Vegas will likely post a double-digit gain in May gaming revenues.
Owing to an easy comparison and solid airport traffic, we estimate Strip gaming revenues may have climbed 14-18% YoY. Of course, we are assuming normal hold for slots and tables. Last May, the Strip held high on slots and low on tables.
In addition to the easy table hold comparison, slot volumes were surprisingly low in May of 2012, down 6.7%. Baccarat drop was also low, down 22% last year. We expect to see that volumes were strong YoY in May, benefiting from those easy comparisons.
Nevertheless, we would expect the Street to view the Vegas numbers favorably when they are released by the Nevada Gaming Commission in a couple of weeks. Improving LV results over the near-term and the strong Macau performance of MGM Macau has us liking MGM on the long side of a trade. Longer-term, we remained concerned with the demographics of fewer slot players domestically and the headwind that trend should provide.
Here are our projections for May on the Las Vegas Strip:
