THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 24, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 56 points or 1.66% downside to 1566 and 1.86% upside to 1622.                  

                                                                                                             

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.22 from 2.16
  • VIX closed at 18.9 1 day percent change of -7.76%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Natl Activity Index, May (prior -0.53)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manuf Activ, June, est. -1.8 (pr -10.5)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b debt in 2019-2020 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo. bills, $25b 6-mo. bills
  • 1pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in London
  • U.S. Weekly Rates Agenda

GOVERNMENT:

    • Supreme Court begins what is scheduled to be the final week of its term and may rule on cases including:
    • Affirmative-action dispute over whether the University of Texas may consider race in admissions
    • Calif. initiative banning same-sex marriage, law denying federal benefits to legally married gay couples
    • Whether Voting Rights Act can require some states to get “preclearance” from federal government before changing voting rules
    • Obama meets with business leaders on immigration overhaul
    • Senate cloture vote on border-security amendment to immigration bill, 5:30pm
    • Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte vote on the nominations of Howard Shelanski to be OMB administrator, Daniel Tangherlini to be administrator of the GSA, 5:30pm
    • Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte hearing on “Curbing Prescription Drug Abuse in Medicare,” 3pm
    • Washington Weekly Agenda
    • U.S. demands Russia expel Snowden as he seeks Ecuador asylum

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Vodafone reaches $10.1b deal to acquire Kabel Deutschland
  • Rio Tinto to keep diamond unit after scrapping sale plans
  • Google confirms FTC has contacted co. over Waze acquisition
  • China may fine-tune policy as cash squeeze threatens growth
  • Facebook working on newspaper for mobile devices, WSJ says
  • DZ Bank drops MBS suits against JPMorgan over ~$645m
  • BP acted w/gross negligence in 2010 spill, plaintiffs say
  • Apple CEO Cook adjusts bonus in shift to performance rewards
  • Fiat said able to triple Chrysler payout after refinancing
  • Hostess’s Twinkies back on store shelves nationwide in July
  • AIG revives plane unit IPO after extending China sale deadline
  • N.Y. lawmakers set aside bill threatening to cut Tesla sales
  • Gartner says PC, tablet, mobile shipments to rise 5.9% in 2013
  • ENRC founders, Kazakhstan make bid valuing miner at $4.7b
  • U.K. regulator said to study banks’ share-sale lockup waivers
  • Oracle to reveal plans for cloud-computing expansion, FT says
  • German business confidence rises for 2nd month on recovery
  • Obama to announce emission curbs on power plants tomorrow
  • Disney’s “Monsters,” with $82m, tops Pitt’s zombies
  • Autos probably led consumer spending up: U.S. Wkly Eco Preview
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Real Estate, Transports
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • U.S. Supreme Court, EU Summit, Wimbledon: Wk Ahead June 24-29

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Leads Industrial Metals Lower as China Adds to Oversupply
  • Gold Wagers Slump as $55 Billion Erased From Funds: Commodities
  • LME Looking at Feasibility of Clearing Products in Yuan, Li Says
  • Brent Trades Near Three-Week Low on Concern China Growth to Slow
  • Gold Drops With Silver on Fed Outlook as Goldman Cuts Forecasts
  • Rubber Trades Near Lowest in Nine Months on China Demand Concern
  • Shanghai Rebar Falls on Liquidity Crunch and Stock Market Slump
  • Freeport Indonesia Set to Increase Open-Pit Mining After Restart
  • Indian Jewelers to Halt Gold Bar, Coin Sales to Retail Buyers
  • China Moves Production Overseas to Avoid EU Solar Duties: Energy
  • White Sugar Near 3-Month High on Limited Supplies; Coffee Gains
  • Copper Stockpiles at Decade High as Warehouses Lure Excess Metal
  • Gold’s 2 1/2-Year Low Extending Below $1,200: Technical Analysis
  • LME Woos China’s Metal Traders as Shanghai Vies for Global Stake

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more