SLOWER WEEK IN MACAU BUT NO CHANGE IN OUR FORECAST

Average daily table revenues were HK$775 million which is down considerably from last week’s ADTR of HK$1,094 million.  However, we were expecting the drop so our full month YoY GGR growth projection of +16-20% remains intact. 

 

We know there is a lot of focus in the investment community regarding the credit situation in China and the fairly dramatic stock market sell-off.  We would caution investors not to read too much into the weekly numbers as it relates to China macro.  There is typically a lag from the impact of tightening credit and liquidity on the Macau junkets.  No doubt there is reason to be concerned over the intermediate term but we are still expecting almost 20% YoY GGR growth in July.

 

It is likely that a sell-sider will run with a negative Macau call on one of these weekly releases with the declining credit narrative.  The fear in the investment community and the potential for the sell side to jump the gun should create more volatility and trading opportunities.  Our bias is on the long side of the trade FOLLOWING one of these negative calls/sell offs, again since we expect solid numbers through July.

 

MPEL is our favorite play on weakness given the earnings upside and solid market share gains.  Indeed, MPEL picked up share this past week and is close to its 3-month trend.  MGM also looks attractive on weakness and their Macau share is well above trend.  Galaxy also continues to outperform in June.

 

SLOWER WEEK IN MACAU BUT NO CHANGE IN OUR FORECAST - m1

 

SLOWER WEEK IN MACAU BUT NO CHANGE IN OUR FORECAST - m2


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