken in the context of Chinese authorities seemingly preparing the country to handle a large-scale, domestic banking crisis – which we still view as improbable over the intermediate-to-long-term.

 

It’s also worth noting that the “if they are lending to help the economy” clause should be taken as a direct shot across the bow to lenders that have been contributing to widespread speculation in China’s fixed assets investment bubble (i.e. all of them). We reiterate our view that Chinese policymakers no longer consider FAI as a sustainable or desired engine for economic expansion and employment/labor income growth.

 

Moreover, that policy shift is extremely negative for industrial commodity prices and anything tangentially linked to the mining CapEx bubble (email us if you’d like to connect with our Industrials Sector Head, Jay Van Sciver, regarding his list of short ideas within this theme).

 

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

As outlined in a research note published early yesterday afternoon, we do think China’s cyclical banking system woes are: A) near fully priced in on an immediate-term basis and B) near fully understood by market participants – inclusive of today’s front-page WSJ callout. As such, we would expect to see a relief rally of sorts at some point over the immediate-term, as speculators follow through thanks to additional clarity out of the PBoC and what may morph into USD-debauching, anti-tapering headlines out of the Federal Reserve.

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS? - 4

 

We are however, inclined to fade any relief rally as the SHCOMP approaches its immediate-term TRADE line of resistance up at 2,123. That’s approximately +5.2% higher from today’s closing price – which actually took out the near 4Y lows established in DEC ’12. It remains our view that the real headwinds facing China’s banking system are structural (i.e. NOT cyclical) in nature.

 

For those of you seeking a greater understanding of those risks, please review our recent short-China presentation, as well as the compendium of hyperlinked research notes and slide decks found at the conclusion of this note. As always, if you or anyone on your team has questions on China, please feel free to reach out to us via email at any time. We always look forward to engaging in thoughtful dialogue with clients.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

 

  • IS OUR BEARISH THESIS ON THE CHINESE FINANCIAL SYSTEM PRICED IN YET? (6/24): On an immediate-term basis, yes. On an intermediate-to-long-term basis, no. A crisis appears unlikely, but structural headwinds will remain.
  • THE CHINESE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS FREAKISHLY STRESSED (6/19): There appears to be no end in sight for desert-like liquidity conditions across the Chinese financial system.
  • REPLAY PODCAST AND SLIDES: ARE YOU SHORT CHINA [AND OTHER EMERGING MARKETS] YET? (6/12): We think the outlook for Chinese credit growth is structurally impaired. Moreover, we anticipate that growth in non-performing loans will accelerate sustainably over the long term. Lastly, we believe that net interest margins across the Chinese banking industry face immense regulatory headwinds that may ultimately have dire consequences for China’s fixed assets investment bubble. At a bare minimum, investors should steer clear of these obvious value traps over the intermediate-to-long term. Moreover, we continue to believe assets linked to Chinese industrial demand will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future.
  • IS CHINA PREPARING FOR SYSTEMIC FINANCIAL RISK? (6/10): Recent policy developments call attention to the systemic risks facing China’s banking system. Additionally, MAY growth data came in soft.
  • IS A RATE HIKE(S) COMING DOWN THE PIKE IN CHINA? (6/4): No change to our dour view of China’s TREND-duration growth outlook or the pending bifurcation of FAI and consumption growth.
  • IS THE RECENT RALLY IN CHINESE EQUITIES SUSTAINABLE? (5/17): We do not think the recent strength in the Chinese equity market is sustainable, as China’s 2H13 growth outlook appears dicey at best.
  • WHY IS CHINA GOOSING ITS EXPORT FIGURES AND HOW MUCH LONGER WILL IT CONTINUE? (5/8): Chinese firms are goosing exports to drive incremental liquidity into the banking system – a phenomenon that appears set to slow from here.
  • TWO CHINAS? (5/1): Financial system headwinds continue to outweigh consumption tailwinds within the Chinese economy.
  • REPLAY: Will China Break? (4/30): The Party’s use of state owned banks to drive economic growth through fixed asset investment has left the financial system loaded with bad assets.  The bad assets mirror bad investments in the real economy.  They also can limit the ability of Chinese banks to make new loans.  Following the financial crisis, the Chinese government pushed too hard on the FAI growth lever, building infrastructure projects “for the next 10 years.” It has also left the banking sector choked with bad debts that may limit future lending.  Those factors should slow Chinese FAI growth and slower Chinese FAI growth should be negative for commodity prices and resource-related profits, all else equal.
  • CAN CHINA AVOID FINANCIAL CRISIS? (4/26): The risk of a Chinese financial crisis is heightened to the extent that financial sector reforms are not appropriately managed.
  • REPLAY: EMERGING MARKET CRISES (4/23): We currently see a pervasive level of risk across the emerging market space at the country level and have quantified which countries are most vulnerable. China is particularly vulnerable to experiencing a financial crisis.
  • BEST IDEAS UPDATE LONG CHINA (NOT); SHORT YEN (4/19): We anticipate the impact of recent and pending regulatory measures to continue weighing on both economic growth and investor sentiment across the Chinese economy.
  • IS CHINA CAREENING TOWARDS FINANCIAL CRISIS? (3/28): Systemic risks are present across China’s financial sector – as is the political will and fiscal firepower needed to avert a crisis.

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS OR IS CYPRUS JUST A SMALLER VERSION OF CHINA?

Takeaway: Contrary to consensus perception, the real headwinds facing China’s banking system are structural (i.e. NOT cyclical) in nature.

SUMMARY BULLETS:

 

  • As outlined in a research note published early yesterday afternoon, we do think China’s cyclical banking system woes are: A) near fully priced in on an immediate-term basis and B) near fully understood by market participants – inclusive of today’s front-page WSJ callout. As such, we would expect to see a relief rally of sorts at some point over the immediate-term, as speculators follow through thanks to additional clarity out of the PBoC and what may morph into USD-debauching, anti-tapering headlines out of the Federal Reserve.
  • We are however, inclined to fade any relief rally as the SHCOMP approaches its immediate-term TRADE line of resistance up at 2,123. That’s approximately +5.2% higher from today’s closing price – which actually took out the near 4Y lows established in DEC ’12. It remains our view that the real headwinds facing China’s banking system are structural (i.e. NOT cyclical) in nature.
  • For those of you seeking a greater understanding of those risks, please review our recent short-China presentation, as well as the compendium of hyperlinked research notes and slide decks found at the conclusion of this note. As always, if you or anyone on your team has questions on China, please feel free to reach out to us via email at any time. We always look forward to engaging in thoughtful dialogue with clients.

 

CHARTS OF THE DAY

A 5Y chart of China’s Shanghai Composite Index tells a pretty rough tale of a country in economic transition (click HERE & HERE for historical context):

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS OR IS CYPRUS JUST A SMALLER VERSION OF CHINA? - 1

 

A 6Y chart of China’s Shanghai Composite Index tells an even rougher tale of an economy with a formerly world-beating, internationally-attractive growth model that is now squarely in the rear-view mirror (click HERE & HERE for historical context):

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS OR IS CYPRUS JUST A SMALLER VERSION OF CHINA? - 2

 

A 10Y chart of China’s Shanghai Composite Index overlaid with Cyprus’ FSTE Stock Exchange 20 Index tells a rather damning tale of two countries that once lived large on financial excesses and are now facing up to the harsh realities of rapid credit expansion and adverse selection – not the least of which is structural liquidity constraints across the financial system (click HERE, HERE & HERE for more details):

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS OR IS CYPRUS JUST A SMALLER VERSION OF CHINA? - 3

 

THE PBoC [FINALLY] COMES TO THE RESCUE… WELL, SORT OF

Down another -5.8% on its overnight lows, the SHCOMP rallied sharply intraday to close essentially flat on a rumor that the PBoC CSRC, CBRC and CIRC were going to hold a joint press conference to discuss recent market developments and banking liquidity. For now, that mega joint press conference remains a Hilsenrath-style rumor – and somewhat unlikely given the generally silo’ed nature of China’s regulatory branches.

 

Also supportive of the intraday rally in Chinese equities and the pacifying of money market rates was commentary out of Ling Tao, deputy head of the PBoC’s Shanghai branch, which was affirmed by a broader PBoC statement (bold emphasis our own):

 

  • “The People’s Bank of China has provided liquidity to some financial institutions to stabilize money-market rates and will use short-term liquidity operations and standing lending-facility tools to ensure steady markets.”
  • “With the elimination of seasonal and emotional factors, interest-rate fluctuations and the tight liquidity situation will gradually ease.”
  • “Financial institutions’ cash reserves stood at about 1.5 trillion yuan ($244 billion) as of June 21, compared with the 600 billion yuan or 700 billion yuan sufficient under normal circumstances to cover payment and clearing needs. The present liquidity is not insufficient.”
  • “We’ll closely monitor the change of liquidity within the banking system going forward, flexibly adjusting liquidity management based on international payments and the liquidity demand-and-supply situation.”
  • “The PBOC will strengthen communications with market institutions, stabilize expectations and guide market interest rates within reasonable ranges.”
  • “Banks should handle fluctuations in liquidity calmly and avoid irrational behavior.”
  • “The PBOC will provide liquidity support to those banks with temporary needs if they are lending to help the economy. For banks with liquidity-management problems, the PBOC will take corresponding measures according to circumstances to ensure broader market stability.”

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS OR IS CYPRUS JUST A SMALLER VERSION OF CHINA? - 5

 

It’s worth noting that the final point should be taken in the context of Chinese authorities seemingly preparing the country to handle a large-scale, domestic banking crisis – which we still view as improbable over the intermediate-to-long-term.

 

It’s also worth noting that the “if they are lending to help the economy” clause should be taken as a direct shot across the bow to lenders that have been contributing to widespread speculation in China’s fixed assets investment bubble (i.e. all of them). We reiterate our view that Chinese policymakers no longer consider FAI as a sustainable or desired engine for economic expansion and employment/labor income growth.

