The only good thing that’s happened this week from a global macro fundamental research perspective (which is different than the quantitative signaling perspective) is of course that the US Dollar has recaptured its trend line of support.
That line is 81.11. The corollary to that line for the Yen versus the Dollar is 96.18. Watch those lines very closely.
This is a good thing. It breaks down the oil price. And it keeps commodity deflation in play.
Obviously YTD the best place to be has been short commodities, long consumption. The CRB Index is down about 5.5% YTD versus the S&P 500 which is up about 12%.
By the way, what we’re having right now is a correction in equities, not a crash. What would provide additional support for just a correction instead of a crash would be #StrongDollar.
What we do not want is for Ben Bernanke to back off what he said. We need him to taper. The only thing that will keep the Dollar up is tapering.
Our Central-Planning Fed Overlords need to get out of these ridiculous programs and eliminate these ridiculous expectations that we’re going to have ridiculously low, zero percent interest rates for the rest of your life.
(Editor's Note: This commentary comes from from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's morning conference call. If you would like to learn more, please click here.)