 

Moreover, that policy shift is extremely negative for industrial commodity prices and anything tangentially linked to the mining CapEx bubble (email us if you’d like to connect with our Industrials Sector Head, Jay Van Sciver, regarding his list of short ideas within this theme).

 

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

As outlined in a research note published early yesterday afternoon, we do think China’s cyclical banking system woes are: A) near fully priced in on an immediate-term basis and B) near fully understood by market participants – inclusive of today’s front-page WSJ callout. As such, we would expect to see a relief rally of sorts at some point over the immediate-term, as speculators follow through thanks to additional clarity out of the PBoC and what may morph into USD-debauching, anti-tapering headlines out of the Federal Reserve.

 

IS CHINA THE NEXT CYPRUS OR IS CYPRUS JUST A SMALLER VERSION OF CHINA? - 4

 

We are however, inclined to fade any relief rally as the SHCOMP approaches its immediate-term TRADE line of resistance up at 2,123. That’s approximately +5.2% higher from today’s closing price – which actually took out the near 4Y lows established in DEC ’12. It remains our view that the real headwinds facing China’s banking system are structural (i.e. NOT cyclical) in nature.

 

For those of you seeking a greater understanding of those risks, please review our recent short-China presentation, as well as the compendium of hyperlinked research notes and slide decks found at the conclusion of this note. As always, if you or anyone on your team has questions on China, please feel free to reach out to us via email at any time. We always look forward to engaging in thoughtful dialogue with clients.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

 

  • IS OUR BEARISH THESIS ON THE CHINESE FINANCIAL SYSTEM PRICED IN YET? (6/24): On an immediate-term basis, yes. On an intermediate-to-long-term basis, no. A crisis appears unlikely, but structural headwinds will remain.
  • THE CHINESE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS FREAKISHLY STRESSED (6/19): There appears to be no end in sight for desert-like liquidity conditions across the Chinese financial system.
  • REPLAY PODCAST AND SLIDES: ARE YOU SHORT CHINA [AND OTHER EMERGING MARKETS] YET? (6/12): We think the outlook for Chinese credit growth is structurally impaired. Moreover, we anticipate that growth in non-performing loans will accelerate sustainably over the long term. Lastly, we believe that net interest margins across the Chinese banking industry face immense regulatory headwinds that may ultimately have dire consequences for China’s fixed assets investment bubble. At a bare minimum, investors should steer clear of these obvious value traps over the intermediate-to-long term. Moreover, we continue to believe assets linked to Chinese industrial demand will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future.
  • IS CHINA PREPARING FOR SYSTEMIC FINANCIAL RISK? (6/10): Recent policy developments call attention to the systemic risks facing China’s banking system. Additionally, MAY growth data came in soft.
  • IS A RATE HIKE(S) COMING DOWN THE PIKE IN CHINA? (6/4): No change to our dour view of China’s TREND-duration growth outlook or the pending bifurcation of FAI and consumption growth.
  • IS THE RECENT RALLY IN CHINESE EQUITIES SUSTAINABLE? (5/17): We do not think the recent strength in the Chinese equity market is sustainable, as China’s 2H13 growth outlook appears dicey at best.
  • WHY IS CHINA GOOSING ITS EXPORT FIGURES AND HOW MUCH LONGER WILL IT CONTINUE? (5/8): Chinese firms are goosing exports to drive incremental liquidity into the banking system – a phenomenon that appears set to slow from here.
  • TWO CHINAS? (5/1): Financial system headwinds continue to outweigh consumption tailwinds within the Chinese economy.
  • REPLAY: Will China Break? (4/30): The Party’s use of state owned banks to drive economic growth through fixed asset investment has left the financial system loaded with bad assets.  The bad assets mirror bad investments in the real economy.  They also can limit the ability of Chinese banks to make new loans.  Following the financial crisis, the Chinese government pushed too hard on the FAI growth lever, building infrastructure projects “for the next 10 years.” It has also left the banking sector choked with bad debts that may limit future lending.  Those factors should slow Chinese FAI growth and slower Chinese FAI growth should be negative for commodity prices and resource-related profits, all else equal.
  • CAN CHINA AVOID FINANCIAL CRISIS? (4/26): The risk of a Chinese financial crisis is heightened to the extent that financial sector reforms are not appropriately managed.
  • REPLAY: EMERGING MARKET CRISES (4/23): We currently see a pervasive level of risk across the emerging market space at the country level and have quantified which countries are most vulnerable. China is particularly vulnerable to experiencing a financial crisis.
  • BEST IDEAS UPDATE LONG CHINA (NOT); SHORT YEN (4/19): We anticipate the impact of recent and pending regulatory measures to continue weighing on both economic growth and investor sentiment across the Chinese economy.
  • IS CHINA CAREENING TOWARDS FINANCIAL CRISIS? (3/28): Systemic risks are present across China’s financial sector – as is the political will and fiscal firepower needed to avert a crisis.

real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

next